Will the EV survive in America?

patience.

 

As long as gasoline is plentiful, there's no reason for people to kick the habit. When - and it's only a matter of time - gas starts hitting $5/gal and staying there, that may be the magic number. Who knows, though. I would have thought $4 was a magic number just a few months ago, but people are "excited" to see gasoline at $3.55 right now. It's like the stuff is "on sale".

There's a tipping point, however, and I'm going to guess that it's $5.00… people will shake their heads and a few more will start seriously thinking about increasing mpg to cut their fuel costs. For now, it's still affordable for many people. In Southern California an EV is still a luxury item. Unless people produce their own electricity - or enough of it to come in at a low tier, most of us are being charged 30-40¢ per kWh for at least a portion of their energy usage. That makes $4/gallon gas a push.

 

And don't forget that EV is not just storing grid-generated electricity into batteries. There are also alternative electricity sources such as fuel cells.

 

when tiered rate plans are re-adjusted to account for EVs then adoption in places like California will pick up. tiered rate plans were put in place under pressure to discourage wasteful electric usage. if the electric is being used to displace gasoline, the pressure will be to make it free or close to free.

 

It will be hard for EV to succeed if the government incentive for EV is the same as plugin hybrid.

 

I think adoption of EVs will speed up as people realize the incredible performance and quality of the driving experience that are possible with EVs.

Like any new technology though, it won't happen overnight. It will happen though, and I would guess it will happen at least as quickly as adoption of hybrids.

 

When gasoline was 17 cents per gallon and gas cars got 10 miles to the gallon, 2 cents per mile , they flourished as quickly as the roads were built. Those gas cars only traveled 40-50 miles on a tank.

With electric cars at 2 cents per mile they will flourish as well.

 

Anyone see the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car" about the EV1? Gives you an idea.

Oil - the companies that own it make the rules. Not the cosumers, the automakers, or the legislators.

If there were more money to be made in electricity, everyone would be driving an electric vehicle.

 

While it would be nice if things were that simple, they aren't.
Many factors went into the demise of EVs in the early 2000s.

However, this time there is competition, and companies taking different strategies. Both of these facts give me encouragement that this time they are here to stay

 

There are many factors, and I tend to focus on the Benjamins, therefore my take on this dilemma...

I've attached a simple analysis that looks at cost per mile at various levels of cost per gallon of gasoline, as cost per mile is one of the major factors that lured me to the PIP. I like the cost per mile improvement that the PIP offers over our Venza and am very happy at current fuel prices.

I tend to compare the PIP to the Venza, as we own both and were nearly identical in price, and we use them for nearly identical purposes. Not an apples to apples comparison. Just refelcts my paradigm.

Other drivers may need a larger savings, which is why I've shown the higher costs per gallon.

With gas at a much higher cost per gallon in Europe, it would be great if our EU friends shared their perspective.

 

The abundance and low cost of natural gas could put a dent in EV sales, especially if more car manufacturers offer a CNG version of their models. Manufacturers, without too many mods to their existing lines could retrofit for CNG usage. Homeowners could have a filling port added to their existing natural gas lines to make it conveinent for the car owner. IIRC, the trucking industry is looking (or doing) the CNG conversion in the near future.

DBCassisdy

 

It depends on what you call an EV.....and what you mean by 'survive'.
EV's have been around for a while.

IMHO if (when) costs continue to make them more viable, then yes they'll continue to be an option for eco-weenies and gagateers that can live within their restrictions. As costs continue to rise and fall for gas and batteries....more and more non-eco weenies might give them a tumble.
I personally think that more people could use an EV than do use them....but the human animal is a funny creature. Things like range and bling anxiety will always keep some folks away.
There are other hurtles as well... charging station availability, charge time and dwelling compatibilities that will keep other folks out of the fold.
I like PHEVs for now. They seem to be a good balance for the eco-chic, and folks who want to dodge HOV lanes. For some people they almost make economic sense especially with government kickbacks.
If the kickbacks continue....and if folks like Tesla continue their work in making EVs as interesting and fun as they can be then someday you might see the average consumer want to buy an EV.
For right now...that "want" is mostly ideologically and/or convenience based....which is good enough.
There used to be zero mass produced EVs.
How many are there now?

Be patient.
If we do it right...it will be worth the wait.

 

I agree there are many factors, but I think the cost and weight of the battery is the greatest factor. There are some articles that set forth a predicted rate at which capacity will increase and cost will reduce. It is not fast enough.

A Nissan Leaf is about the size of a Toyota Yaris that costs $20,000 more and drives 250 miles less.

That is the fundamental problem.

 

I briefly considered the PiP... but the salesman did not answer my questions and the lack of charging stations in my area made me go with the liftback and no regrets but the PiP concept is still appealing to me. Maybe after 10-12 years things will change here and charging stations will be more plentiful - I look for them in my travels and have yet to see one.