Toyota says next Prius, next battery work going well

Sounding good!!

 

I got dibs.

 

I haven't been able to keep track of everything going on with Toyota or on PriusChat lately but has there been any conversation at all about the possibility of replacing the currently existing battery systems with the new design - of course at a cost??? Or is the overall integration of the battery in the total design to complicated to pull that off?

 

It would be cheaper to sell your existing Prius and buy the new one.
The prius has excellent resale, so you can get a lot out of it, should you want to upgrade. You'll also add another Prius to the national fleet that would not be added if you were to upgrade your current one. You also would have a warranty backing the new one, as opposed to voiding your current warranty.

 

I like how 'little' Toyota is actually saying ... and yet they're still saying a covert message, that we all kinda are able to figure. Very unlike GM, which continues to blather Volt PR, day and night, night and day. Actually, it's great that GM blathers on about the volt. Years ago, GM's endless bragging about how they were working hard on a hybrid, was what caused Toyota to work so hard on developing the Prius. Toyota was afraid they'd be left behind. So keep up the bragging GM, about what you're gona do someday ... so Toyota will continue to be pushed!

 

True. The difference between GM's "We're gonna give you the Latest and Greatest!" and Toyota's is Toyota actually delivers on their promise.

 

What do you bet the same week that hymotion starts converting individual owner Prii that we'll see an announcement from Toyota on what the next gen is, if in fact that next gen will have phev capability? No reason to announce anything until there is an "affordable" conversion in the market that the average driver can go out and get.

 

Hymotion conversions using A123 cells have 5kWh of power. They claim to go 40 miles with that... true if you stay below 40mph. However, most people will go around 60mph and use AC or heater and they will get about 20 miles range. Wayne Brown's test revealed that Prius can go 70 mph at 250wh per mile with AC off.

That A123 pack can achieve 200,000 miles if driven under 40 mph. However it is going to last 100,000 miles with "hotel load" 20 mile range since the life cycle is about 5,000. The cost of this pack and BMS are also about $10,000.

Volt's pack is 16kWh which means it can cost $30,000 just for the pack. Volt can cost around $40,000 from this estimate.

 

Reserve a Prius-envy Green for me, please. I'll manufacture the window stickers that we will all need. "Eat My(e) Volt". I am counting on Toyota to have a similar 'pioneer' program for previous Prius owners that they once had.

 

Basically, plug-in makes sense for people with short commute and / or slow speed.

It doesn't make sense for those commute more than 10 miles simply because you will be paying extra $$ to carry a dead weight. Double edge where you'll be carrying the gas engine at low speed while on long ranges, you'll be carrying the plug-in battery pack.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(usbseawolf2000 @ Oct 26 2007, 09:49 AM) [snapback]530743[/snapback]</div>

You've made a great case for pure battery EVs, certainly! Relative to my situation, a full battery EV as the best primary vehicle (used for commuting and trips under 200 miles - meaning used the VAST majority of the time), and a PHEV for the secondary vehicle that stays home for the rainy in-town short trips, the large-cargo-capacity shopping trips, and the occasional really long trips. That's the best of all worlds to me.

 

"going well according to plan".

OK. So what's the "plan"?

 

Too bad they don't tell us what the plan or schedule is.

If you take this at face value, it says that the Prius will not become a PHEV or BEV. Does this mean it will be in another vehicle/model/line not directly related to the Prius?

I had read a similar statement before where a Toyota spokesperson said in effect that bigger gains in fuel efficiency would come from "non-hybrid" related areas. This makes sense to me in a couple of different ways. Electric motors are already quite efficient (and the invertors, etc. are also relatively mature technology). Little to gain here in fuel economy. The ICE still provides all the energy (for non PHEVs). So the biggest gains will come from improvements in ICE (and perhaps vehicle weight reduction). Adding a bigger battery/capacity (using the same technology) just adds weight. One plausible design goal might be to actively reduce the battery (capacity & weight) for efficiency improvements if they are more than made up for by improvements in the ICE. After all, converting the energy in the gasoline to electrical energy stored in the battery is not very efficient at least for the current gen Prius. (If it was very efficient, then hypermilers would not be advocating pluse & glide and other techniques that actually seek to minimize EV mode.)

