$12 Gas and Rationing? Possible, Says Expert

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but I don't think the answer is simply solar. Silicon-based PV panels use a lot of energy to create, thermal solar needs to be used more often than it is. And you need to get past the problem of winter nights/cloudy periods (thermal storage is one possibility). There's some really interesting work going on now with solar, particularly in the non-PV methods, like the solar towers in Spain and Australia, or the proposed solar seawater-desalinization plants.

I think our future will bring in a variety of energy sources, including the best way to bring supply and demand closer together - conservation. Biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol will definitely play a part. Airplanes for one can't run on batteries, at least not yet. How did you come up with the 90 terrawatts for all of bio energy? Huge amounts of lumber and forestry products are wasted. Right now a neighbor is putting an addition on their house, and the dumpster is filled with cut wood, destined for the landfill. Putting this, lawn clippings, switchgrass, etc. into cellulosic ethanol could probably produce as much ethanol as we're making right now, while not using or displacing any food crop in the process. Algae is a wildcard energy producer in the long term.

There's also geothermal power supply - most of the American west could be powered by geothermal sources only - pumping water deep down and capturing the steam (check out Ormat Technologies). As mentioned, Iceland currently gets most of their energy from geothermal sources, which is why they're pursuing hydrogen so strongly (unfortunately for all of us they aren't putting the same amount of research into battery EVs).

Of course there's also wind power which is ahead of solar power in the U.S., but again there's the issue of storing the energy for the calm periods. That's one of the arguments H2 proponents push - store the energy in H2 form (not that I think fuel cells will ever be competitive). I read an interesting proposal for a kite-based windmill, that gets the turbines up very high in the air where there's always some wind.

And finally there's hydroelectric. It has plenty of drawbacks, but I think we'll see it being relied on for a good while yet out of necessity. That's by far our largest source of renewable energy currently being produced.

But pretty much all of this is electric power, which means our transportation system needs a complete overhaul to make use of it. And we don't have an over-capacity of clean electricity currently, so these need to be ramped up. So the next couple decades will be a tough transition. Finally it seems some of the major car companies are coming forward with serious electric cars or at least plug-in hybrids. We needed this a decade ago (or more, if global warming scenarios come true), but maybe it will be enough for us to limp forward without getting into a 1930's-type Great Depression.

I really don't think we'll see $12/gallon in the next 2 years, but quite possibly in 5 years. It would have been interesting if Hirsch had included a date on his prediction. I'm sure he thought about that.

 

BTW Mr Hill I'm not a Bush fan. I found that part of your response offensive but the rest mediocre.

So when a refinery blows up some where in TX why does gas suddenly increase? Why is there a price ripple effect when some pipeline from Alaska pops open? In my opinion the limited number of refineries does contribute some to the high cost of gas. Here's something to read...
wcco.com - Good Question: Why Not Build More Oil Refineries?
Is this not a contributing factor? More drivers being added each day but same old production capacity limits?????

I do agree oil will peak so don't get me wrong. It's common sense- it's a limited resource. I'm just not sure it has in the middle east given the lack of full disclosure. They won't open their books! And I'm sticking to my guns we've pissed on that part of the world with our never ending war.

Sorry folks I get cynical especially with how the govt makes decisions- been there done that. We'll mine for shale even if we need to put a nuke plant next to the mine. We're that stupid. Let the comments roll but think outside your box.

 

Desalination is cheap enough now to make potable water for a few cents per liter. That should be cheap enough to use it for making fuel. The net reaction must be something like
12CO2 + 6H2O -> 2C6H6 + 15O2
so you get about 1.4 liters of fuel for each liter of water consumed. We shall see (soon, I hope; I'd happily buy fossil-free gasoline today at $5 per gallon if it were available).

 

I'm not saying that we can do it all with solar, your right all the technologies have a place (most anyway)

The 90 terawatt number came from a radio interview on npr Seattle from a Stanford prof who if you google him is (was then) the president of The Stimson/Bullet foundation. Most of these ideas came from that interview. You could search KUOW Seattle and find attribution.

