Toyota to halve hybrid price for next Prius

Imagine a corporation having the goal to half the cost of a product (twice) without being 'forced' to! What do these people think? They're in business for the long haul? Amateurs!

 

What do these people think? They're in business for the long haul? Amateurs!

I was most fortunate to have been forced to study under the E. Deming approach toward business during my gainful employment era. Toyota actually reeks of the Deming ideology, and because of applying this approach to their business & ongoing product refinements, is a testimonial to their customer satisfaction achievements. Maybe GM, Chrysler, Ford are drifting toward being the "amateurs", or have achieved it already.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(fish @ Oct 27 2007, 11:39 AM) [snapback]531252[/snapback]</div>

Another way for Toyota to stay relevant (especially if the IP problems are real), is too put price pressure on the other mfrs. If GM is eating $3,000 on the cost to produce the Volt and Toyota can drop the price of the Prius with NiMh batteries so that the effective cost to GM on the Volt is say $4,000 (while Toyota could conceivably break-even), Toyota will have turned the tables on GM yet again. A 33% revenue shortfall for GM will kill a vehicle line. If Toyota can get the 3rd Gen Prius on the showroom floors in 2009 and GM hits production snags for the Volt, GM is already behind the 8-ball.

 

Interesting. I thought Prius can get as good MPG as Diesel of similar size on the highway already. Diesel fuel has 15% more energy than gasoline. Does that mean, the next Prius gasoline engine will be at least 15% more efficient? I really hope Toyota come out with a HCCI gas engine. This way, we won't have to change spark plugs every 100k miles. :lol:

Either that or, the next Prius will use a diesel engine? hmmm...

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(usbseawolf2000 @ Oct 27 2007, 03:58 PM) [snapback]531283[/snapback]</div>

What are the reasons impeding the development of a hybrid/diesel vehicle?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(fish @ Oct 27 2007, 02:39 PM) [snapback]531252[/snapback]</div>

Toyota is not trying to cut the price of the product in half. They are trying to cut their internal cost, and the total size, of the hybrid system components in half. This is actually pretty old news; I'm not sure why they are repeating it now. The next-gen inverter, seen on the Camry hybrid and some Lexus products, is already much more compact than the Gen II inverter.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(brighamwj @ Oct 27 2007, 04:40 PM) [snapback]531290[/snapback]</div>

Cost.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(brighamwj @ Oct 27 2007, 01:40 PM) [snapback]531290[/snapback]</div>

Americans just never embraced diesel. And Americans are the biggest market.

 

Hi All,

This does sound like Toyota is feeling Diesel presure in Europe. By halving the Hybrid System cost the car would cost similar to a Diesel car.

Which is a TQM (Total Quality Management) approach, I guess, unfortunatly. Give the customer what they think they want. And the "they" being considered are the people that are not considering the Prius now.

There is problem in that halving the cost, the next Generation Prius might loose performance in FE, accelleration and/or reliability. Such a requirement from management might make an impossible demand on engineering. One thing I would be concerned about is battery size. A smaller MG2 would be another avenue, with a bigger engine. I am not sure I like these alternatives. The Prius battery is just big enough now, and making it smaller would make it very difficult to achieve high operating fuel economy, no matter what the EPA or Japan 10-? test says. Because these tests do not test hills. And the MG2 torque now makes the car superior in my view.

While I think it was readily doable to half cost between the first gen and second gen. More sophisticated techniques are much more readily learned from actually having cars to drive around and test. There is also economy of scale gained, and much more experience in manufacturing the specific part styles that go along with a new concept. These were the improvements to be expeced between a first and second generation. But they are now done.

But will there be as much improvement possible between the second and third generation ? This is questionable.

 

The way I read this is, Toyota is going to reduce the size of the hybrid system and keep the same battery configuration as the GenII Prius. With the advances in electronics, this is very doable.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(ServoScanMan @ Oct 28 2007, 02:54 AM) [snapback]531521[/snapback]</div>

Add in a NiMh battery pack that has maybe 25% more energy density (there is certainly room for even a larger battery pack with the same energy density), and the makings of a real problem for GM vis-a-vis Toyota's hybrid business strategy are readily at hand.

 

We don't know what PEVE is up to. Maybe bi-polar or large format cells? I forget when the patent expires.

The MG2 can be downsized and yet maintain the same power as seen in TCH (lower torqe but spin faster then output with mechanical torque multiplier, SRU). As someone already mentioned a more compact, maybe even smaller than TCH inverter.

