Featured Toyota's thoughts on EV adoption

That is not science, it is the same old line. There is plenty of lithium in the world to supply all the electric vehicles. It does take time, around 3-10 years to increase lithium production so it must be planned, and around the same 3 years to build a battery plant, which means in 2027 the world can be producing vastly more batteries. Creating mines and other lithium extration sites does cost money and doing it quickly costs more.

I don't disagree with toyota still producing most vehicles as phev or hybrids in 2030, but the reason is not that it can't ramp up battery production. It needs to develop a new platform that likely won't be ready to produce bevs on this until 2028. The battery tech is evolving so planning for battery production even for 2028 needs to get ramped up now. 2040 is a more realistic timeframe, and 95% BEV or at least 30 mile AER PHEV is a much more realistic goal.

https://electrek.co/2022/09/06/snow-lake-lithium-electric-mine-power-5-million-evs-in-north-america/
An example is snow lake in canada that hopes to mine enough lithium for 5 million evs about 500,000 battery packs a year but might increase. Equipment is still being developed so the time line could be later, but this will use 98% hydro and electric equipment for a true low environmental impact mine. LG will process the ore into battery grade lithium where it will be sent by rail to battery plants. Plant will probably be in full production 3 years from now.

 

This article reads like a climate change denying corporation that dominates their market hired a crackpot scientist to cook up some bogus numbers to justify something that's totally unjustified.

It makes me think of long ago when their was the same kind of con game among the horse & buggy industry arguing that Automobiles are noisy and impractical and the gasoline supplies will never be able to keep up with demand.

More to the point as 2030 gets closer and climate change gets worse, Toyota is going to find itself on the outside looking in at markets they can no longer sell their hybrid vehicles in because governments will realize that banning fossil fool cars is not just feasible, but necessary and urgent.

That has already happened to Toyota in China where they were forced to sell EVs instead of hybrids. And once that first domino falls, it's just a matter of time before the rest of them fall no matter what Toyota does to slow or prevent it .

 

Interesting.
my pennies worth.
Without sufficient infrastructure in EV charging rates and availability are we really regressing to the “good old days of horse and cart” when it would take literally days to travel long distances.
Given an “average” and feel free to correct me of 200 miles and 4 hours to charge on a non express charger.
I ask this.
How long would it take to drive from New York to LA ?

 

Why would anyone use "non express chargers" on a road trip?
I've made trips in a BEV from Minnesota to California with no additional trip time. But that is going to depend on how you travel.
Infrastructure has come a long way since 2010, and will continue to grow as more and more people discover the benefits of EVs.

 

Availability

Thats a fair distance of 1900 miles ish. How long does it take?

 

Meanwhile the Hyundai Ioniq 6 was introduced in Europe and sold out entirely in a matter of hours because it charges up to 80% of a full charge in 18 minutes and has a range of 360 miles due to a staggering 0.22 drag coefficient: https://electrek.co/2023/01/31/2023-hyundai-ioniq-6-epa-range-unveiled/

When was the last time Toyota introduced a vehicle that sold out in a matter of hours? And why is that a normal situation for most EV vehicle builders these days while Toyota pretends like they're going to be the winner instead?

The answer to that is why the most influential Toyota shareholders have made sure that Akio Toyoda is stepping down in the next couple months and new leadership has to replace their current loser leadership.

 

DC fast chargers are plentiful along interstates. There will be more in the near future as well. Availability is not a major concern for a trip like that.

As I recall, it was three days out and back. We did sightseeing along the way out and back, including a ghost town in AZ my wife last visited as a kid One of the best road trips I have ever taken.

 

I don't believe the new CEO will make any major changes. Isn't the new guy the former head of Lexus? I don't see much change there.
Toyoda also will remain as chairman of the board.

 

Not sure why you would make those assumptions.
Electric Porsche breaks battery record by driving from LA to New York with just 2.5 hours of charge. I would take more time to eat and go to the bathroom than Wayne did charging a porsche on that trip.

Very few people make cross country trips in their cars, for those that do in a bev, there are fast L3 chargers. The case for the ice for the next decade is for people that either want an engine, or don't have access to L2 charging at home or work.

