Featured Tesla Autopilot lacking updates

more disappointed shorters?

 

In 2009 at the Detroit auto show, Denso had a display of their optically base pedestrian detect, lane following, and traffic sign reading system. Not only speed limit but stop signs too. So the 2017 TSS-P is somewhat disappointing.

Curious timing: Denso’s Largest Ever Head-Up Display Coming to the 2018 Lexus LS

Bob Wilson

 

No there appears to have been a couple of steps backwards as Tesla switched between mobileye and nvidia and brought autopilot software in house. The new hardware is more powerful, and should be able to do more than the outgoing hardware, but the software has been more difficult for the team to develop. Still there is kind of an over reaction. Most needed features have been added. Autosteering is now to 90 mph on highways, and to 5 mph over the speed limit on other roads.

In August Tesla changed the hardware on the model 3, to better deal with autonomous driving. This is just to be confusing hardware 2.5. I think the changes have been made, or are about to be made on new model S and X. s
Tesla Model 3: first look at new dual computing platform Tesla developed for Autopilot and MCU | Electrek

The computing hardware 2.5 is much better than the original hardware. The sensors, cameras, sonar, and radar, should be enough for self driving if the software gets done. The computing hardware is in a place where tesla can replace it. The software is now very good, but may still be behind software 1.0 software in perpendicular parking and rain sensing wipers.

Tesla Model 3 Autopilot in stop-and-go traffic with easter egg 'on'


Tesla looks like they can change that hardware fairly painlessly for customers. My guess is this 3rd software team at tesla will be able to add the functionality. I'm glad I have about 6 months before I get my model 3, for them to work this out, and for me to confirm they have done it right.

 

Just to add to the tesla updates -
Tesla dialed back Model 3 parts orders by 40%, says Taiwan supplier
Tesla and the EPA disagreed on Model 3 range - SlashGear

From this we get that tesla is likely to miss its 5000/week goal of model 3 in december, and is now looking at 3000/week. I don't think many believed the goal anymore anyway after september's supplier problems. My guestimate is there will be 8000 model 3's delivered in the US (mainly california) in december. This still is very encouraging for plug-in adoption, but model 3 production at least through june 2018 is going to fall short of the very optimistic promises.

The other bit of news is the model 3 actually does better on the epa test than tesla is going to indicate on the sticker, and will charge much faster than the 170 miles in 30 minutes if tesla increases the power of the super charger network, or the new 350 kw fast chargers get rolled out. Tesla model 3 gets 334 on the epa test, but unlike the model S it gets better mpg in city versus highway. Since most people look at range for long highway trips, its probably better to be conservative.

 

We called that 'sandbagging the specs'. Normally sales an management like to use optimistic specs and get burned time and time again when the product fails to meet inflated specs. But understating the specs leads to 'word of mouth' that you get more than advertised. For example, the VW TDI cars often gave their owners better than EPA performance (by cheating the emissions.) There was a decade of TDI owners who were correct in their 'better than EPA' mileage claims but blissfully ignorant to the VW cheat. Some were bitterly pissed when the lie was revealed.

Bob Wilson

 

Yes. No. Maybe.

Yes, its about perception. No its not sandbagging. Tesla doesn't really want to be seen as asking the epa to change the test, but a tesla model 3 is going to do worse compared to the epa compared to a camry or a bmw on long highway trips. It will probably do better comparitively than a SUV, but people know SUVs drink lots of gas, and new ones drink a lot less than those of 15 years ago. The problem is the epa testing regimen.

Part of the problem is people look at tesla range mainly for long trips, not day to day, where they will exceed their epa estimates. That estimated range is easily updated based on driving conditions on the Tesla display. Go 60 mph in good weather and yes tesla will exceed the epa estimate, but its a fast powerful car and people drive much faster on long trips. But this is a car sold in bad weather states, and people drive it fast. The charts actually actually tell people how much to slow down to get certain ranges.

Based on the previous model S numbers, the model 3 would probably get 275 miles at 75 mph , worse with an upgrade to 19" wheels and tires (which tesla hopes to sell ;-)). 318 highway would be from the epa number, far short of the 334 combined. I think 310 is probably the epa highway distance after about 4 years of battery life degradation. If you are stuck in la traffic of course the model 3 will probably exceed 400 miles, but that is only a small percentage of the customers. The other thing is as tesla makes the battery smaller and lighter with new technology, they may inch closer to the 310 epa, and that allows them not to change the range portion of the sticker if they want to save money by using a lower capacity battery (city mileage would go up as rolling resistance decreases with weight).

Yes awful on the tdi. As the grid gets cleaner, ghg and unhealthy pollutants from smokestacks fueling a tesla model 3 will go down unlike buying a new diesel, even if someone didn't cheat.

 

hmmmm -
i had to check the calendar date of the comment above ...
Sunday Oct 29.
But the next day on Monday - the discussion in another thread -
(post #522 here; Model 3 has 310 mile range | Page 27 | PriusChat)
it was brought up that EPA said the Model 3 should get a 334 rating, dispite Tesla saying 'only' 310.
Tesla could be underselling Model 3’s range and charging capacity, reveals EPA document | Electrek
Certainly the 275mph number is possible turning on stacking enough harsh scenarios ... sub 40° weather ... even higher speed .... pulling a grade .... heck, one could throw all 3 scenarios at it.
iow ... the epa doesn't do any of that sort of analytical overkill to other rides ... maybe they should? Most members here were appalled though, when Jeremy Clarkson drove a Prius at 80mph+ just so he could 'prove' that a more powerful (think it was a) BMW gets better mileage/range.
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<AHEM>
They put the Stig in the Prius who drove it around a track in race-car mode, maximum acceleration and maximum brake, possibly in "B" while the BMW followed at a constant, average speed. They claimed it wasn't the technology but driver style the defined the mileage returned. There are people who make a living doing similar driving stunts.

Bob Wilson

 

NB: Jeremy Clarkson is a moron. There have been reports that he is also an entertainer, but they shouldn't affect my first statement!