As to the limitation of solar. Yes you have issues of cloudy days, night time etc but,,, Picture this. If we had a disparate set of solar panels in most every community in North America, grid tied, the aggregate total of sunny areas would roughly equal or better the cloudy ones on average. Second all the energy saved during the day that wouldn't be burned would be available at night (when demand is lower anyway) In addition, plug in hybirds disaggregated over the continent could add a huge reserve capacity both day and night.

My point is that we have to begin to take this seriously and not think we can drill our way out.

Icarus

 

I bet we could sweet-talk Danny into some green prize, maybe an LED light bulb. Uh no, you wouldn't need that. Maybe a sample solar panel...uh, maybe a book on EVs, uh, well hmmm ....

 

Thanks

Yes, V2G PHEVs or BEVs could even out the load, but that infrastructure would take time. Grid-tied distributed production makes sense to me. Put solar panels on parking lots and houses, windmills in the fields. Low profile ones can go on urban roofs with the right building design. In the short term solar power definitely makes sense as 'peaker plants' since they are usually needed on hot summer days. Solar will definitely grow, and I've been investing in solar stock for some time, and it's done fairly well for me, even with a shortage of solar-grade silicon (which is easing up now).

Disaggregated - that's a new word for me. A valid word according to Websters, but I think disseminated might be a better fit (sorry for my nitpicking, thanks for expanding my vocabulary).

Exactly right. Lot of people still not seeing this point.

 

Disaggregate in this case implies (to me) scattering the resource over multiple locations to reduce the chance of failure of any one component.

I agree that the infrastructure won't change over night, but if we had started seriously in 1973 with the first oil embargo we would be a long way down the road. The fact is that we have (as a society and as public policy) done almost nothing to address the problem.

As for investing in Solar and other RE. I am in the business of building and installing off grid remote systems so I know a bit of what I speak, the cheapest RE dollar comes through conservation. If you don't have to generate it you don't have to pay for it. We live well with tiny consumption by most standards,by doing simple things that conserve.

Icarus


PS A good solar forum for those that are interested is:Solar Electric Discussion Forum - Powered by vBulletin

Populated by some very sharp people.

 

Richard

Actually, a few cents a litre is quite a bit more than what refineries are now paying for process water.

By displacing from crude to air capture, you will note the process water consumption is almost as high as an oil refinery. To my thinking, the most cost-effective way to do this would be to build a CANDU-style reactor on the coast somewhere, and use the power to desalinate and run the operation

 

No offense meant. Similarly, no inference meant that anyone is/isn't a Bush fan or foe. With the Bush name, or without it, the idea is the same ... the world CAN'T drill their way out of a dwindling supply and ever upward spiraling demand for energy. The fact that refinery failures temporarily effect prices upward, ought to not cause a conspiracy doctrine to form. The refineries comes back on line, and the prices never come back down as low as before. It's still a simple case of supply & demand. It's not a staight line graph ... a little down, then more & more upward demand, as the supply shrinks, and world-wide demand increases are getting larger. China doubled their enery use in the last 10 years alone.
If you find the economics 101 theme mediocre, you're certainly entitled to your view. High probability is that neither of us is an oil expert, or a geologist. However, my opinion is that those who do KNOW the geophysics are correct ... and many concur, that we have peaked. My opinion is also that those who know the business/finance end of fossel fuel are correct, and I concur with their views too:

24/7 Wall St.: T. Boone Pickens: $150 Oil (EP, SD, XCO, CLNE, YHOO)

If you find their views mediocre, I guess the alternative is what, wait untill the world is really really really, super low on fuel researves? Now THAT is an offensive thought .... putting it off, and onto our kids and their kids. Will the solution be easier for them, when the crisis is larger? It's very easy to 'think' the solution is more drilling & refining & higher pressure pumping. What's NOT easy is researching a real solution, with real time, and real money, for an acceptable alternative.

Lastly, don't get hung up on that year old article you quoted, about no new refineries being built for decades. That's the drone of the emotional conspiracist. T. Boone Pickens and many others have already beat that dead horse, again & again. Think about it. If the oilies COULD make $$ with new refineries, don't you think they'd be all over it? You really think their lobby is so weak that they couldn't get even onerefinery built? Fact is, a refinery is amortized out over decades. And the oilies, knowing there isn't decades of production left for more refineries, well they'd be idiots to build them, just to make people feel good.

 

You do know this doesn't apply to fuels you put in your vehicle right? just about every lubricant we use... plastics... etc.

