Featured Tesla Stock falls on production delays.

same old, same old. brokers are making a fortune on yoyo stories.

 

Tesla cut its forecasts at least twice and missed on the bottom end. Stock was up $3.30 in normal trading and down $4.49 after hours. It can move $5 on no news any day. Nothing to see here. I'm waiting for the quarterly earnings call and the SEC filings.

 

That had happen because "Trump's" alleged frontier wall.

 

2014 31,665 missing 35,000 cars
2015 50,557 just inside lower end of guidance
2016 76,230 bellow lower guidance of 80,000

We see a pattern here. A miss in 2014 of 9.5%, a miss in 2016 of 4.7%. Growth for the 2 year period of 55%a year. I guess we could say forecasts are getting better and damn growth is barely over 50% a year now as tesla has grown into a big company.

Boeing, Tesla, and GM fear trump will do a trade war with china and slow growth, but Tesla's growth really will be in 2018 after the model 3 hits big production. A less than 5% miss makes little difference, valuation and BEV volume depends not on 2016 - the past, but on the model 3 and how it will sell in the future.

 

I would like to see a name of another large American company with a 50% yearly grow in manufacturing products with a tag price of $80K and above......

 

there are still amazon haters out there.

 

amazon is not a manufacturing company. Its growth is about 23% less than half of teslas.

I do not think amazon will ever make money on retail. They do make a lot of money on prime and cloud. Amazon and tesla have both left their periods for long term investors and now they are trader type stocks. Most of the hate on tesla are from

A) People that hate the idea of green
B) Those that have been preaching that BEVs are impossible and no one will buy them
C) Those who shorted the stock and are taking up points from A and B.

 

however they make money, they have proven the stock price naysayers wrong.

 

I'm wondering if we are seeing a short squeeze right now. Up over $7/share right now.

The miss was minor, and if you include the cars in that are in transit to owners they made it. But the news doesn't seem that good, unless a big miss had been priced into it.

 

Demand for the model S and X were higher than expected. The miss was because of manufacturing not sales, which is bullish long term. Rumors of a miss were there, the fact that it was a manufacturing problem that has been solved is bullish for future deliveries. Big risks are when the model 3 is out, which is priced to be spring 2018 in volume. If model 3 hits in november 2017 the stock will boom. December 2018 will cause it to tank.

 

Prius Prime with 25 mile range, I have not visited a gas station since I bought it. Tesla stock should keep doing well as they are getting into solar home business.

 

The solar home business thrives/relies on homeowner tax credits, and financing for the installations.
How are tax credits for 2017 looking at the Federal and state level ?

Recall Suntech Power (STP) from $80 a share to $ 0.04 now.
Hoku (HOKU) was building a solar cell plant in Idaho. Like Tesla, next to a large supply of raw materials. From $14 a share to 1/10,000 of a penny.

The game changes if there is an increase in solar cell efficiency, say up to 35%, or a breakthrough above that.

 

this is what truly flabbergasts me - the 'Enhanced Autopilot' roll-out began months ago, and it's STILL not up and running at ALL for cars so equipped, and the Model X windshield ghost imaging issue still has no fix ... for all the months since the X began roll-out. Yet the buyers keep coming.
Unbelievable.

OH NOOOO !!


I'm still wondering why the whole market hasn't caved - what's the national debt up to? 18trill ? ... that is one overstretched giant rubber band.
EDIT
oops, sorry ... I under-guessed
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
.

 

Just my opinion: Other markets are in worse shape so the USA attracts foreign capital. More demand equals higher prices. I was expecting the rest of the stock market to catch down to the energy sector by now but that hasn't happened.

I also misread TSLA. The correction wasn't as deep or as long as I expected. It's a good time for the next secondary.

I believe Tesla can build the cars faster than they can sell them as inventory is increasing.

 

As for autopilot, Tesla is being extremely cautious. If this is software that is going to drive for me, I want them to do it right.

As for the windshield, it is rather minor. It doesn't affect everyone, and in cases where the issue is apparent, it is more or less noticeable.
Frankly, I wasn't aware the issue had not been resolved yet as we simply haven't been bothered to check on it.
At our 1 year service we will have them take a look.

 

stock price has nothing to do with the health of a company.

 

I agree, and disagree

The financial health of a company is reflected by the stock price trends, or more accurately the price/earnings ratio.
Short term trends don't mean anything by themselves, although they may indicate an underlying issue.
Long term trends are a better indicator, but still not absolute.

Also, trends for young companies are different than trends for large, more mature companies.
And trends for some types of stocks are different for trends seen in other types (think cyclical vs start up companies).

Stock prices are more accurately an indication of investor confidence in a companies plans and ability to execute those plans.

 

What happens? That is when Tesla has achieved its goal
Seriously though, those are good questions.
Tesla wouldn't be a company today if GM or Toyota, or any of the other established automakers had jumped into the market for EVs as Tesla had.
Now though, Tesla has brand recognition, a very efficient production line (although not as large), and the first few stages of an incredibly efficient battery plant.
I also don't see other manufacturers pushing EVs hard enough to hurt Tesla.
GM could wipe the floor with Tesla by kicking out the Bolt in high quanity before the Model 3 arrives in about a year.
As is, I won't see a Bolt at MN dealerships until September.

Tesla won't ever be competing for the highest volume car manufacturer.
But they will do what they can to show the GMs out there that EVs have a hell of a lot going for them.