I did but was not convinced. Model 3 cars can be sold outside the USA. Then there are the future, announced models that need an assembly line ... where or where will Tesla find one? Bob Wilson
Posit this scenario. The news starts to anticipate a sharp downturn coming. The "R" word gets mentioned. People get scared and reduce spending on premium goods. Those who have investments are shaken by their net-worth shrinkage. Job growth turns just slightly negative but enough to prompt headlines. Add in trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, the 3M's in trouble (UK, France, Germany). Now predict what the market for $60k cars will be. (BTW, that $38k to make the base M3 was from Elon to employees.) This doubt came to me as, on a cold rainy day stuck inside with a head cold, I sat reading and watching the market tick down minute by minute. Until a few months ago, I was way overbalanced in stocks and had been since 2008. Fortunately, this year I pulled 50% of my portfolio out to a place where I won't make much. My advisor asked me why. I said I had had enough of a ride and had seen this cycle before. I wonder what the Tesla prices will be when the tax rebate is reduced. Will they have to drop to keep up the volume? Will them starting to ship 3k overseas lead to delivery/service hell like it has here? What happens if one of those new battery technologies turns out to be real and owned by a competitor? Does the gigafactory turn into an albatross? You buy stock for a share of future profits. Lots of uncertainties.
pretty different philosophies for those 3. They'd rather shut plants down to make money - whereas their new competitor goes into hock up to their eyeballs & shovels all their profits back into their grand plan to make money - rather than reward their board with obscene corporate perks. .
'Bitter, party of one!' I remember reading somewhere that the efficient car market is still no more than ~3.5% ... in 2018. Bob Wilson
Did SeekingAlpha find an acorn? Source: Tesla: Quick Look At The 2019 Convertible Settlement - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha . . . Oppenheimer justifies its price target by looking out three years to project earnings, applying a multiple, and discounting back to bet a 12-month price target. $21 of EPS with 250 million shares outstanding (my wild guess estimate, there are 171.7 million currently outstanding) implies net income of $5.25 billion. This seems pretty ambitious as does the 25x multiple. The stock feels overvalued, but the stock always has been overvalued from the beginning. If TSLA hits Oppenheimer's Q4 production estimates of 66k, the stock is not going to trade down. To believe that the stock is going to decline meaningfully from here, an investor must believe that TSLA will miss Q4 production estimates. As to what the future holds? That brings us back to this quote: “For me, the fact that we were able to build at scale, amid all that craziness, that’s the real accomplishment,” one former engineering executive told me. “Just think about it: We designed a car that is so simple and elegant you can build it in a tent. You can build it when your CEO is melting down. You can build it when everyone is quitting or getting fired. That’s a real accomplishment. That’s amazing.” For all the insanity that has occurred at TSLA, Musk has still built an impressive company. This is the first time I've read one of their reports that was not a transparent "hit job." Sure there are some snarky parts, no worse than my review. Bob Wilson
Shorting is always a gamble. So is going long, as I can tell you from experience in two market crashes. What happened to my investments in infospace.com, pets.com, webvan.com and Enron? The dynamics of Tesla make it an ideal short candidate. The basis for the moves Elon Musk makes are his own secrets. He may have a strategy that surprises us all.
I, too, pulled over 50% of my portfolio from tech stocks and invested in fast food. Man, that Big Mac Meal Large Sized with Diet Coke was fantastic! I ordered it with extra pickles, just to sweeten the deal. And I received a week's worth of napkins for free.
the bitter party is way more than one. Consider the 1,000's who were affected by the ignition switch snafu that GM hid from the public (injuries/fatalities & hiding what they knew) . They have even tried to shirk their Duty by claiming that most of those cars were made pre-bankruptcy & thus, those liabilities were shead. The unravelling of the General Motors restructuring: Claims beyond the limits of bankruptcy | Cayman Financial Review So, besides all of the other slimy stuff that GM has done, besides killing off one of their most efficient cars recently ? Yea - a lot of their goings-on never make it to the Press. I hope those that were laid off can get picked up by a manufacturer that will appreciate their skills. .
Having owned a Chevette, three clutches in 100,000 mi, I'm no fan of GM. My wife forbids me buying one which is why the Volt/Bolt held no allure. Bob Wilson
my 96 year old father used to fill his pockets with napkins every time i took him to mcdonalds. depression baby
Read an interesting article on the troubles that the company that Tesla leases through was having. Wonder on its effect on the number of cars available. Not available to be linked to.
Stock down a bit today. Regardless, I'm looking forward to seeing the Q4 production numbers in about two weeks. Other than the usual FUD articles, Tesla did issue $800 M bonds based on Model X/S leases. Most of the FUD is around what a horrible boss Musk may be. There is also one speculation about Model 3 market saturation. Regardless, nothing that affects my approach. Markets closed and it is just ordinary counter-cyclical compared to gold. Bob Wilson
Starting to get a little skeptical of your motivation for coming on here to only say negative things about Tesla. Are you just not able to understand Tesla's situation? Or do you have a financial incentive to come up with these doomsday scenarios?
I'm a little hesitant to discuss someone else's motivation. If they want to share, OK, but I'm also OK if they just want to post their 'bon mote' since occasionally they might find something I've missed. I've explained my logic and so far no one has posted a credible counter. Bob Wilson
