$12 Gas and Rationing? Possible, Says Expert

If we would walk/ride/mass transit when we *could* do it before we *have* to do it, we may never reach the disaster stage. You aren't seriously waiting for gas to pass $10 before you take some of these steps, are you?

Hope only gets us so far. We have to actually DO something to make it happen. And keepis gas prices low is the opposite of what we need to do - yet it seems to be the common "fix" we hear from our politicians. :deadhorse:

 

Just because it failed doesn't mean it wasn't part of the intent.

 

One "expert" says $12 gas. Another "expert" says 50 cents less by the end of the summer. Too many "experts" spoil the broth.

 

They both rely on the air for a key raw material, but do they use any of the same reactions? Anyway, if they can do it that cheap it will save the world.

 

$12 perhaps if no new refineries open and we keep our primary oil source coming from the Middle east. Highly doubt the U.S. of A would sit back and watch a economic disaster unfold. If gas approached these prices there would drilling in protected areas going on with no hesitation.
Also Oil Shale seems to be the logical choice to go after especially if it made economic sense. The Rockies are loaded with shale. I've read the price of land situated in these high dense shale areas have skyrocketed recently which leads me to believe this new oil revolution is about to begin.

Now I don't mean to piss people off here but for whatever reason my gut tells me this war, our president or both have pissed off the major OPEC members. It's a theory of mine. When we retire from the war or get a new president (or both) it will be interesting to watch what happens to the price of oil... within 60 -90 days thereafter.
b

 

Its worth reading what they author of the original quote actually predicted in his report to the DOE in 2005. Yeah, there are plenty of alternative sources, this guy was well aware of them. But in his estimation, they will take time on the order of a decade to ramp up to the scale needed to make up for declining oil production. So his scenario is a) post-peak oil with declining production, b) increasing demand led by developing nations, and c) a long time lag needed to get an adequate volume of alternative fuels produced. He puts a+b+c together and concludes that we're likely to see a couple of decades of spot liquid fuel shortages and outrageous prices. The report seems fairly thoughtful and shouldn't be dismissed just by pointing out this or that potential alternative fuel source. The question is one of a rough transition to alternative fuel sources.

 

Man you really don't get it. You can open a THOUSAND refineries ... a MILLION refineries ... but once you hit PEAK well capacity, you only have so many millions of barrels that can be pumped per year. Then production slips ever downward. So goes refining too. Get it? No sense building saw mills if all the trees are gone. There simply AREN'T enough pools of oil under the arctic, or off shore of CA & FL ... even theoreticly, to make more refineries worth even thinking about. You sound like Bush. Out of one side of his face he tells us, "America is adicted to Oil". Out of the other side of his face he's over in the middle east begging Saudis to give us our next heroin hit for a cheeper price. Getting our next 'fix' cheep, is NOT the answer. Biting the bullet, and getting OFF crack is the answer.

 

If we can have all the oil we want at inflated prices, then price is the only issue.

If there is an ACTUAL supply problem inflating the price, then we need to deal with the supply problem.

Just claiming that China and India want more oil so we need to pay more isn't valid, since somebody would end up getting less than they want and a report of oil shortages at US refineries isn't circulating anywhere I've looked.

And please, don't use 1600% price increases since the dawn of automobiles to justify this. What's going on is people seeing an opportunity to grab money and jumping on it, believing there'll be no payback later. Or that they'll be able to buy there way out of any payback. Hopefully they'll be wrong...

 

European pay $8 , $9 per gallon? they still live. When it hit $12, people will adjust, buy less gift on chrismas, less vacation, smaller car, more solar panel on roof, etc. American wont give up their current lifestyle unless they are forced. Let the oil hit $12 , and force people change.

 

No, not the same exact reaction, but a similar *process* approach. Note this Green thing assumes the use of nuclear power plants to provide the "carbon neutral" energy. They mention process water, but not how much process water

In the case of petrochemicals, say a typical 250,000 BPD (Barrel Per Day) refinery, that works out to 10,500,000 US gallons a day. One barrel is precisely 42 US gallons. The process water consumption is around 10,000,000 US gallons per day. THis has to be "clean" water, potable water. You can't run on seawater or sewage

Given the fact many areas are *very* tight now with potable water supplies, I wonder how much potable process water they really need? The issue appeared to be avoided, which raises my eyebrows.

Of course, with enough nuclear power, you can easily desalinate seawater to supply process water. Using membranes to desalinate is pretty expensive. Either way, this has rapidly diminishing returns

 

$12 gas wont happen that fast, i expect it to take a year or two. but $6 this year is pretty much a given...

what the world does not know yet is that the middle east has hit peak oil. they know it, and they are doing their level best to not let anyone else know it and do you blame them?

if you announced, "hey, only have about 4-5 years of cheap oil left!!" what do you think we would do about it? share it with the rest of the world, we might dole out a bit here and there, but i be willing to bet other countries will not see it so kindly.

recently the middle east decided to increase oil production by 300,000 barrels of oil a day... a literal drop in the bucket since estimated increased demand has been 700,000 barrels over that past year. that means someone has to cut back... who will it be? china?? not likely since they are experiencing double digit growth and a much higher percentage of people just know getting into the car market. at least they recognize the problems and is working towards alternative fuels... unlike us, who have nothing but a pocket of companies here and there on their own trying to get enough going to survive...

oh well, thats ok... in another 7 months, there will be a lot more going on around here.

