It's name did revert from "Cape Kennedy" back to "Cape Canaveral" more than a half century ago. Officially, 51 years ago yesterday. Did Port Canaveral ever have the K name?
Nope. They got hit by a bullet, but it turned out to be a smaller round, traveling more slowly, striking a less vital area. As the jarheads would say..... 'It sucked less.' According to my locals, Milt went ashore as a Cat 2 in Siesta Key....FORTUNATELY. The good news is that people listened and mostly made necessary preps. The bad news is that, as always, poorer people will be disproportionally impacted by evac expenses and might listen to the next "you're gonna die!!!" predictions with a little more foolish skepticism. This happened famously in Nawluns post Katrina, where people executed their GTFO plans for what resulted in a couple of fairly wimpy hurricanes. People always opine that poor people can use local shelters for free, but usually not people who know much about poverty.....or hurricanes. Shelters leave pets to fend for themselves, and most poor people who own cars cannot afford to have it washed away by a storm surge - so they have to make more painful decisions than whether or not to put up their prefabricated window coverings and when to leave. The NHFC made the right call for Milt, because wind sheer might have been less pronounced, upwelling from previous storms may not have impacted SSTs as much, and the NWS may not have biased the speed of advance for the system that nudged Milt to the South the way that they did. When it comes to hurricane forecasting, especially intensity modeling, weather guessers are necessarily paid pessimists. I like where the NWS is going with using AI with some of the data sets - but the military has a famous saying about intel weenies: "We bet YOUR life!" WAIT A MINUTE!!!! WHO IS THIS???!!!! The @bisco I know never uses caps!!
Milton path: That "notch" on the Florida east coast is Kennedy Space Flight Center. On the approach, the winds would have been directly into the estuary. Once the center passed, the wind driven sea water would still have access from the North. Bob Wilson
Many cars got flooded. Up to you if you want to buy one. Almost 350,000 Cars Damaged In Hurricane Season May Be About To Hit The Used Market
A few more N Atl storms may develop in November but it's almost time to compare seasonal predictions to results. Counts now stand at 16 named storms (23 predicted) 10 hurricanes (11 predicted) 4 major hurricanes (5 predicted) Named storms were overpredicted and other categories were well predicted. A couple of named in November won't fix that. So judge as you will. Not predicted (by any organization I know of) is seasonal cost of landfalling storms. This has been high in 2024 with H. Beryl in TX and Florida and southeastern states doubleheader.
2024 predictions were unusually similar even though I did not post all of them. All seem to have settled on similar model weightings. One prediction usta diverge from the group, to be crowned or canned. Those days may be gone. Judith Curry's weather prediction company may predict seasonal damages and locations. I think one would need to subscribe to find out.
The first post-election prediction (so to speak) is that TS Rafael will become a cat 1 hurricane before arriving at Louisiana/Alabama coast or thereabouts.
Just ordered a maintenance service call for my Generac. November is the peak tornado month in the Fall. See OKC.
My first hasty incomplete parse of #111 had me wondering who TS Rafael was and why he or she would become a cat.
Hurricane Rafael is proving hard to model. First it became stronger than expected. Next, some models have it going towards Louisiana, but others indicate towards coastal Mexico. Things may clarify after it crosses western Cuba.
Tropical cyclones hitting US from 1930 to 2015 may have caused more mortality than previously thought: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07945-5
I'm still 'left of bang' but this seems to ME (thus far) to be 'panic porn' for people who get bucks for clicks. Temps in the Northern Gulf are no longer bath water warm....and it's fall, y'all. This means frontal systems will knock the tops off of those nasty water pumps out over the Gulf, which is why people a little north of me (looking at YOU @bwilson4web ) are doing maintenance on their (other) home power systems. sorry... Sadtrombone.com
Funny you mentioned this. My schedule: Sunday Nov 17 - arrive Port Isabel TX with favorite dog Monday Nov 18 - planned launch Starship #6, 5 PM (no fog but weather delay possible) Wednesday Nov 20 - drive home and visit solar contractor team to go over requirements Home again with video
