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Featured The EV version of the "Dust to Dust" report

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, May 1, 2024.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Seen on Autoline Daily, I was disappointed to see (Electric Cars Are Driven the Least While Costing the Most - iSeeCars.com) which followed similar methodology to the notorious CNW Marketing report, "Dust to Dust." For the youngsters, this CNW statistical report claimed Hummers were more 'green' than our Prius.

    So here are the highlights of this latest iSeeCars statistical study:
    • Electric cars are driven 20 percent less than gasoline cars, but their higher prices mean they cost 63.6 percent more for every 1,000 miles driven per year
    • Hybrids and plug-in hybrids are also driven less than gasoline models, but only by 2.7 and 4.8 percent, respectively, making their cost-per-1,000 miles per year much closer
    • The average electric car costs $5,108 for every 1,000 miles per year it’s driven compared to $3,056 for a hybrid car, $3,123 for a gasoline car, and $4,351 for a plug-in hybrid
    • The Porsche Taycan EV is the most expensive alternative-fuel car to drive, costing over $22,000 for every 1,000 miles it’s driven per year, followed by the Porsche Cayenne plug-in hybrid at $14,681 and the Tesla Model S at $11,623
    • The Honda Insight Hybrid is the least expensive alternative fuel car to drive, costing $1,463 per 1,000 miles per year, followed by the Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid at $1,813 and Toyota Corolla Hybrid at $1,857
    . . .
    Methodology

    iSeeCars analyzed the odometer readings from over 1.3 million 3-year-old used cars sold from November 2022 to April 2023, and also compared these mileage numbers by model to the list prices of the same models when they were sold new. MSRP was used for cars from Tesla and Polestar, as well as the Audi e-tron Sportback. The average miles driven per year were calculated for each model as well as drivetrain, and the average new car price was expressed as a cost per 1,000 miles driven per year. The latter was used to rank models from most expensive to least expensive with respect to their driving patterns.
    . . .

    So this is my comment to Autoline Daily:

    In 2006, the long gone CNW Marketing published the “Dust to Dust” report that concluded a Hummer was more ‘green’ than a Prius. This report uses similar metrics which does not match my 130,000 mi, 5 year ownership of a 2019 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus.

    Trading in my 2017 Prius Prime for $18,300, my EV car cost $24,000 out of pocket. Charging at home cost ~$2.50 per 100 miles not counting the 15% free charging where merchants and restaurants want my business. On cross country trips, it cost $3.00 per 100 miles by staying at affordable motels with free breakfasts and charging.

    Because I pay the bills, I trust my “Lying Eyes” before this iSeeCars statistical study.

    This iSeeCars bogus report is likely to be broadcast by the usual suspects.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Just as CNW was paid by the dino juice industry - one necessarily suspects the same disingenuous sources will eventually be revealed. or maybe the author simply got his arss spanked by 2 seconds or more at the ¼ mile track by a Model S plaid.
    ;)
     
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  3. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    As I have pointed out before, you exchanged two assets for your Tesla. One was your $24k. The other was your $18.3k Prius.

    You received a depreciating asset which is now worth considerably less than when you bought it.

    So add the depreciation and the fuel cost to get a cost of ownership. Then divide by months owned to get cost per month. Or by miles driven to get cost per mile.

    My hybrid, when I do that, cost me $200 a month. Granted I have 1/4 the miles on mine compared to yours.

    What has your Tesla cost? KBB says a 2019 Tesla M3 with 133k miles is worth $11k ish. With 33k miles, $25k ish.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    2005 dodge dakota $24,000. (sold last year) 30,000 miles in 18 years = 1,600 miles per year

    2012 prius plug in $30,000. (traded last year) 87,000 miles over 11 years = 8,000 miles per year

    2023 chevy bolt $23,500. (purchased last year) averaging 1,000 miles//month so far = 12,000 miles per year.

    do the math
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I suspect the actual cost depends on selling the Tesla and mine is not for sale. So I filled out the KBB questionnaire and it listed Enhanced Autopilot, not Full Self Driving. I've attached the print PDF.
    • $9,290 - $12,829 :: Trade-in Range KBB
    • $11,060 :: Trade-in Value KBB
    • Ebay, 2019 Tesla Model 3, all variants
      • $16,995 - $24,995 :: Offered
      • $15,600 - $24,999 :: Completed sales
    The 2019 NMC battery ($15,000) and FSD ($8,000) are the most valuable parts of my Tesla. BTW, I paid $950 last week to have a protective film on the windshield and front half of the glass roof. But as I mentioned earlier, it is not for sale.

    My expectation for the Model 3 is 'end of support' in 5 years. This is based on the battery degradation life extended by growth of fast DC charger network. Also, future software not being compatible with HW 3 computer.

    I have some unique aspects that modify this math model but I wanted to follow the half-baked, iSeeCars, model. For example, I bought a 2017 BMW i3-REx ($15,000) last August to reduce Tesla battery charge cycles:
    upload_2024-5-2_5-35-39.png
    The city driving, BMW i3-REx replaces the Tesla city miles.This reduces the rate of Tesla battery degradation.

    Bob Wilson
     

    Attached Files:

    #5 bwilson4web, May 2, 2024
    Last edited: May 2, 2024
  6. Zeromus

    Zeromus Active Member

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    The real crime is using data from used cars, sold in 2022-23, that are 3 year old models - 2019s

    Let's consider the following:

    The sellers had bought a more expensive electrified car in 2019.

    Maybe a year or so later the pandemic hits and people drive much less than before on average. Many people were able to keep their jobs working from home if they were in office/white collar work. Fields which will generally pay higher wages than jobs that would have to be done in person.

    So people who bought higher end electrified cars, and electrified cars in general given the price premium would have even less reason to drive.