And I hope some teconology from 1/X concept get used to lighten up the weight with usage of carbon fiber reinforced plastic.

 

I rented a Nissan X-Trail last month in Europe for three weeks. Same as the Pathfinder here. It was a AWD model, with a diesel and 6-speed manual. The mileage averaged 33 mpg. I only average 35-40 in my 2006 Prius, at best. If Nissan offered this vehicle in the US, I would buy one in a heartbeat, to replace my aging 1993 Jeep Grand Cherokee. It was quiet, handled very well, and had plenty of power. Imagine what a Nissan (or Toyota) SUV diesel hybrid would do. Of course diesel fuel in Europe is about 10-12 Eurocents cheaper per liter, compared to gasoline. Here the diesel price is generally higher than premium. Why, I don't know. Diesel cars make up about 65% of the fleet in Europe. Quick start, no stink or smell.

Last year I rented an Opel diesel Astra wagon in Germany, which got 35-38 mpg. It was also a 6-speed manual; very quiet, and responsive. Toyota really needs to work (soon) on a diesel hybrid system for the Prius. The oil companies say that it costs more to produce diesel fuel. It's farther up on the production chain, and Europe is able to sell it cheaper. Who's telling the truth?

Who needs gasoline.......... :angry:

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(brighamwj @ Oct 27 2007, 12:40 PM) [snapback]531290[/snapback]</div>

The price and reputation of diesel fuel.

Yep. Americans were stung by the awful GM V8 diesels of 10-15 years ago. Remember those God awful Olds and Caddies? The fuel smelled like a sewer, and the cars weren't worth the effort, or the re-sale value. Owners were swapping out their diesel engine for a gas plant, and biting the bullet.

Now we do have the low-sulfer diesel, with good catalyst systems, so there is no reason we can't make the (temporary) move from gas to diesel. Evntually fuel cells will take over, but E85 is not the answer, if we continue using edible food products to make ethanol. Hemp would make a great fuel source, but that's illegal here.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Clarinetist @ Oct 28 2007, 11:28 PM) [snapback]531854[/snapback]</div>

Diesel still has problems with particulate emissions. I keep hearing how new technology will solve the particulate problems, but so far, you can't go to a dealer in California (or the states that have adopted California's particulate standards) and buy a diesel car that conforms to California's particulate standard.

 

Hi Clarinetist,


In Europe the taxes on Diesel are much less than on Gasoline. This creates an artificial low Diesel fuel price. They did this on purpose to promote Diesel vehicles soas to reduce petroleum consumption. In the US, Diesel is not taxed at its energy equivalent level, so even here, there is an unbalanced taxation of Diesel.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(brighamwj @ Oct 27 2007, 04:40 PM) [snapback]531290[/snapback]</div>

Citroen and Peugeot are bringing out diesel/hybrid vehicles in the Prius size class in the next two years or so. Mercedes are planning larger diesel/hybrid S-class vehicles for the near future.

 

Regarding the weight, Nissan's X-Trail has molded plastic front fenders and bonnet, I wonder if Toyota could shave a few kilos off with molded plastic panels? I wonder how much steel could be replaced with plastic?

I think plastics have come far enough to be used in panels, they have already shown they are durable in bumpers etc although some early grey bumpers didn't fend so well. The plastic panels could be used on door skins as well I think, all the strength is inside the door and with crushable foam structural reinforcement a plastic skin door would feel more solid than a steel skin. Just a thought.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(patsparks @ Oct 29 2007, 06:07 AM) [snapback]531911[/snapback]</div>

I'm not sure how much could be saved with conventional plactics. The '98-'02 Camaro and Trans Am used all plastic panels except the rear quarter panel which was steel. The car still weighed 3500lbs without driver.

Still, replacing panels with thermoplastics (carbon fiber derived) would be a step in the right direction I think.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Clarinetist @ Oct 29 2007, 01:11 AM) [snapback]531851[/snapback]</div>

How are you only getting 35-40 mpg in your Prius? The real world average (using U.S. gallons) is 45-50 mpg, so you must have a short commute with a lot of A/C (uphill both ways?). In that case your diesel's mileage would also probably be very poor, so make sure you're driving the cars in a similar way before you make direct comparisons. I assume you're aware that there's something like 15% more hydrocarbons in a gallon of diesel than gasoline, so there will be 15% more CO2 emissions per gallon (irrespective of other pollutants, like soot, sulfur, etc.)