Haven't had a chance to preview this but there's a "pretty good" chance Jim will throw spaghetti at the model fans. Not worried about the Gulf.... SSTs will drop even more from the upwelling with the current storm.
Weather patterns are now visible through the third week of November, and show no tropical cyclone formation. Trusting to luck for the rest of November, I’ll call it ended. Let the assessments begin.
2024 results were (assuming November finishes quietly) 18 Named storms 11 Hurricanes 5 Major Hurricanes Of the 12 predictions shown at https://hurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Forum:2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season Two were correct on named storms, and the other ten were high. Nine were correct on hurricanes, one was low (9) and two were high (12). Six were correct on major hurricanes, three were low (3 or 4) and one was high (6). In summary, named storms were over predicted, and hurricane predictions were accurate. I commented early on that hurricane predictions are getting ‘tighter’ through time. It could be assessed if their accuracy as a group is improving through time. I think it is, but do not have a link for that right now. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms 7 hurricanes 3 major hurricanes So 2024 was an above-average year. Highest totals on record Named storms was 30 (set in 2020), Hurricanes was 15 (set in 2005), Major hurricanes was 7 (set in 2005). So 2024 was not the highest on record. The longest record of reconstructions is HURDAT2 extending back to 1851. I don’t know if it has been examined for higher totals. HURDAT2 does not have satellite data for most years, and it may have missed storms that would have been named (ships at sea not being everywhere). Less likely to have missed hurricanes. The possibility that some year before 1851 had more hurricanes cannot be excluded. Predictions for 2025 will commence in 2024 December by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) with others to follow in 2025 April and May. == Hurricane landfalls and damages are separate topics from count totals. 2024 was not a gentle year for those.
Too many words though, right? == I did find this accounting apparently derived from HURDAT2: ATLANTIC HURRICANE NUMBERS BY YEAR Assuming accurate work, there were no years after 1850 equaling or beating N Atl Hurricane totals I wrote above. Further, there were no 'nearly' years for topical storms when ships at sea could realistically have missed enough. I suppose witnessing ships could have sunk though == In 1961, TIROS3 satellite made first tropical cyclone observations from orbit.
Season summaries: Record-Breaking Winds and Shocking Damage: What Made 2024's Hurricanes Unforgettable The weirdly hyperactive 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends » Yale Climate Connections US Congress is now in (last) session and will (?) pass a 'continuing resolution' including disaster relief, It might include $100 billions Biden request for hurricanes damage.
Islands of Mayotte are between Madagascar and Africa. Now recovering from hurricane fatalities might reach 1000. Things are very messed up there.
geo dictionary: Typhoon vs Hurricane vs Cyclone To which I would add taifeng in China. Other countries may also use local terms. Typhoon may be derived from that. Cyclone from the Greek. I used hurricane (from Taino huracan) in thread title, which locked me in sort of. == Still not much reported from Mayotte. I have seen a few photos with structural disassembly etc. Because building standards vary, that may not inform much about wind energy delivery. Certainly informs about how people will live after but I'm going elsewhere. Trees are more consistent reporters. Leaves detach consistently (with some exceptions). If tree stems lost branches, that shows things were knowably serious. Not done here, because photographers may not be aiming for 'random sampling'. When people study wind energy delivery, they do random sampling. Described in Methods section etc.
