Toyota's long term sucess with prius will be short lived.

Amen. I agree. If not Toyota getting "back" to EVs, then a smaller up and coming pioneer will sell me an EV in the not so distant future.

 

Hard to say. It should be possible to retail artificial non-fossil gasoline for about $5 per gallon, and batteries are not cheap.

 

Yawn.

In a world still ruled by vehicles that don't have electric motors for propulsion, those 50kW in Prius are far from worthloss.

.

 

Eh. Viable plug-in conversions for the Prius will soon be relatively cheap.
I'll just carpool more often, drive a lot slower, and get >>100mpg with my future PHEV prius.

 

I disagree. Most of Europe has nearly always been paying double or even triple what Americans pay for fuel. They seem to be doing just fine with ICE's and high fuel prices. Yes, they do have better mass transit, but in most any European cities traffic is commonly jammed with 100's of thousands of cars going here and there, just as the US.

I don't think Toyota is shortsighted as you surmise...

Rick
#4 2006

 

$6 per gallon / $600 = 100 gallons * 48 MPG = 4,800 miles

Claiming people drive that much per month sure doesn't look objective.

That's 57,600 miles per year.

.

 

$600 @ $6/ gal = 100 gal of fuel * 50 mi / gal = 5000 miles.

You really drive 5k per month? Even if you do, you are better off with a 50 mi/gal vehicle than a 15 mi / gal vehicle.

If you are driving an EV 5k miles per month, then 5000 mi/30 days = 166 mi per day or if you are just driving on working days 5000mi/25 days = 200 mi per day.

What is the range between charges on your Rav EV?

Also, I agree with Rick above, the Europeans are paying > $6 per gal right now.

 

At $6/gallon, I would be spending $240 a month on gas.

 

My typical fillup is 7 - 8 gal. $6 * 8gal = $48


Don't misconstrue my post as anti EV - I think that is where we are headed, but you need to be realistic in your justifications.

I think you should check out this website to see where Toyota may be headed:

http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/tech/environment/powertrain/index.html

 

Okay, and how much will it cost to fuel a Yukon?

The higher the price of gasoline, the more valuable my Prius becomes, which is opposite to your conclusion.

And every dollar I save in fuel costs, compared to the average 20 mpg gas-hog American vehicle, is a tax-free return on my investment.

Harry

 

I've driven my Prius 14,000 miles in 18 months.

Harry

 

Sadly, there are many, many, many, many who do and will continue to do so regardless of price.

... Brad

 

At $6 a gallon I would be smiling all the way from the gas station. It's over $8 a gallon here already, so I suppose I'm happy already, just saving more.

 

I was thinking the same thing about this post as I drove home tonight, Viking 31 beat me to it..... The OP's theory needs to explain all of Europe....

 

Hands up anyone who uses 100 gallons of petrol a month in their Prius.
I fill mine every 3 weeks and commute across the city 70km a day or about 45 miles a day. If I put 10 gallons in my car per fill and I was lucky enough to pay $6.00 per gallon I'd be using 13.33 gallons every 4 weeks or about $80.00 worth of fuel or about what my Camry used about 2 years ago.

Oops, I typed this then saw others saw the same thing in the OP.
I can smell something that lives under a bridge. Either that or they think a Prius uses as much fuel as their truck which will be very useful for commuting when petrol is $6.00 per gallon. NOT!

 

For Prius drivers with HOV access stickers, it will feel like the cost of the stickers was a big waste of money . . . all lanes would then be like diamond lanes - as first the Hummers disappear, then the SUVs, then the . . .

It would be sweet sailing for Prii and other high MPG vehicles!

My Prius gets better than twice the MPGs of the car it replaced. So in "replaced car gas dollar" terms, it still equates out to $3 per gallon. SWeeeet!

 

I do not think that Toyota has been short sighted or that the Prius will be short lived. It will not live for ever, but it is the Model T of its time. What do I mean by this?....let me explain.

As of now..with 'everyone' on the road using ICEs, the Prius is amazing. It has a tiny carbon/greenhouse foot print compared to what the typical driver uses. It sips fuel and more that doubles the savings on miles per gallon. Some people do not get the 'financial payoff' quickly, others see it very quickly. It all depends on how much you drive. People say the average driver drives 15,000 miles a year. Some do that in 2 years. Some do that in 2 or 3 months. I picked up my Prius last on May 8th. As of this morning, I have just over 1,200 miles on it. I used under 25 gallons of fuel at a cost of 90 dollars. This is a savings of $170 in fuel I did not buy to drive the same distance in the Dodge Durango to go the same distance in which I would have spent a total of $260 in fuel costs. As fuel costs rise, I will pay more per mile driven, but my savings from NOT driving my old car goes up by the same proportion.

So as the Model T was not the first automobile on the road, the Prius is not the first hybrid. The Model T transformed automobiles because it brought them to the masses. The Prius is doing the same. Bringing petrol ICE/electric hybrid technology to the masses. There is a real learning curve about this technology. If there wasn't, Prius Chat would not be here. No one would need to learn anything about the technology. After so many years of the Prius and other hybrids being in the market, I was asked twice yesterday about recharging it over night and what happens when my battery goes dead. The majority of people have no clue still.
They are learning.

This is a market - the HSD and similar - that will be around for a while as the people of the world look for the alternative to dino based power for transportation. Once that alternative is found, this market will exist for many years as the world transitions to it, just as horses were used for transportation when the automobile was introduced and still popular for many years after as people slowly adopted the new technology.

 

Hi J.W.W,

Back in the 80's I experienced the same kinda attitude from some aquantances in an EV club when I began talking about Hybrids. But, the way I see it, cars are a very big industry, with lots of momentum and potential liability. Such organisations need to walk before they run, and the hybrid is the first step. Enough cliche's for you yet ?

Practically, however, the battery packs have to have an economic basis. Before the Prius there was not any economic basis for the Automotive battery pack. The Prius and other hybrid cars provide that. Give em 20 years, and the EV battery technology will be dramatically improved, and the next step will not be a big risky venture. We are halfway through that 20 years already.

Allot of this goes along with a talk I saw in college by Freeman Dyson. The title of the talk was "Small is Beutiful" The concluding remarks of the talk is that the big projects one should attempt should be those that one can envision to succeed in no more than 10 years, and no further. It looks like Toyota has done just that. The reason for this is that people's technological and scientifc extrapolation is just not good enough to go further. And if one pursues a project with unknowns, one has to guess at the resolution of the unknowns. But when things actually are done, they may be synergies, or insurmountable obstacles. Only with the 10 year limit are these unknowns going to be well controlled.

There are risks in not attempting to progess as well - as the massive losses at GM has shown. And $6 / gallon gas in two years is another one of those risks. But for a car done in the late 1990's and eary 2000's, the Prius is dead on target.

 

Hey Jeremy,

Which part of Alabama?

Actually Toyota started before 1997 when they came out with the first one in Japan. They didn't start USA sales until 2001 and just passed one million. Before then, Toyota had only sold gas-only vehicles for decades. They seem willing and able to change to reflect reality.

Two good old boys over in Scottsboro had always wanted to go lion hunting and after winning a Georga lottery ticket, had the money to go. They got over there and were out hunting when "traveler's delight" struck and they had to duck behind some bushes. Dang it if at that time with their pants down, a big old lion jumped out and started chasing them.

As they were running, one turned to his buddy and said, "Why are we running? Man can not outrun a lion?"

His buddy looking straight ahead answered, "I only have to outrun you."

Today, hybrids and gas-only cars are rolling around the roads and we only have to 'outrun' them.

Perhaps Jermy should start making electric vehicles.

Bob Wilson.