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(usbseawolf2000 @ Oct 26 2007, 12:49 PM) [snapback]530743[/snapback]</div>

I'm not sure that a battery pack that can hold more energy should be called dead weight, if it can take more of a charge from the regeneration componets and with that energy help move the car with the ICE. Is the current Prius utilizing the maximum potential of recharging the battery from the; ICE,Braking,Coasting or have their been lower limits put into use with this package to deal with the current battery?

 

Well, my next Prius is still going to have to do 800+ mile trips without recharging, so they'd better not lean heavily toward a 10-mile-commute-at-30MPH design. I hit 50MPH during the 7 miles drive to work now.

Similar battery-filling dynamics to what we have now but with larger capacities seems like a good balance. Stealth up to 51MPH for up to 20 miles would be excellent...

 

Okay, I have to ask...what car out there NOW has an 800 mile range between 'fillups' (whatever fuel)? Is this some sort of uranium-powered reactor car?

If range is an issue using electrons, imagine when gasoline becomes prohibitively expensive (and scarce) such that "range" will be limited not by the car itself but availibility/cost of said fuel.

The above scenario is coming, if not unfolding now.

any electrons for powering my car will be good enough. Incremental improvements will happen in EV range. Let's just get them BACK onto the roads (insert darreldd smugness here).

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(clearview22 @ Oct 26 2007, 01:50 PM) [snapback]530774[/snapback]</div>

I see your point. Even if the PHEV pack is completely discharged, it can still capture more regen brake energy and it is still of use. The current Prius HEV pack can charge up about 30 hp. That means, you need to brake 60-0mph in about 30 seconds. If Prius' battery pack can charge 90hp (3x), it can recover all the energy (conversion loss aside) in about 10 seconds. I know Prius' peak power is 110 hp to accelerate 0-60 in 10.5 secs but the gas ICE and the battery power curve is not perfectly flat (much better than ICE only car).

I think the key is to strike a balance between battery and ICE size/weight and cost. Let's say we have Civic Hybrid and Volt at opposite end of the extremes. HCH's gas engine is too overpowered over it's electric 15kW motor with the battery pack. On the other end, Volt's battery and the 160 kW electric motor overshadows the combustion engine. The striking difference between HCH and Volt is the cost to own and operate. Electrical components especially the battery pack cost a lot more. You are looking at HCH $20+k vs. Volt $40+k (possibly $45k). Volt may save a lot more $$ and cleaner than HCH for short and slow trips. On the highway, the gap is a lot smaller because gas engine is very clean and efficient. Using electricity (battery power) on the highway is a misplaced resource like using gas engine in stop and go traffic. Every hour you drive on the highway at 60mph, you will need to charge 3.5 hours at home (110V@40amp). Does that even make sense? On top of that, Volt's 16kWh pack would cost around $30k.

Prius sits somewhere in the middle with the same cost as HCH while providing more powerful electric motors (30+kW MG1 and 50kW MG2). Although Prius has the 50kW traction motor, the battery only makes 21kW (28hp). This is the reason Prius makes a great PHEV upgrade. Toyota probably chose to include 28hp battery due to the cost. The cost proved to be crucial to the success. Imagine if Prius were to cost more than Camry? It may not be as successful as Prius is today.

The next step Toyota see is with the advancement of the Li-ion over NiMh. Li-ion will ultimately give 2x more power yet 2x less weight (lighter). This absolute advantage of the li-ion chemistry comes in with a cost... for now. The cost is the reason why I believe Toyota is saying that Li-ion is not mass market ready yet plus the safety issue they are facing. Li-ion battery will push the EV/ICE ratio somewhere between the Prius and Volt while keeping the cost the same! Hey, it may give only 7 miles range but if that covers 50+% of the trips, it makes the biggest bang for the buck.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(finman @ Oct 26 2007, 03:10 PM) [snapback]530816[/snapback]</div>

And who has an 800 mile bladder. I'd never make it. :blink:

Tom