2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Could be worse. For those in evacuation areas, it already is.

At times like this, I think about dams built of less study stuff than concrete + rebar.

 

If you see a footprint of a tiger (or T. rex), you will realize the area is not safe. Humans 'realize' effectively from observations at their scales of time and space.

If you see a landscape like this:



You are much less likely to realize the area is not safe. It is extremely unusual and yet time-and space-scale of dangers evades general notice. For >99% of time it is lovely, but otherwise will eat you up. Invisible only because of limitations of seeing.

 

Hotspot for geology field trips (when weather is favorable). Modern technology of ground-penetrating radar much expands their seeing.

Modern communication has told about 1.3 million people to go far away.

Cape Hatteras and its lighthouse on wheels:

Cape Hatteras Lighthouse - Wikipedia

 

I was quietly including such structures with earthen dams, in context of hydrologic extremes. Perhaps they are too different for that. Anyway, get rain (qpf7) forecast here:

WPC 5- and 7-Day Total Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

and map of coal ash ponds somewhere else and see what leaks ( ) out.

In any case, big rain seems assured at this point. More than half of NC and VA with more than 7 inches. Much work for river channels. Storm surge seems very large this time. Twelve hours ago some models had stall near coast, which would be bad rain news. Like Texas' Harvey. Has gone away in newest models.

For winds we can note that NC and VA are gently sloped a long way inland. Until Appalachian Mtns. This allows big winds to go as far as possible until friction eats them. If forced to put a number on that I'd meekly say 50 miles. Important to note that 'friction' here includes damaging buildings, taking down trees and structural poles, and other things that cost money.

Outlook is not cheerful.

FEMA gets another chance at bat.

Navy has emptied Norfolk of ships to a large extent, so I understand.

 

While most Atlantic hurricanes follow 'climatology' (as things have gone before), a few follow apparently novel paths. Florence is most recent of those. If nothing else it suggests that predictions based on climatology will sometimes fail.

Further emphasizes value of how things are now done. Steering currents, shear and ocean heat content patterns. Big 3 unless I'm wrong.

 

Unfortunately Florence is presently only #2 global hurricane. Mangkhut is bigger and stronger. It will say hello to northernmost Philippine Islands. Then weaken over cooler water before Hong Kong.

 

Water vapor (temperature) colors by NHC

 

Surf''s up. Like 10 meters up. If no surfers become crab food this time, it might be a first.

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