 

EROEI - Energy Return On Energy Invested. The good ole days of cheap Mid East oil had EROEI of 150:1, even 300:1. You could literally poke a hole in the ground and crude would gush out

Shale like in Alberta, Canada, has required billions of taxpayer dollars to keep going until very recently. EROEI Syncrude from that source is claimed to be as high as 25:1, but in reality once you factor in the much higher process water consumption, more like 15:1

Deep sea GBS platforms are also around 10:1 to 15:1. As an example, the Hibernia field off the East coast of Canada has actually lost money, the price of oil has to be consistently over $65 a barrel for it to break even

Peak Oil is a fact. The much-discussed ANWR will probably follow a similar peak as Prudhoe Bay. In case you didn't know, North Slope peaked in the late 1990's at around 2 million BPD (Barrel Per Day), and is now around 700,000 BPD and dropping

As far as announced oil fields, there is a *big* difference between inplace oil and recoverable oil

 

Very well said.

 

For the first almost 20 years of my working life, I rode the bus pretty much every day and entirely by choice.

For the last ten or so years, that has either not been an option or has not been a *practical* option. I tried it for a while, but it added a full two hours a day to my commute and involved enough walking that it was good exercise, but excruciating in the winter.

As for other suggestions about living close to work, I'm sure that's practical in a country where businesses don't use mass layoffs for entertainment.

 

A number of my conservative gas-hog/ginormous pickup/SUV owning/driving friends all assure me, very solemnly, that gas prices are going to go down below $3 shortly after Labor Day. Yeah, right.

 

While I personally think that the price spike we are experiencing is largely due to speculation in the commodity market, the net effect is the same. The fact is that fossil fuel is (in the long term) a loser and the sooner we recognize this and react in a way that makes sense the better. Peak oil coupled with climate change is forcing us to to things differently. The fact that the current spike may be an abberation is a blessing in disguise. It may force the issue to us a bit sooner.

Bio fuels are a loser in the long run. We cannot replace oil with bio fuels and have a sustainable future, even with the cellulose based ideas, there is not enough biomass grown on the planet each year to sustain us. The earth grows ~90 terra watts of biomass from all sources every year. We burn ~15 terrawatts every year. Do the math!

Shale, tar sands etc are a huge loser. The amount of water and natural gas required to get a barrel of oil from the tar sands of Ft. McMurray is huge. Save the natural gas for that which it does well,,,heating stuff!

"Clean coal" is a terrible loser. Even if we could "perfect" carbon sequestration, there is not enough underground storage capacity for the shear volume we produce every year. I have been told that we would need the volume of Lake Erie each and every year to store the carbon. Do you see 50 or 100 lake Erie sized rock caverns showing up?

Hydrogen is also a loser (unless you can make it with solar electricity) The amount of electricity required to make hydrogen exceeds it's energy content. Unless you use solar or are like Iceland you only rob Peter to pay Paul to use hydrogen

What we need is to get real, face the problem up front and get over the idea that we can drill and refine our way out of this. If we spent the time and money investing in current, tried and tested solar, even without technological advances we could solve both climate change and peak oil over night.

Solar panels can be installed on the retail level for ~$10/watt. (Unsubsidized) This translates to electricity costs of about $.30 kilowatt hour (KWH) perhaps 1.5-3 times what we pay now. We have had a tripling of the cost of gasoline in the last few years. If we bight the bullet now, increase our cost of electricity marginally it all (mostly) comes clear.

Add to this, plug in Hybrids that can sell back to the grid during peak hours, reduced consumption due to higher efficiencies of our cars, buildings etc, and none of this is the end of the world. The added costs could be paid for (in large part) by the stimulation of the economy of green collar jobs. If we were to transfer some of the subsidy that we give to oil and give it to solar we could go further to pay for it.

What we need are leaders who will stand up and tell us what we don't want to but need to hear. We need to demand of our producers and suppliers that they fall in line. Most of all we need to make a commitment as individuals to do what we can to make the changes we know we need to make.

Icarus

 

I must add that H2 is a loser even with solar electricity. If it takes 2x as much solar electricity to make and use H2 as it would take to charge a battery, what are we winning by wasting it on H2?

This is true for ANY energy carrier. The amount of energy needed to charge a battery is more than you get out of it as well. It just happens to be about 4x better than the H2 equation. If we make clean power, we have to store it somehow, at some cost.

Yup!

 

I heard an OPEC rep tonite say the supply is fine. He said it's overspeculation in oil futures that's driving the price up for Americans--due to the weak dollar and the Middle East Iraq situation. The dollar continues to lose value vs gold and the euro.

 

That has some truth in it (the latter part). The first part is just the excuse OPEC is using to avoid showing they are really at their peak production right now and can't increase their supply. Well, Iraq and Nigeria could if they were stable, and Iran could increase a bit with better infrastructure, but even a perfect situations wouldn't bring us back to $35/barrel or even $50/barrel. Even if we added ANWR and deep-sea drilling. Not with Mexico and Russia past peak production and Saudi Arabia right about at peak, all while China and India are rapidly increasing demand.

Hey Darell - that's your 4000th post! :horn:

 

Hey, not bad for a wanker. What do I win?