Will we see 20 year old Priuses still on the road?

We will it not like Corollas. The parts on Prius will exceed value of car after 15 years or so.

 

There are first gen. Prius still on the road. They are very close to 20. So, yes. The Prius is very reliable. Yes, some parts are very expensive, but can be had from wreckers for less. Some parts are being rebuilt after market (batteries for example, perhaps inverters to follow). Some people just refuse to give up as well, and will pay what some consider too high a price to fix the car. After all, a new car is much more! Thankfully, we are not all accountants!

 

I plan to keep mine on the road past 20 years.....

 

The majority will not last 20 years. Low annual mileage cars may last if they are driven regularly. My 17 year old truck I bought new Oct. 1998 is only driven about 8,000 miles/year. It runs great and I plan on keeping it at least 5 more years.

My Prius is driven about 20,000 miles/year. I doubt it will last 400,000 miles. It could, but if something breaks that's more expensive to fix then it's worth, I will junk it.

I like buying 2 to 3 year old cars really cheap. I got a great deal on my 2013 Prius this summer. I would buy a good used one rather than pouring money into an old car not worth much.

I understand the mind set to keep a favorite old car running. I feel that way about my truck. As previously posted, good used parts can be a life saver for an old car.

For me, the big ticket items to replace are the engine, transaxle, inverter, and traction battery. The inverter and battery are an easy swap, but the engine and transaxle are heavy maintenance items that I no longer want to hurt my back fixing (been there, done that).

If 20 years is your goal, I think you have a reasonable chance to make it happen if you do your own maintenance. Paying a retail mechanic to fix a car is too expensive.

 

i see a ton of gen I prius around here, most look like brand new. i suspect there will be many after 20 years, electronics is probably the least of the problems. heck, all cars are loaded with electronics these days.

tom, what is your concern with electronics?

 

If you look at 20 year old cars on the road today there are many examples, mostly due to low(er) mileage and low prices. I think a Prius will be less attractive due to the complexity and cost of repairs. 12,000 is considered the norm so those cars would have 240,000 miles. We know that isn't out of the question for a Prius but most people wouldn't buy a 20 year old car with that many miles. In my opinion then the number of Prius cars on the road 20 years from now will be significantly less than the average ICE car.

Much older cars are considered valuable due to scarcity and have a classic design. Prius might fall into that category but still in low numbers.

I also believe, due to the high electronics content, many cars of today will be challenging to keep on the road after 20 years. Consider a 1952 Chevy and how simple they were. Parts may be difficult to come by for older cars but they used many less parts, and had virtually zero electronics.

Replacing a lock mechanism on an old car vs replacing the computer/motherboard on a new car are vastly different in terms of cost. 12V batteries are used in most of the cars on the road today whle a Prius battery is not only unique to the Prius but even to certain models of Prius. The future, in terms of the percentage of cars sold today, doesn't look good for 20 year old hybrid cars in my opinion.

In my opinion the electronics of today's cars are going to be the biggest issue. When they fail they are expensive to replace. Buying used parts may be the way to go as both Toyota and 3rd party vendors discontinue support for older cars.

Having been in the semiconductor industry for 40 years I know that once an integrated circuit (IC) works for a while it will likely last for many years. But the ICs aren't the problem. Quality issues with contaminants in the solder that mounts things to the motherboard are all too common. When electronics in cars are old the gaskets keeping them sealed from the elements deteriorate and allow moisture and other contaminants to enter. Power surges can wreak havoc on electronics. Having a 20 year old piece of electronic equipment, such as our VCR, is one thing, but in a car that cycles through sub zero freezing to 100+ degree temperatures is quite another.

I do believe other things will fail more often than the electronics. However most other things are those common to most cars and the population knows how to deal with them. Engines can be rebuilt, water pumps can easily be replaced, brakes are common. Even the Synergy drive, a superior design, will not likely be a long term problem. But when electronics do go bad they will be expensive to replace.

 

Don't forget your "big ticket" brake controller-master cylinder. I'd worry more about it than the engine.

