Will Inventories Normalize in the Fall of 2011?

Sorry, my crystal ball fell and I can't predict the future anymore. But if I were a betting kind of guy, I would say things will likely stabilize late this year, perhaps even early next year. That all assumes no major natural disasters.

 

Don't listen to the "experts"!
An "EX" is a has-been, and a "Spurt" is a drip under pressure.

A car is not an investment! The goal here is to not spend money unnecessarily.
OK...so if you want the cheapest mode of transportation, then do some research and try and find the five cars with the lowest TCO, and pick one from that list. Good luck with that BTW!!!
I'll betcha you're not going to find two lists with the same cars on them.
(hint: The G3 will not be on any of those lists, if they use real math.)
This is because people get emotionally attached to their cars, and there are other things to look at besides TCO.
If you're an eco-geek, or you just plain care about rolling green, then Priuses are hands-down the way to go...for a car that is. (EV's are a whole different matter.)
Or....you may like the way the G3 looks...or drives.
People do.

If you "need" a new car, the G3 isn't too bad a choice. Gas is dropping, but it will still be cheaper in the long run than it would be if you were lusting after a Camaro or a 4x4 truck...(or a Harley... )
We're standing into hurricane season.
One good (or bad!) CAT-5 storm in the Gulf is going to send prices rocketing back past $4 faster than you can say "disrupted refining capacity".
We're also one major terrorism event away from the same thing.
Suddenly.....no more G3's for less than MSPR +5K!
The $USD is tanking. That's not going to be a good thing for G3 prices for the next year independent of other external influences.
Or....I could spend 500 words explaining how there's going to be a glut of Priuses on the showroom floors three months from now, and they'll be back under 20K (for a base model.)
If we really knew what was going to happen three months from now, we'd be playing the market, and making enough money to pay cash for our cars.

If you really REALLY want one...start shopping.
If you're not sure...and your current car isn't costing you an arm and a leg to run or repair....research some and wait it out. Prices will probably come down some when supply goes back up.

Maybe...

 

well, that's the question, isn't it? personally, i would keep looking for one at sticker.

 

ETC makes it sound complicated, but it's not. It's good advice to check out your top 5 TCO cars. Toyota certainly wants inventories to stabilize by year end, so that could be half the battle pending any other disasters, natural or otherwise. As far as pricing, well that's another dealer story especially when coupled with buyer demand.

In addition to new, it doesn't hurt to check out Certified Toyota Pre-Owned Cars. There may be some deals in that category. I got mine that way and I was more than pleased with pricing.

Good luck with your research.

 

Not sure if you have tried this yet, but try expanding your search to other dealers further away, I think if you try hard, you should be able to find one at sticker. Even though I recently bought 2 new 2011's at Sticker (No way I could wait), if i could have waited til fall I would have, because Toyota stated the US should get 36,000 Prius cars in June, July and August. This and maybe, the Prius v will take some pressure off Prius sales.

But remember this is just my semi educated guess, but let's face it I can't see them going up more, so waiting might not be bad bet......

 

My local dealer quoted me $2k over sticker. The local dealer is getting cars in all the time, and they always have at least one sitting on the lot. They are a high pressure dealer with horrible reviews.

A dealer 40 miles away quoted me $500 under sticker. They have a 45-60 day wait on getting one. They are a highly recommended dealership who has won the presidents award numerous times.

It's all about where you look apparently. Check around as far out as you are willing to drive --- and include more "remote" cities. That's where I found my deal.


One of the other reasons I started looking at the Prius : Large enthusiast population. It's nice to own a car that has a large enough "fan base" where you can an answer to pretty much any question. I enjoyed that as a member of the 4Runner forums for many years ... and this seems like the same kind of environment.

 

I found mine over 750 miles away. That was the best drive home ever, for me.

 

Gas prices are falling and Toyota today claims they are at 90% of normal production. Giving two months for the pipeline to fill up and another two months for the dealers to have too much inventory, I would say you can enjoy your new Prius for Christmas.

 

Don't get one now, wait. It is a terrible time to buy one between gas and production issues. Wait for Toyota to get cranking again and filling dealer lots. It will happen, the prices will come down. Just wait a few months.

 

Perhaps you should try zag.com. They are the behind the scene company that provides the affinity /shopping clubs discounted prices. My neighbor just bought his Tacoma through USAA which is in on their partner list. His experience was good and he is a former new car salesman.

 

Get out of that disgusting godforsaken state of NJ. You can buy Prii all day long at MSRP (or less) in PA.

Do a little research for God's sake. PA's only about 40 miles away.

REV

 

Just to let you know Toyota themselves raised the MSRP by couple hundred bucks. Not lookin good.

 

I would think things would be picking up in states that gasoline is not as high. In Chicago I think inventories are still tight. Local dealer as well as dealer I bought Prius at has non available on web site...

 

I think if you look at the past year or two...we are actually coming out of what was a great time to buy a Prius. Toyota kept the price low initially to compete with The Insight..upon release...then it was a buyers market when Toyota was suffering the bad publicity of the massive recalls.

Now with gas prices rising...low inventories due to production scale back and shortages due to disaster in Japan...this is the perfect storm of "bad time to buy".

But objectively? Who can predict the future? I'd say this much...things might get a little better...I'd expect Japan to continue to recover and production to increase. But with the release next year of the Prius c? I'd also not expect Prius prices to fall too much...

My thinking is right now...a Prius II is the entry level Prius Hybrid...and so Toyota has some incentive to keep the price lower...Once the "entry level" Prius becomes the Prius c? I'd expect "regular" Prius prices to increase...

So if you are looking a year or so ahead and the Prius c doesn't interest you? This may be the time to get your original Prius....

 

My gas prices here in Pinehurst didn't come down as fast as they went up, and my local dealer is out of Prius inventory.

 

Try Milham Toyota in Easton PA.

Ask for Matt Roecker, and tell him Lee sent you ... he should be able to hook you up. Keep in mind, you'll ALWAYS get a better deal buying a car on the lot. The more specific you are, the more difficult the deal is, and the more you'll pay. I was very flexible, and got the exact deal I wanted, which was just over $3000 off after discounts and rebates.

REV

 

This is exactly what I think is going to happen. Also, I think the current Prius will probably go upscale in features and price for 2012 when the Prius c shows up. Toyota has said that they should be running at 100% by November. Buy before the c shows up, either a remaining 2011 or a 2012 if the 2012 is mid-cycle refreshed.