H. Helene is still in the news. I happened to read an article somewhere on internet saying “Florida panhandle and Florida Keys have no hurricanes”. I hope it was written by AI because humans can’t be that clueless (right?). Whence sprang first of a possible series on regional storm swaths, N. Florida including panhandle this time. It begins in 2004 with Ivan, and such analyses cannot start much earlier because Natl Hurricane Center did not archive wind swaths. Tropical storm (TS) wind swaths are the less-scary color. Heavy rain and coastal storm surges came with each storm, but are not shown. 2004 H. Ivan was big and has only faded by comparisons with worse 2005 hurricanes nearby. From 2006 through 2015 the region had no hurricane winds, and several years had not even TS winds. But it would not have been wise to generalize from lulls. This region has been frisky since 2016 H. Hermine and has not calmed. Yet it would not be wise to suppose that global warming is a singular cause either. North Atlantic storms are higher overall from this with some confidence. But of about 100 hurricanes and several hundred TS during, most go elsewhere. Global warming has its thumb on the scale but it is a big thumb and not specific to regions. We can see something in this about how far hurricane winds reach inland. H. Helene may have reached further than earlier Michael and Idalia, but not by a lot. I had wondered about that. In summary, this region gets average one TS per year and one H per 3 years. I suppose a large fraction of total rain comes from them. They are not ‘just another Tuesday’.
jeanne is interesting to me because we bought our orlando timeshare in feruary 04, and there wasn't any damage in 2005. i can't be sure if the red part is over orlando though. there was one hurricane that ripped a lot of roofs off and downed a lot of trees, but i feel it was a bit more recent. my brother has been in the naples area for 20 years and hasn't seen much, fortunately.
A LOT of homes were lost. One reporter was talking about how the developers convince city planners to get approval to build communities in swamp lands and low-lying areas with little to no drainage which, if course, flood like this when a hurricane comes through. Time for city managers to quit bending over to developers and start doing their job of taking care of the PEOPLE who they are supposed to be representing and help take care of!
"climate experts living in ashville north carolina shocked by devastation" asheville-flooding-history-helene even though recent history has shown otherwise, they thought they were insulated from the worst.
1916 was the previous historical analogue: Worse Than 1916": Helene Shatters Asheville's Flood Record – iWeatherNet, == Oh Baaab. Adiabatic lapse rates are 5.3 oF per 1000 feet (dry) and 3.3 oF per 1000 feet (wet). In common scientific units, 10 oC/1000 M and 6 oC /1000 M (dry and wet). As average atmospheric is between dry and wet, one can manage with a single number, 6.6 oC /1000 M. Easy enough to remember especially if you fudge it a bit to 6.66 (sign of the EkatosBeast ) Many 'pop' explanations of mountain effects on air (and thus its water) refer to it being squeezed. This is amusingly opposite of true. Instead the lifted air is unsqueezed, allowed to expand, as there is less weight of atmosphere above it to do squeezing. So that parcel of atmosphere expands, cools, and loses some capacity to carry water vapor. What was ocean water a day or so before falls as rain on windward mountain slopes, gravity sends it back towards the nearest ocean, and folks near local river conduits observe it (and sometimes their houses) making the trip. == The surprising thing for me is that it took about 107 years for history to repeat itself on this scale. A lot of large tropical storms track up the E coast and even offshore (1916 villain was offshore until Rhode Island). Many of those would have sent seawater-evap towards Appalachians and on similar journeys. Maybe the mountains are just too dang small. They were much taller during the squeeze (real squeeze) that build Pangaea. 250 million years of hurri-caning have worn them down.
Oops. 1916 precursor storm that wetted up soils was offshore. The big boy was #4 https://www.tropicalweather.net/picts/seasonal/1916-tracks.PNG
Once again, west Florida's pleasure craft fleet has no way of knowing that they ought to relocate. Before Wednesday->Thursday (soon to be) H. Milton focuses attention on Tampa Bay area. Paradise Lost indeed.
In Autoline TV, they were bemoaning low car sales. Between Helene and the upcoming Milton, car sales should increase. Bob Wilson
Nice article discussing storm surge: https://www.weather.gov/media/owlie/surge_intro.pdf This one reminds me of the 1900 Galveston hurricane only this time with warnings. Bob Wilson
Hillsborough and Pinelas counties combined population 2.45 million Florida County Map and Population List in Excel
They need to send gasoline trucks into Florida stock up the gas stations NOW! I dread what the traffic jams will be like. Bob Wilson
i'm just going by a naples hurricane map which showed the are affected line just south of bonita springs, but perhaps that is because it was a naples map.
If we catch the right part of the eyewall replacement cycle, and get a nudge to the south - I can imagine Milton coming ashore as a Cat 2 with the wet side on the other side of the bay. Already being done according to fake news. They're even putting some portable charging stations in for people who can't take a can of amps with them. Florida is being run by a horrible Presidential candidate but a pretty effective Gov.
it looks like they might get some flooding. that happened a year or two ago, but they were further inland than the water.