 

When I bought my Prius. I factored in a 10 year ownership being free of "major repairs". My Scion 2006 XB lasted me 10 years with 162,000 miles on it and I only had to replace the water pump at 5 years. I figured the Prius would give me the same if not more time and distance. I like the fact that is has an electronic water pump. It only turns when it is needed. This is what I like about the Prius. It only uses parts of the engine when needed. My Scion was awesome! It sold me on the ingenuity of Toyota. I have attached a couple of photos of it. Check out how clean I kept the engine area. Also did all the maintnence myself.

 

The first Prii to cross the 20-year mark are going to be the Gen 1s, and they have a relatively inexpensive master cylinder with an even cheaper (< $60) rebuild kit available. Not at all like the $$$$ grand unified brake box of Gen 3.

I think in general anybody planning to keep a car around that age will be someone who is particularly attached to it, considers it classic in some way, etc., and will (a) be comfortable and planning to DIY repairs, (b) not mind getting creative with sourcing parts that go out of production or have high prices, (c) be keeping a fund for "miscellaneous repair needs not identified in advance" that is sized according to whatever their balance point is between what's worth spending to repair it and what's a good down payment to trade up. Some of the electronic boxes have very high sticker prices if they fail, but they so rarely do that there is probably no reason to single them out from any of the other low-likelihood, high-cost events that the "miscellaneous repair fund" exists for anyway.

I wouldn't be surprised if some people do try to nurse old Gen 1s along. They will arguably be classics, not just in the sense of being old cars but game-changing pieces of tech history. I was just a bit late to have owned an Altair 8800, so my Palm Pilot and my NHW11 are the two most interesting bits of history I actually have.

-Chap

 

I hope if the brake controller-master cylinder fails I could buy a used one. It shouldn't cost more than a used inverter or battery.

But you're right, it is an expensive item.

Brake, inverter, and traction battery problems are not a big issue with me from a work load issue. I just won't do any more engine or transaxle swaps. Too old for that.

 

well, if you go back to the o/p's question, we would only need to see two. i think it will happen.

 

This, but it could be said about a lot of other new "next gen" technology cars.

Once it costs more to fix what you have than it would be to put a down payment on a new item (or buy a used item in good condition), the incentive to repair it drops off.

The up side is that like any vehicle, if you stay on top of the scheduled maintenance and fix things when they go wrong, you extend how long the car will last before you get one of those "high dollar" repair jobs.

This was a concern to me about buying the Prius, but I'm confident that by the time my Prius needs a high-dollar repair, there will be much cheaper options and (thanks to Prius Chat ) others who have gone before will have found more economical ways to DIY rather than take it to Toyota.

 

The first car I purchased was a 1996 Subaru Legacy. I got it with 119,000 miles, drove it until 219,000 miles, and then was rear-ended in 2010. It made it 14 years before being totaled.

Most cars will be wrecked before reaching 20 years old. In the near future, this will become less and less the case as automatic braking systems become standardized.

You'll see cars on the road as long as junk yards have them in supply. This has a lot to do with how many of the vehicles were sold in the first place, and the Prius has sold very well.

Note that the OBDII standard isn't even quite 20 years old yet. Owning a vehicle older than 20 years at this point means driving something significantly outdated since many shops rely on OBDII diagnostics. I would assume that sometime in the near future, new technologies will become standard that will make owning a 20 year old Prius disadvantageous. Automatic braking systems might be one of the significant advantages of parting ways with the Prius before 20 years is up.

*I realize automatic braking is offered on some Toyotas, but it isn't common yet.

LOL! Canada recognizes that it's unlikely for a Saab to last a long time and grants collector status at 15 years. That is too funny.

 

Question is why would you want to keep one 20 years...assuming you were willing to pay for projected high dollar items? All cars are a cost. If we all had a crystal balls, some might have been purchased and maintained a few specific cars as collector items for the value, but not sure there will be any real return on Prii any year/model/option offered yet. Good rule of thumb is fix it until it cost more to maintain than buy. YMMV.

 

saw a pristine gen I the other day, looked like they just rolled it out of the showroom.

 

Check out JCCS on the web, who knew any of these classic Japanese cars would now be fetching the $$$$ they are now. I personally like owning a car and taking care of it, and in 20 or 30 years from now still having a car that everyone else wishes they could have. Its not so much about the money to keep an old car on the road, as it is the joy of having a car that only a few can still own. I know it sounds crazy to some, but I am a car guy!