To buy or not to buy.... 312,000 v 24,000?

Upgrade! If the 2016 has been well maintained, it sounds like a good buy. The '16 is a way more nicer riding, driving, and everything else car than your '09. I vote to bail out of the '09! Don't forget to ask for the brother-in-law discount. There's 10% off right there! By the way, what's he buying to replace it if you buy it?

 

In or family, it would be a brother-in-law up-charge of 10% ;-).

 

how does the price compare to the open market?

of course, trading up would be ideal. there's no telling what might happen with the '04, solid as they are.
how would you pay for the '16?

 

Let’s face it. 312,000 miles on any car is a lot. Reliability is going to be a real factor with your 2004 as more miles and age stacks up. There is what is called, a “Reliability Bathtub Curve” that is a statistical tool to generally predict failure rates. As you can see from the graph above, your 2004 is statistically in a wear out stage. Passing up the deal on the 2016 is an opportunity that will haunt you if you don’t take the advantage, now. Put the money into the 2016 rather than squander it repairing the 2004.

 

I don't know about your area, but here in the Bay Area, 2016 Gen 4s are going for way higher than $13k. IMO I think it's a steal LOL

1) Your brother-in-law already took the huge loss for new car depreciation (of course, the new car smell too).
2) You are to replace a 312k miles soon to be money pit with a reliable 2 year old car at a few thousand dollars below market price of $13k.
3) Upgrade to hybrid system and safety features from Gen 2 to Gen 4.

Go get the Gen 4 Prius, you won't regret it.

BTW, @BZzap! I like your graph! The lines apply to both cars and human perfectly.

 

Go for it, all the above stuff and a warranty. You will be surprised the difference in gas mileage.

 

It’s a fact of life...car or human.

 

Yeah, 2016 with that low mileage for 13K is a steal, at least here in the Bay Area, Ca. You could but it today and sell it in a year and probably break about even or maybe make a few dollars.

If your budget allows, keep the 2004 as a secondary car/beater as you wouldn't get much for it. Using it on occasion to keep miles off the newer car, carry a load, a secondary car if the first is ever in the shop etc. Obviously don't throw any more money into it aside from regular maintenance like oil changes.

 

LOL at the beginning of the curve (brand new prius) having the exact same "high failure rate" as the end of the life/curve.

Don't think this works on a Prius. Maybe on American made junk. Would also need to replace X-axis with "mileage" and not "time".

His 2004 is probably very reliable with the new battery. My vote would be to not spend over ten grand if money is tight.

 

It’s just a conceptual illustration. As you can see, the title doesn’t say, “Prius” or any other product. It’s abstract.

 

To sum up, BUY THE 16!

 

Well, . . . did you buy it or not? Enquiring minds want to know. Thanks.