2024 hurricanes

Given the storm rotation, there will be an increased risk to Kennedy Space Flight Center. Shutting down Kennedy would be another bad thing. Not every launch provider and mission can be switched to Vandenberg. Vandenberg has been a 'step child' facility for too long.

Spaceport near Brownsville TX is in relatively good shape. Storms are mitigated by Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico provides tolerable impact zones. Install some Falcon 9 launch facilities and voila, let the competition use and rent space at Kennedy and Wallops. Heck, even Elon might tap the available immigrant labor pool.

Bob Wilson

 

LOL:

• "fake news" - cited as a source. Eventually "fake news" will universally be read as "true and accurate news." So there aren't any gasoline trucks headed to Florida gas stations?
• "portable charging stations" - are to fill gaps in thin charging networks. But my trips last year to Florida in the Tesla and later return in the BMW i3-REx showed: (1) Tesla no problem, and (2) BMW i3-REx used gas as that is how it rolls on long distance trips. Now that SuperCharging is more or less open to CCS-1 vehicles, less bad than what I saw last year.
• Just don't say "Global Warming" or "Climate Change" or wear a face mask in his presence or work in Florida State government.

 

Lots of Naples is above 10' elevation, and they're <so far> only calling for a 4-7' surge there.

(of note, Tampa Hybrids is 49' above sea level)

 

Florida law requires all gas stations to be prewired for generator power.
I do believe a certain amount of stations along routes and determined to be critical are required to have generator power.
People with gassers shouldn't have any concerns

In the Know: Are all gas stations required to have backup generators? (naplesnews.com)
"Florida gas stations issued a certificate of occupancy after July 1, 2006, must be prewired with a transfer switch to enable emergency power after a prolonged power outage"

Statutes & Constitution :View Statutes : Online Sunshine (state.fl.us)
Each motor fuel retail outlet described in subparagraph 1., subparagraph 2., or subparagraph 3., which is located within one-half mile proximate to an interstate highway or state or federally designated evacuation route must be prewired with an appropriate transfer switch and be capable of operating all fuel pumps, dispensing equipment, lifesafety systems, and payment-acceptance equipment using an alternate generated power source

Each corporation or other entity that owns 10 or more motor fuel retail outlets located within a single county shall maintain at least one portable generator that is capable of providing an alternate generated power source as required under subsection (2) for every 10 outlets. If an entity owns more than 10 outlets or a multiple of 10 outlets plus an additional 6 outlets, the entity must provide one additional generator to accommodate such additional outlets. Each portable generator must be stored within this state, or may be stored in another state if located within 250 miles of this state, and must be available for use in an affected location within 24 hours after a disaster

 

Ah rats, already updated to 6-10'.

Naples is not going to be a good place to be, during or after Wednesday.

 

Are you reading the forecast discussions out of NWS Miami? Milton will move into less favorable conditions Tuesday & Wednesday and the current strength is not expected to continue through the next 36 - 48 hours. Things could change of course but dry air entrainment and significant wind shear are factors behind the NWS prediction of Cat 2/3 at landfall. Milton will be a strong hurricane at landfall but probably not as strong as the intensity today.

 

Milton may peak at current intensity then steadily weaken through 48 hours.

4 PM update from NWS Miami - Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and
very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer
eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually
weaken on Tuesday but grow larger. On Wednesday, Milton is expected
to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry
air entrainment, with further weakening forecast. Regardless, the
system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall
in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well
inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from
their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the
potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record
for west-central Florida.

 

Western shores of the Yucatan peninsula is getting hammered. Preview of things to come: Powerful Hurricane-Level Winds Slam into Yucatán Peninsula - Yucatán Magazine

February 6, 2024




Bob Wilson

 

i just a model showing a hard right over central florida and continuing east

 

Central pressure of 897 mb? Wowser!


"The central pressure in the eye of Hurricane Milton has fallen to a near-record low of 897 millibars, making it the fifth-strongest hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin.

1️⃣ Wilma (2005): 882 mb
2️⃣ Gilbert (1988): 888 mb
3️⃣ "Labor Day" Hurricane (1935): 892 mb
4️⃣ Rita (2005): 895 mb
5️⃣ Milton (2024): 897 mb"

 

I misunderstood the weather map:


Campeche is being (or been) hammered:


Bob Wilson

 

Time will tell.

At present the spaghetti says a landfall slightly south of Tampa as a Cat-3, but sheer and ERC get to vote too....both ways.
Intensity forecasting makes fools of us all - but one advantage of this storm's rapid intensification is that Tampa/St Pete will take notice and, hopefully, its would-be victims will prepare, prepare, prepare.
One disadvantage is that people WILL take time off of work, dig into their savings, and do all of the 10,000 things to get ready to evacuate - for...what?
- a strong Cat-2 in Sarasota?
- a strong Cat-5 in Clearwater?

Whattaya do?
HOPE for a stronger or weaker storm to prove that 'you were right?'
Hope is not a plan - but it is also not 'unreasonable' given the current data set.
You ALWAYS hope for the best but plan for the worst.

 

So how low did a boat (correct term?) have to go to avoid high wave effects?

Speculation, there should be a depth that the water pressure should be pretty much the average of sea level ... the surface waves would not be detectable by the boat pressure sensors.

Bob Wilson