2010 Model disappointing to me

i think you would have heart attack if toyota released phev prius first

 

Why? I fully expect that Toyota will introduce a PHEV Prius before GM launches the Volt. A plug in Prius is easy, Toyota could do it today if they wanted to. However, when the PHEV Prius does come to market, I expect that it will have a 5 to 10 mile electric range. Such a limited range doesn't do much for me. Like a Hymotion conversion the fuel savings will not come anywhere near paying for the upgrade and still doesn't allow me to do the majority of my driving in EV mode.

I want a EV and would rather pay $35,000 for a 50 mile EV than a 10 mile PHEV.

 

My guess is that the top-end model will be priced around $35K.

Yes, this is correct.

 

I don't see why the LED headlights would affect MPG. PRICE? Apparently so. I've only seen mention that they are expensive, though they should last the life of the car.

I think it is unfortunate that many of the features are packaged as Toyota decides a generic buyer would want them. It would be better if the buyer could decide they want the solar roof/vent system and 17" wheels but not the sun roof, want LED headlights, sun roof but not NAV. Make the BIG features individually selectable. If someone really wants the weight of the sun roof and solar roof and the drag of the 17" tires, well, then let them buy that. If Toyota is concerned about the MPG hit, don't offer 17" tires or sun roofs.

 

I think this is true, to a point. A PHEV Prius might get me to trade in early (8 to 10 years is normal). Even if they had not degraded (in my opinion) many of the interior ergonomic features of the Gen II, none of the things that I DO see as improvements (primarily unseen tech stuff and the better seats) would tilt me toward purchase of a 2010 unless I NEEDED a car.

 

checkout this website, and this video:
Better Place || Press Room || Videos Detail || Whats Better Place

many people are not willing to wait any longer, better place is already partnering with countries (Israel), car mfrs (Renault), etc.

My 2004 only just passed 60K miles, and is still running fine. If I have to wait for 2010 or 2011 MY for a full EV, or the Chevy Volt (which has the range extender, an idea I like), I will. There is no reason Toyota can't retrofit 2010's with better battery packs, and offer some EV, the fact they say it is not going to be offered it what really gets me... since they are outright lying. There will be several third party mfrs to offer larger battery packs for the 2010 MY, for some extended EV (probably 5 or 10 miles worth)

Mitch

 

There is no FE benefit replacing the 2010 with a Li pack with same capacity.

If a larger Li pack, 5kWh, is available, unless conversion also include the plugin conversion, there is no FE benefit either. If Toyota is going to provide this, it will cost more than Hymotion is now. There is no marketing incentive to do so if the volume is not there.

 

I'm also disappointed in the lack of real mileage gains. But I am very disappointed with the design changes. I don't like the look of the new headlights or front end. But I am especially displeased with the new interior. The 2004-9 Prius had an interior that looked spacious and make real efficient use of every little nook and cranny. The new 2010 has a stupid looking "bridge" between the dash and the front seat. It looks like the sole purpose is to move the gear shift there. I visually makes the car look cramped and stupidly takes up space.

For that reason I've decided to sell my 2005 and get a 2009. That will be my retirement car. I'll keep it 5-10 years until I can get really practical EV. Maybe Phoenix will have something by then.

For those wondering why I don't wait, I have CA. HOV stickers. They're still good for 2 years. If I wait much longer I won't be able to cash in on their value.

 

Toyota probably could release a limited range PHEV today Its battery might only last 2-3 years for some customers, which while expected by most EV fans would hardly be endearing to the general public. I think its pretty telling that A123, one of the premier (and consequently most expensive) manufacturers of lifepo4 type li-ion cells in the world only warranties their own plugin pack (the Hymotion L5) for 3 years. I think that gives a pretty clear indication of where we're at maturity wise, and the more affordable chinese or korean cells are considerably behind that. Thats not to say that there is anything wrong with the batteries available today (or 15 years ago for that matter). Its just the reality that it takes a lot of investment, time and testing to turn a mostly ready component into part of a complex system that is reliable under all conditions, shipping in volume at a reasonable cost. I don't think any major corporations have been making serious efforts in this area until recently. Toyota maybe being slightly less guilty than most, but only slightly. Now that they are its tough to make up for all that lost time. The current economic situation and price of gas probably aren't helping with their sense of urgency I fear. That certainly makes it critical that we keep the pressure on them.

I also strongly object to the assertion that short range PHEVs are a waste of time. I think starting with short range PHEVs make a lot more sense on a number of fronts, just as starting with HEVs made a lot more sense at the time.