 

Yes, but you gotta admit all these EV manufacturers that are selling their cars before they're even completely built has gotta be infuriating to investors who are in deep with the amount of Toyota shares they bought.

 

In the UK there is a major lack of fast charge. Wales and Scotland are particularly not serviced. At Fleet services (M4) there are 22 fast charging units covered with a “coming soon” coverall. Looking closer it says “available spring 2020”. Yeah right. we have major issues here. Looks like the US is progressing at a faster pace

 

Akio Toyoda Is Stepping Aside As CEO Of Toyota. Now What? - CleanTechnica

Uchiyamada was the number one force behind pushing hydrogen and not developing BEVs. I think with him gone and Toyoda embarrassed by statements he had made, the path is cleared for a new CEO to embrace BEVs. Remember Toyoda struck up the partnership with Tesla, but Uchiyamada made the disparaging remarks about ev and sought to cancel it and did. The father of the prius as some have called him had worked on hydrogen and hybrids so long that he didn't like PHEVs or BEVs.

The RAV4 BEV, RAV4 phev, and the BZ4x should have taught Sato who never really was on board with hydrogen fuel cells lessons on how to do this. He can also look at the designs by tesla, hyundai, and porsche to design these things for performance and manufacturing. The big problem is it is going to take time to turn around toyota, but they still have deep enough pockets. I expect most bev plans will be delayed for the new platform and battery supply, but it is doable. I am quite glad Uchiyamada steped down.

 

Meanwhile Nissan just announced their new crossover EV the Arya is going to be the first vehicle to ever drive from the North pole to the south pole, which makes Toyota's half-baked science propaganda look all the more foolish!

"Ramsey is an all-electric adventurer and Guinness World Record holder. Pole to Pole is his planned expedition to travel from the North Pole through 14 different countries across approximately 27,000 km (about 17,000 miles). If successful, the Ariya will be the first ever vehicle to complete the excursion. Our mission is to show that electric vehicles can tackle the harshest of environments – from the bitter cold of the poles to the hot and humid jungles of South America, and illustrate that they are exhilarating to drive whilst meeting the daily demands of drivers around the world. " https://electrek.co/2023/02/01/nissan-shares-its-modded-up-ariya-ahead-of-17000-mile-journey-from-north-to-south-pole/

 

people buy ev's because they want them. even if one considers it regressing, there are multiple personal transportation fuel options.

 

will the anti ev bias ever end with toyota? yes, when they are competitive in the field.

i can't wait to see the scientists lining up to back them

 

According to this data the UK is expanding charging at a very rapid pace:

 

"Now, assuming a limited supply of lithium..."
We can also assume chickens are perfect spheres, that doesn't mean the results are valid. But let's go with the assumption. A whole lot of hybrids can reduce emissions more than a lower number of BEVs with a set amount of battery supply. A study that came out a few years ago supports this. It concluded that the best use of limited battery supply for emission reduction was to build mild hybrid diesels.

Is Toyota going to put the mild hybrid diesel rumored for the Hilux in the new Tacoma? A handful of those should reduce emissions more than a single full hybrid gas model.

As for the EV only purists, are they a strawman, vocal minority, or a truly powerful force?

General stores didn't have gas pumps waiting for cars to show up? While it doesn't help for those in a charger desert, the infrastructure is expanding.

The Rav4 Prime sold pretty quick in Japan, IIRC.

Toyota's statement isn't about limited supply of lithium, it's about their limited supply of batteries.

 

Nothing wrong with Toyota's approach. Most of us live in a bubble where we can charge freely without thinking twice. Ever go to SE Asia, Africa, South America and East Europe? Yeah good luck finding charging in all those places. Battery also don't work well in the extreme cold in places like Yakutia (do you want BEV to replace those cars too)?

Lastly, SD&E just raised rates again making it more expensive to operate and drive an EV vs pumping gas. This is not sustainable for people's wallet.

https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/files/regulatory/1-1-23%20Schedule%20DR%20Total%20Rates%20Table.pdf

.46 cents /kwh off peak .57 cents/ peak.

 

Then there's this:

hmmm - a ship looking for a new rudder?
Toyota reportedly rethinks EV plans | GoAuto
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