Toyota Says Prius Will Outsell Camry By 2020

By 2020, gas price will be $5, the Prius will out sell any car that didn't get close to 50 mpg.
This is just a self fulfilling statement.

 

Excuse my potential stupidity...or undeniable stupidity but is this a fair "Apples to Apples" comparison?

In May, when you asked, was it assumed you were talking about "The Prius" as a singular offered model vehicle?

Because the "Prius Family" vs. the singular model Camry...is a different showdown......

I'd expect that by 2020 a whole family of potential Prius Models...could easily outsell a singular offered vehicle called Camry.

 

How about Camry hybrid?

 

Even then, your still comparing 2 Camrys...to what will be potentially a line-up or family of cars...

Like comparing Yaris sales vs. SCION...

 

$5 in 2020?? How about $9 - $12 at that time?? If you aren't planning on gas going to $5 by 2013 and sticking there then you're not being realistic.

Gas was $1.25 in 2000 >>>> $5.00 by mid 2008 and we're happy now that it's in the $2.50 - $3.00 range during this recession. I seriously think that we'll be 'happy' when gas sinks to the $6 - $8 range in 2020 and complain about the spikes up to $12 or so.

Toyota ( NAISA last year ), Virgin Airways and the US Pentagon ( Guardian UK articles last Spring ) all think that by the end of the decade there could be massive worldwide shortages of petro-fuel.

 

The price of gas right now is $3.15 for regular. If it goes any higher, Toyota won't be making enough Priuses to satisfy the demand. $3.50 is about the point where the car market will suddenly change, and all those gas guzzlers will become unsaleable--again.

I would make that 2015, not 2020. The car market is tied to the price of gas.

 

My prediction is that by 2020 they won't even be able to give gas away. Somebody somewhere in the next few years is going to come up with something that will make petroleum based fuel obsolete. No, I don't know what that "something" is. It might be a very cheap, renewable fuel source, or they might come across an electricity storage device that makes batteries as we know them obsolete. Human ingenuity is amazing. Just have faith and keep an open mind...

 

My prediction is that by 2020, both the Prius and the Camry will be plug-in hybrids and both will likely get over 100mpg and the comparison will be trivial. We're talking TEN years from now. At the rate things are going, cars will be very different by then.

(at the rate things are going: Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Plug-in Prius, Hyundai Sonata Hybrid, Ford Fusion 41mpg hybrid, Porsche and BMW are even making hybrids, Tesla and Toyota teamed up recently ... look at the rate things are progressing today versus five years ago)

 

Who know what the model names will be in 19 years
in 1990 who would have thought in 20 years Olds, Pontiac, Saturn would have been gone
Chinese owning Volvo, and India owning LR & Jag

 

The whole "outsell Camry" issue was first "grasped" by GM. Think about it. They built this great EV, the EV1, and realized if it's a hit, it'll kill ICE sales ... and it will kill "service/maintenance" sales ... it'll kill "image" sales. Selling a "cleaner car" covertly says "clearner than our DIRTY" cars. What's an auto manufacturer to do? Toyota is doing the right thing, I think. Sure, their "cleaner" (hybrid) cars will slowly take away market share from their "dirty" cars ... but forward thinking says you realize those profitable but dirty sales will ultimately go away anyway. GM never saw that.

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With the Prius family coming, I could see that. Just continue to make it more normal and mainstream, mostly standard center console, some flair and swagger inside, give a little option for some sexier 16" shoes in mid-range, and Prius will do fine.

I can say this for sure - Prius actually offers me better headroom and vertical view out the windshield than Camry, no kidding.

Do fix the the steering wheel adjustment range, tilt range, and center it, Camry's got Prius beat there for now.

 

Gas prices are very volatile bro. Gas went from $4.50 low in June 2008 to $1.90 December 2008 (I have receipts showing this).

Certainly world demand for oil will increase and unfortunately, we will be using it for many years. I've got a couple bicycles in the house, I'm happy to use as well.

 

With advanced technology cars, first and foremost, just make them appeal to the consumer more than all other cars, not just on fuel economy front, but all ways.

I kid you not, IF this 3rd Prius had the refined, ergonomically perfected interior, little more sex appeal and swagger inside, give me the 16" wheel option, I'll pay the $x00 for them, big deal, I'd lose 1 or 2 MPG's max, little sexier, cooler look ... I'da bought it like this over this Accord.

honestly, I find the Insight II a little sexier outside and inside, but that's where it stops, whole car is too small. So, Toyota, just finish the look of the Prius, more will choose it over other family sedans. Can't wait to see what the v does.

People want a car that is happening a little cool. Prius is getting there, it's a great car for many people. Just keep it going forward.

 

Tideland,
I think Prius has moved into the mainstream, out of the niche category, with the Gen III already. It's the top seller in Japan (albeit with subsidies), among the top selling "cars" (and pretty high in the "cars", SUVs, light trucks category--all without subsidies) in the US.
In the US anyway, you can compare Prius sales to sales of any other model nameplate, and, whether it wins or loses, its in the competition.
And, within the past several months, you've seen it being discounted and otherwise marketed like other cars.

rpeeples,
On the issue of not being able to give gas away by 2020:
You wish.
I wish.
I hope.
It's possible that there's a breakthrough coming, but I'm not betting on it.
So, I'm afraid that we will have to deal with improving gas, diesel, electric, and hybrid economy and efficiency (and public transportation) as much as we can.

 

uh, maybe it could outsell the camry someday, but currently there is still a huge comfort difference between the 2 cars (speaking as an owner of both).

 

You're not as crazy as some people think. Indeed, the CEO of Volkswagen mentioned about half year ago that at the rate battery technology improves now, we could see by 2020 an electric car seating four passengers and their luggage go possibly 800 km (497 miles) on a single charge, with 30 minute charging times using a commercial DC charging connection. At that range, the days of the internal combustion engine for automobiles could be officially coming to an end. This enormous range increase will use more advanced lithium-ion or ultracapacitor battery packs with increased storage capacity.

 

Camry feels more 'normal' to sit in, Prius is still a little 'off', to me anyways.