1. Non-linear cost scaling: From design and cost perspective, doubling a performance spec often increases design and production costs by much more than a factor of two. For example, for a 10 mile PHEV you could probably still get away with using NimH. For a given capacity, NimH costs about half li-ion, but weighs twice as much. 10 miles of PHEV operation assuming 3mi/kWh and using 60% of the batteries total SOC range would require about 5kWh of capacity. Using batteries like those currently in the Prius this would weigh about 200 lbs, doable but getting hefty, and probably cost $3k. Switching to Li-ion cuts the weight in half for the same range, or doubles the range to 20 miles for the same weight. At the same range the cost would be 2x, or $6k, and at double the range the cost would be double again, or $12k. Now lets say we want to double the range again to hit the mythical 40 miles we all think we need. Now you are talking about a 400 lb + battery pack, that costs $24k. This is probably unacceptable, so you have to start making some hard engineering trades. You can reduce the battery weight/size/cost by increasing the range over which you exercise the SOC, but this has serious consequences. Lifetime of the battery is reduced, battery heating is likely to become more of an issue, and you need a much more sophisticated battery management system to make sure the individual battery cells stay balanced and in their safe operating ranges. Vehicle layout, form factor, handeling, suspesion are all constrained by the increased size and weight of the pack. All of that increases design and testing time, design costs, and vehicle cost due to increased complexity as well as greater liability for potential failures in the field under warranty. This probably gets us to a ~350 lb battery but still at ~$24k cost. So in this case we've gone from a $3k cost at 10 miles, to a $24k cost for 40 mile. Thats 4X the performance for 8X the cost plus more risk, longer schedule and compromises on the base vehicle. Eventually the higher volume of battery production may bring battery prices down faster, but only if it sells. For example, Tesla has proven that you can build a 200 mile high performance BEV today. Only down side is it costs $100k. Last estimate I heard, at least $55k of that is A123 Li-ion cells. At that price point, they're not exactly selling enough units to drive down battery costs. There are certainly other benefits to projects like this, in terms of driving public demand, proving feasibility etc, but I doubt few would argue that a shorter range, more modest performance vehicle at a reasonable cost would be more practical towards actually getting people into BEVs.

2. Diminishing returns. Americans in light duty vehicles drive about 3T (trillion) miles per year. With a ldv fleet average of 20mpg, thats about 150B (billion) gallons of fuel consumed per year. The average daily miles driven in the US is ~33, lets simplify that to 30 miles. Assuming the distribution about the average is fairly regular, we can make a rough guess of what percentage of the population drives how far on average in a day. Lets say 90% drive 10 miles or farther, 75% drive 20 miles or farther, 50% drive 30 miles or farther, 25% drive 40 miles or farther, and 10% drive 50 miles or farther and to simplify we'll compact everyone into these 5 bins. Lets also assume for the moment that everybody could drive a hybrid, and could find a place to plug in once a day. We'll also assume that somehow (incentives?) everyone can afford one of these cars. Lets assume a basic HEV system costs an extra $3k, and increases mileage to 40mpg. We'll assume PHEV's cost an extra $3k per 10 miles range, ignoring the potential non-linearity above for now. Lets assume that all PHEVs run full EV for their design range, and then revert to 40mpg. The exact numbers aren't that important, as we're chasing a basic idea here.

HEV: At an incremental vehicle cost of $3000, Fleet average improves to 40mpg. Incremental fuel savings 75B gallons/yr.

PHEV10: At an additional incremental cost of $3k, Fleet average improves to 60mpg. Incremental fuel savings 25B gallons/yr.

PHEV20: At an additional incremental cost of $3k, Fleet average improves to 100mpg. Incremental fuel savings 20B gallons/yr.

PHEV30: At an additional incremental cost of $3k, Fleet average improves to 200mpg. Incremental fuel savings 15B gallons/yr.

PHEV40: At an additional incremental cost of $3k, Fleet average improves to 600mpg. Incremental fuel savings 10B gallons/yr.

PHEV50: At an additional incremental cost of $3k, Fleet average improves to inf mpg. Incremental fuel savings 5B gallons/yr. LDV fleet consumes no fossil fuels.

Even with all these idealizing assumptions, in the near term, we can have a much bigger impact on our total national fuel consumption per dollar spent by getting people into HEVs and then short range PHEVs than trying to jump straight to long range PHEVs. I really want a BEV asap personally, but on a large scale I can see that the progression of HEVs to PHEVs to long PHEVs to BEVs makes sense. Over time as technology matures those incremental dollar costs come down.

3. Non-linear supply of demand. Its hard to avoid the fact that a lot less people can afford a $35k car, compared to a $25k car. The same could be said of a $25k car over an $18k car. Or an $18k car over a $12k car. On top of that, the less car someone can afford, the more they would probably benefit from an efficient vehicle. They have less ability to cope with fluctuating fuel costs, often have longer commutes and less flexible schedules causing them to commute at peak hours. Conversely, while there is a group of people who can both afford an expensive vehicle and desire one with the best possible efficiency, I fear they are in the minority. Of course there is a balance here somewhere. If an econo car is too boring, or the perceived benefit is not significant enough it won't gain traction. Personally I think that balance is much more along the lines of a $15k small 50mpg car, or a $25k PHEV10-20, rather than $40k PHEV40. I'm all for idealism and swinging for the fence, but ultimately if it doesn't sell in high volume its impact on the grand scale will be negligible.

