Why Full Self Driving is needed

needed, but still a ways off. in the meantime, nothing should allow dumb humans to remove their hand from the whhel and not actively participate

 

i vaguely remember at the 1964 worlds fair, there was a display of cars being completely controlled by some type of signal towers.

"coming soon!"

 

I recalled a few days ago a short story I red in the late '80s, early '90s, and maybe written much earlier in which the cars had radar cones for navigating.

 

Is there a typo here? I read it as most like to have meant.. "As a full self driving beta tester I think that this is impossible under FSD".

I am a strong proponent of autonomous cars, but I've watched several Tesla FSD videos that show where the tesla would have caused an accident if it were not for intervention by the driver. The videos had everything from running over islands to driving the wrong way. One video had the car driving down the two way left turn lane. Another cut a corner and made a bee-line for a light pole. No, the Tesla FSD is not ready for taking control yet.

My impression is that the Tesla system based on visible light will eventually be about as good as an alert average driver. It can't exceed that level simply because it's using the same visual cues that people rely upon. For instance, using visual cues, your FSD design has to wait till the size of the object in the video has grown significantly to decide that the car you are following is doing an emergency stop. Radar, on the other hand, allows almost instantaneous response.

But... Eventually we will have self driving systems like Waymo makes that will significantly exceed the human skill level. With any luck, there will be a mandated standard so that ALL cars use the same design. That would make it possible for every car to correctly predict the reaction of the other cars in the area. As it is right now, every autonomous car has to make guesses to predict the paths of other cars.

Of course, the real solution will be a robust lidar / radar / visual suite of tools to detect and protect soft targets like people while a networked system would allow co-operative navigation systems. The beauty of such a system is that the cars can then notify each other of their planned course and negotiate the crossing of intersections. The same network can broadcast warnings of road hazards and emergency vehicles.

Great things are coming. Just not quite yet.

 

Do you really want the computer doing its thing in a city with stop signs, traffic lights, crowded areas, crazy pedestrians, bike riders and the like? What about the scenario where the light is green but there is someone like a cop standing in the middle lane signaling everyone to stop as an example where a human may pick up the multiple ques from the whistle blowing where a sight based AI or a LIDAR based set of data would have no chance. I use Toyota's driver assist on the interstates for hundreds of miles a trip. But immediately when I'm off on a ramp or on local roads I take full control. That system I use requires hands on the wheel and has no passing ability, it is my responsibility. I guess I prefer it that way.

 

The current FSD is still improving.
However, there are a couple of thing that can make it better than an alert average driver with the same lighting.
For example, the fact that is sees 360 degrees all the time can give FSD an advantage.
Second, the primary cameras are higher up and not blocked by the pillars.
Third, the speed and force that FSD can apply the brakes is better than any human.
Human reaction time, when alert, is on the order of 100-200 msec, while the Tesla cameras provide a new frame every ~27 msec.
Fourth, average drivers keep going when tired.

Mike

 

Apparently not: FSD can roll through stop signs with just an illegal and unsafe "Hollywood stop":

Thousands of Tesla vehicles recalled; 'Full Self-Driving' software runs stop signs | KOMO

"The “rolling stop” feature allows vehicles to go through intersections with all-way stop signs at up to 5.6 miles per hour."

"Tesla introduced the “rolling stop” feature in a software update that was sent out to the testing owners on Oct. 20. NHTSA met with Tesla on Jan. 10 and 19 to discuss how the software operates, the documents said. On Jan. 20, the company agreed to disable the rolling stops with the software update."

 

How many times has Tesla come up with an update that includes a feature that no sane responsible knowledgeable in the field person would think should be on the road? Just because they can.

My background is in systems that had to have rigorous testing for years by independent companies and government organizations before appearing in the wild even to beta testing end users because the national defense depends on the result, Internally we spent twice in time and $ that we spent on developing on testers and even more to employ independent testers and code analyzers.

This notion that driving is just an app or a game and changes can be rolled every week out with little supervision just blows my mind. Will keep the lawyers busy for years. But your honor the AI said it should do X .... Ah but defense lawyer, your company is responsible for knowing what it does and why and in the end for what it does.

 

A report in the UK recommends that liability autonomous cars rests with the one providing the autonomous system. By autonomous they mean a Level 5 system that needs no input from anyone in the car. It also recommends that any system below that level shouldn't be referred to as autonomous. They are driver aids.

 

Check out this video at

. It shows how dangerously the Tesla drives. There are a couple of rolling stops at the 3:05 minute mark and less than a minute later. It's not that it proceeds though the intersection at 5 MPH. The problem is that it does not come to a complete stop and then accelerates through the intersection.

One of the things that makes driving safe is the presumption that everyone will follow the same rules. For instance, if the approaching car has a flashing turn signal, you should be able to assume that the car will turn. If the car is approaching a stop sign, you should be able to assume that the car will stop until it's safe to proceed. If the car does not come to a stop the inference is that the driver does not see you approaching or does not recognize the stop sign.

When I read that Tesla was rolling out an "aggressive mode" that included running stop signs, I was aghast.

 

Tesla is now withdrawing the rolling stop signs feature.

 

Did you have to enable something for that to happen, as the article indicated? Or was that feature automatically on?

Willfully disobeying safety rules, based on personal convenience, is why the motoring public has a vastly higher fatality rate than does the commercial aviation industry. And why a certain movie camerawomen is dead from a "blank" round.

 

Another outlet posted a longer form of the AP article:

Tesla recall: ‘Full Self-Driving’ software runs stop signs | The Seattle Times

"The recall shows that Tesla programmed its vehicles to violate the law in most states, where police will ticket drivers for disregarding stop signs. The Governors Highway Safety Association, which represents state highway safety offices, said it is not aware of any state where a rolling stop is legal. ...

NHTSA says failing to stop for a sign can increase the risk of a crash. “The Vehicle Safety Act prohibits manufacturers from selling vehicles with defects posing unreasonable risks to safety, including intentional design choices that are unsafe,” the agency said. “If the information shows that a safety risk may exist, NHTSA will act immediately.” ...

Philip Koopman, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, said 4-way stop signs are commonly placed to protect intersections for children when no crossing guard is present. He said Tesla’s “machine learning” system can mistakenly identify objects. “What happens when FSD decides a child crossing the street is not ‘relevant’ and fails to stop?” he asked. “This is an unsafe behavior and should never have been put in vehicles.”

Koopman said traveling through a stop sign at 5.6 mph is akin to treating it as a yield sign.

Jonathan Adkins, executive director of the governors safety association, said he’s not surprised that Tesla programmed vehicles to violate state laws. “They keep pushing the bounds of safety to see what they can get away with, and they’ve really been pushing a lot,” he said. “Each time it’s just a little bit more egregious. It’s good to see NHTSA is pushing back.”"