Featured 20% of Americans say their next car will be electric

2010 - we had installed the very1st evse/J-plug in all of Orange County.
$2,100 !!
Aerovironment was the only game in town. So if you wanted 240v charging a paltry 3.6kW's - they had you by the short & curly's. Wind forward to THIS year?
$300
Future proof - can charge at over 17kW's. Competition - a good thing.
.

 

I think I have about $550 invested. Old neighbor was an electrician and the EVSE was on sale on Amazon and I had gift certificates. The neighbor put in an outlet for a welder years ago, so I just converted it over.
Funny thing is, I wouldn't be surprised if my EVSE is the only one in town.
The Wawa in the next town over has 8 Superchargers.

 

The cost will vary largely depending upon the person.

For example, the “charger” cost for the couple that bought our last house was $0, as the house was already equipped.
Others that are in moderate to warm climates and don’t go further than 30-40 miles a day, a 110V outlet may be sufficient.
In addition, someone like that may prefer a $8,000 used Leaf. The rebates don’t help the original purchaser, they lower the resale value.

That 20% will just grow as newer, less expensive tech becomes available.

 

musk admits he is crazy. we need crazy sometimes.

 

I got to thinking if 20% of the new car buyers buy EVs and if they spread those buys out over 6 or 7 years (allowing for the age of their current cars and the useful or desired life of the current cars) that isn't that much different from today's penetration rate.

 

It would be triple todays take rate and equal to the hybrid take rate.
Also, keep in mind that in 4 years, the number is likely to climb. So each year's worth of new buyers will also increase.

 

But if 20% say they will buy EVs, they aren't all buying this year or next. That 20% open to the notion has to be spread out. I choose over 6ish years as a mid point between buying now and how long people tend to keep cars. And the original article linked doesn't define electric vehicle so some portion of that 20% may spin off into a hybrid. And those who don't follow through with their professed intent have to be discounted too. Thus my hesitation to invest. Of course circumstances may change. Some supply disruption and/or gas price escalation might be increasingly persuasive. Even regulations changes might help though those don't seem to be helping for now.

 

All good points.
However, you again forget to add the people in the 80% that change their mind and buy electric sometime over the timespan.

 

Those are the folks who just bought a pickup with 7 year financing.

 

So, yes, this doesn’t in itself necessarily directly indicate that EVs will see a 20% uptick in sales next year. However, there are other positive indicators too, especially automakers introducing a lot more EVs models over the next several years. Standardization and thereby increasing roll-out of charging infrastructure is another.

In my personal view at least, there are three main enablers for this: First, Tesla almost singlehandedly changing the public image of EVs from golf carts to holy-freaking-crap super-cars. Second, and more recently and probably ultimately more importantly, China’s EV push.

 

I realize of course that you specifically cited your PiP in particular (reasonable), as opposed to the Prius in general. However, it’s probably fair to say that hybrids have indeed served as a proverbial gateway drug:

I at least believe that a big part of the popularity of hybrids can be attributed to the failure of the GM EV1, which of course was largely due to GM’s failure to sell it. California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) settled on hybrids instead (with an eventual goal of practical HFCVs, which is pretty dubious).

So, yes, a gateway drug...

As for me in particular, the main way my 2009 Prius served as a gateway drug, ironically perhaps was not as much in its electric drivetrain, but in its gasoline drivetrain! How? Well, we’ll maybe a better way to put it is in its computer’s control of the gasoline drive train: There are so many cases when that annoying, stupid-**** computer turns on the freakin’ ICE for no useful other than to waste gas, that it made me all the more zealous to find a car that doesn’t even have a %€@& ICE in the first place!

Now, admittedly, the Prius Prime we bought — almost exactly a year ago, BTW! — does still have an ICE, but it’s a Prius that FINALLY lets me almost never use its ICE!

 

Our first was a BMW i3-REx and still in the stable. When it broke, I had to pass our backup 2010 on to the next owner. The Prime became our new backup and it has worked out great.

Bob Wilson

 

It “passed on,” eh?

A couple of my colleagues have i3s, at least one of which has a rex. One of them drives 50 miles in to Southwestish Austin from Bastrop, the next large town/small city east-southeast of Austin. It’s something like 50 miles each way, after which he charges quasi-free at work (as do I, of course). So he puts like 100 miles/day on it. Says he’s only run a grant total of 1.8 gallons through the rex!