Featured Toyota Jack Hollis on Fuel Economy Regs

this pushback is just a constant part of the negotiation. both sides know they won't get what they want, it's just a question of where on the scale it winds up.

 

He's right. As long as gas prices are cheap in the US, fuel efficiency becomes a lower priority for the majority of buyers. Which leaves the manufacturers to deeply discount their fuel efficient offerings or pay CAFE fines. A few years ago, some car executives were calling for a floor tax on fuel to keep the lowest price at the pump at a level that people would have the incentive to buy those fuel efficient models.

The manufacturers can make cars that will meet the government targets for fuel economy, but without incentives, natural or government made, people simply won't buy them, and the car companies will fight the targets.

SUVs are at where cars were not too long ago in terms of efficiency. Which is good enough for most people, and those won't see any reason to pay extra for a hybrid or plug in.

The light truck CAFE targets are higher and closer to car's than they used to be. The current issue is that the formula bases the CAFE target on the footprint, area of space it covers, of the truck, with smaller trucks having higher targets. This incentivizes the manufacturers to make bigger trucks, because it is easier to reach the target than in comparison to the smaller model.

 

I think he is saying, to meet the MPG, automakers need to get extra big credit allowances for plug-in sales, and that only works if Congress helps by extending plug-in incentives ($7500) ad infinitum. But I bet some legislators are willing to do that - mandate high MPG and extend the plug-in incentives, if they get a chance...that's what I expect to see happen when the "dust settles".

 

Dust settles - I am thinking down the road...not in this tax Bill...

 

Already been proposed, White House says it’s considering increasing the federal gas tax for infrastructure - The Washington Post

Any more I say will get this moved.

 

People will buy compelling vehicles regardless of fuel economy (within reason). I don't think I've ever seen a Tesla owner bragging about their MPG(e) which, although low by plug-in standards, is exceptional compared to gassers.

 

I agree with the compelling part, but most fuel efficient cars aren't compelling to the general public. You and I find hybrids compelling. I think Toyota did a great jump with the new Camry hybrid, but most people will still just see a Camry that costs more. The sales of the entire Prius family have been trending down since 2012. Most manufacturers have to put incentives on just their regular, but still more efficient than a SUV, cars to move them. I have seen 2018 Fusion hybrids listed at $9000 off MSRP already.

The plug in segment has been growing, but they have characteristics beyond efficiency to make them compelling. They also have(had) incentives to help sell them.

Manufacturers are coming out with, and have more efficient models and trims. So I say keep the current CAFE targets. But the blame for people not buying them isn't all on the car companies. If we want to see improvements, we should also incentivize the demand side.

 

whatever the government does, the auto mfg's all have to follow the same rules. so none of it matters really.

 

What characteristics? I can think geo-political advantages of fuels sourced locally but what else?

 

stealthy

 

It matters in how the auto association tries to influence government. They have trouble selling efficient cars, they'll push to lower CAFE targets. If that happens, efficient options will start to disappear from the market, so we are back to the choices we had before the 2008.

FCA might already have canelled their smaller, Corolla sized, cars from Dodge and Chrysler because of the low gas prices here.

There is also performance, drive experience, ride quality, and ease of home refilling.
In a hybrid, you can feel the high torque of the electric motors off the line. Even if a plug in is just as fast to 60mph as a Prius, the acceleration will feel different because of the difference in the torque generated. Then all electric is quieter and smoother than having an ICE running.