Some Questions about the Leaf

The question is how much will it cost in 5 to 8 years, not what would it cost now. You can go on the web and find out what the cost per kwh for LiPo batteries now (about $500 - $1000), but that is in small quantities and will go lower (compared to inflation) as manufacturing processes improve.

JeffD

 

The Rav4-ev has over a dozen years of history. Many have over 100 - 150k miles and still have the original packs. A reconditioned pack runs about $16k. Spread that out over 150k miles and you're not doing too bad.

 

As good as the Panasonic EV-95 NiMh batteries were (and I hope that LiOn can do as well), it is about $0.10 per mile! I spend $0.075 per mile currently on my Prius for gasoline (it's been increasing ). Just for comparison, if my 2004 Prius dies at 250k miles (I expect it to go further, it is now at 193.5k miles) depreciation would be $0.10 per mile,

JeffD

 

My last car cost over $0.28 a mile in petrol alone. EV's are going to be very popular here.

Toyota currently charge ~$2,000 for a 1.2kwh pack. Scale that up and a 24kwh pack would cost $40,000. personally i believe nissan are able to manufacture them for well under $500 per kwh. if it's $300 today, and $250 in a couple years time, then a whole new pack would be about $6,000 in cost. close to $10k seems a reasonable supply and fit estimate. but maybe they'll be able to offer a 36kwh pack for only $12k, which would be a tempting upgrade.

There again, maybe after the drop to 80% of initial capacity they will be stable for many many years. we just don't know.

 

hmmm, how much would it cost to replace your current car in 5 years? or your cellphone? or your TV?

no, lets do that in reverse, how much did your TV cost 5 years ago? ok, i can almost help. my Mitsubishi 55" Rear Projection TV bought 8 years ago was $2700. i am now considering an 80" (ya thats right EIGHTY INCHES!!) for just a few hundred more. not sure what 80" flat panels were going for in 2003, but guessing probably $15K?

or we could take my Blackberry, bought at 2 year discount for $350 in 2007 or my Droid X (which is waaaay more than double the capability) for $199 (could have got it for $99 had i waited another 6 months) last year. or maybe my Env (the original) in 2006 which was not even a smartphone for $249?

problem is, there is no way we can possibly predict what the cost of battery replacement will be.

now what we are told is expect about 20% range degradation in first 5 years and 30% total over the first 10 years.

so, we are looking at going from "estimated" 100 to 80 in 5 years, 70 in 10 years.

no doubt, some will not be able or willing to accept that and will probably elect for a prorated replacement cost. now Nissan has not announced this option but i think it obvious since they are building a factory to make 150,000 cars and a factory to build 200,000 battery units.

so that means being prepared for future EV models or providing warranty and upgrade options for existing customers. since there will be barely 50,000 on the market by the time the plant is up and running, there definitely appears to be plans to meet demand here.

 

nice "gas only" analysis. i am getting about the same, maybe a bit less per mile but seem to have to add about a $100 a year for other stuff. my oil change costs are very high ($75 for synthetic every 10,000 miles) and now that one Prius is leaving, the 2010 will be driven more so that will probably go up

 

depends on the condition of them. remember the pack is actually several pieces put together. the pieces will be analyzed then either recycled or used as storage.

remember EV packs have to weigh performance against weight (what else does weighing do??)

there is currently a "proposed" limit to EVs which is less than what most people consider to be the ultimate range. but that limit is due to batteries being heavy.

now, we all either do this or know someone who tosses a half dozen cinder blocks into the back of their truck every winter for increased traction. now they take them out in Summer because that weight lowers gas mileage.

well, the batteries are the same way. imagine a battery being a pitcher of water. everytime that pitcher is refilled, we toss a penny into it. now what happens to the capacity? over time, we cannot hold that much water due to all the pennies right?

but the pitcher which now only holds a little bit of water still is heavy. well that is why car batteries may not work for getting the car around efficiently but can still be useful in applications that dont require or have weight considerations.

keep in mind, these batteries, even if they only have 50% of their charge left and still store a huge amount of charge in a relatively small area. make a room 6' by 8' and fill it with Nissan Leaf battery packs. i think you will find that you can put a whole lot of them in there. now, make sure you have a good foundation because you are looking at several tons of batteries.

i "believe" the general rule of thumb is that EV packs are officially "dead" when their capacity drops to 60%. as you can see, that is still a lot of available power