 

this discussion of hydrogen verses batteries seems to ignore the most likely long term solution of high density capacitors which has the advantage of weight, charge storage, time to charge, etc.

hydrogen does have advantages in that it can store energy produced at wind and solar sites.... although i doubt that any would need to be stored since both generate most of their power during peak demand. we have the technology now that relatively remote solar areas can still transport power far enough to get to the grid.

The Zenn Motor Company is "supposed" to introduce a 4 passenger BEV with 80 mph top speed and 80 mile range that can be quick charged in 3 minutes or trickle charged on home circuit in 8 hours that uses a 54 KWH capacitor that weighs 80 lbs.

as exciting as this sounds, like all new large leaps in performance, i have a wait and see attitude. as far as expected purchases goes. if they do as they say they will, that is my first choice purchase option over ANY OTHER announced products. it will fit over 95% of all my driving needs. with a charge station infrastructure, (granted, that would be YEARS away or several months under the best case fantasy scenario) it would cover all personal transportation needs.

launch date is fall 2009... am i excited???

no... tired of getting excited over nothing. when it comes out, IF it comes out, i WILL BE satisfied... because i will have one.

 

Dave,

From what I know of the solar Biz/technology, Hi capacity caps are (at this point) a non starter for a variety of reasons. For better or worse we are married to battteries for the time being.

Icarus

 

"at this time" they do have a lot of hurdles to overcome... but like i said, anytime new technology of this magnitude is announced, i dont get excited over it until its here.

so we shall see.

 

The EEStor ultracapacitor hasn't proven itself by any means but if it does it will be a major game changer!!

EEstor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Also you have to be impressed with the specs on this real SUV, which I think owes much of it's abilities to a marriage between a capacitor and a battery.

http://afstrinity.com/

 

I've been designing and building small scale, off grid solar installations for about 10 years. In the solar (PV especially) we have seen a lot of hype come and go,,,mostly go.

I'm all for pushing the envelope with cutting edge technology, but as we all well know, it is a long way from the lab and the prototype to A: general production (cost effective) and perhaps most importantly B: Consumer acceptance.


We have all been looking at better batteries, high cap caps, more efficient panels and inverters etc. The reality has been that the improvements have been made on the margins rather than in leaps. In fact the best advances have come through conservation. My small systems power way more stuff these days than ten years ago due to things like, cfl's, low power high ef. fridges, electronics etc.

We live 250 watts of panel, and have all the electricity we need for lighting, water pumping, electronics. Most days I am throwing capacity away. (I can't find enough use in full sun!

If we lived in a "normal" house, we could do the same with ~2000 watts.

Icarus

 

Global Warming and Peak Oil! :fear:

Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

The notion that if you wish for something hard enough it will happen is quite common. If you call it "prayer" it has widespread credence. And as long as all our elected officials subscribe to this view there is really no hope at all. Why spend money on a solution or lobby your elected reps to plan for the future when all you have to do is wish for the price of gas to come down?

Of course, the price of gas will very probably come down after labor day. It will drop between 5 cents and 10 cents from the high it hits over the weekend. Then as refineries switch to heating oil gas will resume its steady march upwards. But not to worry: It may take two or three years before gas hits $12 a gallon, and another year after that for it to hit $15.

 

That "ratchet effect" seems to fool most folks. I remember when gas here hit 75 cents a litre, folks claimed that if it went to 80 they'd stop driving.

So the price went up to 85 and folks shrieked, then went down to 77. Everybody breathed a collective sigh of relief "good it's cheap again"

When gas broke $1 a litre, same thing. $1.20 a litre, ditto. I just throw up my hands and don't even bother debating it

 

If you make excess power, and you are considering "making H2" to avoid losing that power, then you'll save a significant amount of money by simply adding more batteries. A home-based hydrolyzer will not only be insanely INnefficient, it will also be very expensive. Solar hydrogen does not beat batteries by any metric. And unless you have the room for a tank that is several billions of cubic feet, you'll have to expend a significant amount of energy just to compress the H2 into a tank for that easy "portability" factor that comes for free with batteries.

Honestly, there just is no comparison. Batteries are still the cheap, efficient solution to energy storage whem compared to H2. Nobody has EVER demonstrated differently in any practical way.