I'm generally an idealist, and I think we have to keep the pressure on the automakers to keep on track. I think we really could make the switch to BEVs today, but it would take a massive government led effort, a manhattan project or apollo scale effort, with massive public support to pull off that kind of large scale transition with 5-10 years. I really think such a program should be launched, to get our LDV fleet off petroleum for good. Barring that, I'll take steady progress in the right direction over the stagnation of the last 30 years.

Rob

 

Project Better Place is a pretty interesting model, proposed by a pretty shrewd business man. It defrays the upfront cost of batteries etc, by recouping that cost over time with a subscription based charging service. Pretty interesting idea. Personally I'd rather get the cost of batteries down to a reasonable level, and then pay alot less for charging anywhere I please, like for free from solar panels on my own roof. However, this does at least provide a possible solution for how to get from here to there without a major government program.

BTW, why do you think Toyota actually has any more idea if their current car will be upgradeable to a future undefined form than GM has any idea what its as of yet undefined car will really cost or when it will be released? The 3G Prius is only ~4 months from hitting dealer lots, and Toyota still hasn't said (or isn't exactly sure) what it will cost, when it will be available, and what the options will be. I'd be shocked if either is accurately predicting what will happen in a year or two, or three. Lets not forget GM originally promised it would be shipping Volts about now.

For what its worth, I'm probably not going to run out and trade up to a '10 either. In fact I just bought a second 2G a few weeks ago, because the deals were good and I think the 2G is a fine car. That doesn't mean the 3G is a bad car, it looks really nice from pretty much all aspects. A very worthy successor. Maybe I was just had more realistic expectations about what the 3G would or wouldn't be. Of course, my mind could be changed either way once I finally get to see/drive one.

Rob

 

The problem is that they're made in Japan. They are in fact made well in advance put on a ship then when the ship arrives at say Long Beach or NY the dealers are given the vehicles that are on the ship. If and when the vehicles are made in Tupelo then there will be more flexibility. All Japanese-made models are like this.

Also the packages are not set in stone. Of these original 3 I'd expect that there will eventually be at least 5 offered to the general public. If those five don't move and there's input to offer a new set of packages then that will be done.

They are actually very responsive to market input...such as herein.

 

I'm not convinced of the extra weight of these items. OK 17" wheels and tires might weigh a little bit more than 15", but maybe not. Sometimes larger alloy wheels are lighter. And how much could a small radar transducer, small camera, and computer chip weigh?

 

The question that was posed was whether or not Toyota would offer a PHEV upgrade to the 2010, and the answer was no. The question was not whether it was possible to upgrade the 2010.

It would be very unusual for an auto mfr to offer an upgrade for a used vehicle. Do you see any manufacturer offering a powertrain upgrade for a used vehicle (i.e., installing a 6-speed transmission to replace a 4-speed; installing a larger engine, etc.) That is where the aftermarket comes in, as long as the customer is willing to deal with the associated warranty and reliability issues.

 

I suspect you would have headroom in a 2010. Just take the magic vertical seat height adjuster, pump the handle 'til seat bottom is all the way down, you'll have enough headroom even with a sunroof.

Try the same thing with an 09 Matrix with sunroof. You go from horrible headroom and legroom with seat all the way up to good headroom, legroom and thighs supported on seat ... all due to the adjuster.

 

Re: 2010 Model disappointing to me TOO

A number of professional reviewers find the 2nd Gen Prius to be a little underpowered and overweight. I would tend to agree.

Do you have any steep hills in your area? Ever tried to climb a steep hill with the current Prius? It feels pretty starved for power unless you floor it.

A 2009 Corolla 1.8L is rated at 132 HP with a 2745 lb. curb weight. The current Prius is 110 HP combined with 2,9xx lbs. So, it's quite a bit behind a Corolla for power/weight ratio.

Like efusco said above, Toyota is not trying to please the hypermilers with the Prius. Gas is $1.99 gallon here these days. Average Americans don't give a darn about getting 60 MPG in their cars.

Average Americans want a good looking car with more than adequate acceleration and that fits the family easily at a reasonable price. The 3rd gen will certainly be closer than the 2nd on these things IF the price is held in check.

 

Like said above, the typical American doesn't give one Iota about a car that gets maximum MPG, 60 or whatever, nor do they want to drive around in a tiny, underpowered little car, trying not to get run over by the Dodge Ram truck coming up from behind.

To me, the goal is to get more people into efficient, purpose-built hybrids. The 3rd Gen Prius will have a power/weight ratio more inline with the 09 Corolla, a benchmark small car. People will like the looks and acceleration of the new Prius more than the old. Hopefully the price doesn't spiral out of control.

If the 3rd Gen Prius starts roughly close to $23k - $24k as compared the 2009's starting price of $22k, I think it will outsell the Gen2s record easily.

 

+1 very well said!