    So was the $/mile math adjusting for the massive shift in driving habits for the years of ownership that these used cars were owned under?

    How did car availability and the spike in used car prices impact this vehicle segment in 22-23 vs other vehicles? I remember people could flip new Tesla's for profit because the waitlist was so long for them, as an example. If the waitlist for electrified cars was double that of ICE, then the supply crunch pushed their prices even further inflating the $/mile.

    I don't think vehicle depreciation would have been a huge factor for 2019 model years being sold in 2022 for example.

    Maybe people had multiple cars and driving less during/after pandemic, they decided to just sell the more expensive of the two cars from a budget perspective. Why keep a Tesla M3 if your family only needs one car and driving is down to 100miles a week on average, and you own a paid off 2017 Corolla or Elantra for example.

    Unless they controlled for variables like household income and employment sector given how turbulent that was during the pandemic the statistics can be confounded pretty easily.

    And of course a more expensive car costs more per mile to drive. That's inherent and obvious. And especially more luxury and power cars will also be driven less because people tend to drive them less in general. Many people don't like to drive their luxury car in winter for example. So that would extend to things like a Porsche Cayenne Hybrid too.
     
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  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    From time to time, iSeeCars throws out one of these snapshot 'reports' to get headlines to drive more traffic to their site in the hopes someone will pay them for the real, in depth report. Everytime one comes out, the lack of usefulness gets discussed here.
     
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It lets us be ready when someone trots it out in casual conversation.

    Bob Wilson
     
  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    "iSeeCars press releases are essentially a single data point from one point in time. There is not enough info in them to see trends, learn causation, or learn anything of worth. If you actually want that, and not quote the press release for propaganda, you have to pay iSee Cars for the full report."

    I think that would cover anything in the press by them.
     
  10. oldnoah

    oldnoah Member

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    Hey Bob, long time no see.

    I've been seeing that virtually every automotive related post on facebook devolves into an argument over EVs. Doesn't matter how it starts out, someone will enter the chat and start spouting misinformation about EVs.

    It seems to me that the Anti EV forces are following the Russian misinformation playbook: co-opt as many willing and uneducated participants as you can to flood the web with misinformation and dilute the real issues. I'd love to discuss the actual downsides of EVs with people who are arguing in good faith, but they aren't out there.

    Glenn Arnold
     
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  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I know but helps to know who your chatting with. So I follow family and local Huntsville groups. Feeding the trolls is fun until the next day. They seldom listen either. Just BOTs.
     
  12. Isaac Zachary

    Isaac Zachary Senior Member

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    So cars are expensive. But I have the opportunity to go get a "free" 1985 VW diesel, that has some 700,000 miles on it, and it still runs great and gets decent fuel mileage, better than my Avalon hybrid.

    I like EV's, but I think the economic situation of the USA is only getting worse. So I believe the solution to reducing emissions is to either help the economy in a way that makes environmentally better solutions a no-brainer for customers and their budgets, or to just give up on the idea of owning a motorized vehicle.

    I can't be paying 50% of my income on a Tesla. It just doesn't work that way.
     
  13. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    Been to a ski resort lately? People who can afford a Cayenne are the ones going up to their chalets. They need a big car to lug their cases of wine.
     
  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    To be fair, from what you have said in many threads, you can't afford most new cars. Why pick on Tesla.
    Buy a used Bolt, or VW, or Versa, etc.
     
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  15. Isaac Zachary

    Isaac Zachary Senior Member

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    I didn't mean to pick on Tesla. Tesla's are around the average price of a car in the USA. Yet a person who makes a median wage can't hardly afford a base model of the cheapest new cars here, much less an average priced car like a Tesla. I'm picking on the current state of the US economy. Take home pay of $3,750 and rent that's over $2,000 and with current health insurance prices and food prices, then being told that insurance on a new car would be $200/month and that the interest rate on a loan is now over 8%, not 4%, and that no new car will be under $20,000 next year... At least I have a couple cars that run.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    When I was younger and lower income, I bought used and maintained them myself. Trying a new technology, hybrid or PHEV, start with used so you don't pay depreciation. After lessons learned, you'll know which way to go for new.

    For example, my buying a $15,000, 57,000 mi, 2017 BMW i3-REx last year gave me a backup, PHEV that should last another decade. More importantly, it extends the battery life of my now, well used, 2019 Tesla Model 3, 137,000 mi (for fun, get an Edmunds or Kelly estimate of their value.)

    Bob Wilson
     
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  17. Isaac Zachary

    Isaac Zachary Senior Member

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    Ya, well, I'll be 52 in August. I have the feeling that in 13 years, when I'm of retirement age, things aren't going to be any easier.

    I did try that with the Leaf. It cost me $9,000 and I sold it for $7,000 a year later. So basically the sell paid off the rest of the loan.
     
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  18. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Even cases of Two Buck Chuck have become way overpriced, or more correctly put - purchased with devalued dollars. It's lead to wine making has a hobby. The latest batch is rice wine so we'll see how that goes. Hoping it will turn out as nice as the grape & the Cherry fermented Elixir has turned out.
    .
     
  19. oldnoah

    oldnoah Member

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    In general, this is the best option, but it means having functional public transportation, or bicycle routes. You can get away with that in major cities, and it Europe.
     
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  20. Priipriii

    Priipriii Member

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    There are many downsides with EVs, but you have to be willing to see them. Do you think perhaps it is you that might be biased if you think there is no one arguing in good faith?

    The main criticism to EVs is how unconvenient and costly they are. If they were not, i would expect more people would be driving them. Allow BYD cars to be imported and sold in the US, and youll easily have a larger EV market.

    EVs arnt bad, there are just better choices and the consumer only cares about a few things like cost and usefulness. They also dont want to buy cars that will have no resale value or cost a lot to fix.