Featured Solid-state battery wars

Not sure I’d be investing in them right now:

 

i'm sure we will continue to make incremental improvements in battery technology,

but i'm not expecting any miracles

 

“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” - Arthur C. Clarke

Bob Wilson

 

shorts?

 

Li-ion won't be obsolete in five years. There is still a lot of unknowns with solid state. A big one is manufacturing at scale. A recent headline in my feed was about a solid state company building 3D printers to make their battery. Needing new equipment to build the battery means ripping out the equipment used for Li-ion in factories, and installing new. That is a huge capitol cost that will be added to the solid state packs for some time.

Solid Power is the only one I heard of making use of existing equipment for production. The factory mentioned in Toyota's press release is just making the electrolyte, not assembling cells.

 

If this is a war, the battlefield isn't in some lab where you have a "breakthrough." The battlefield is on the assembly line and the war is cost per kilowatt of power. Whoever produces it at the lowest cost wins the war...

So if someone tells you someone in a lab has developed something that's going to revolutionize batteries, it's kinda of like someone who just signed a 30 year mortgage telling you they own their own home. I mean after 30 years of not missing a monthly payment that's true, but...

 

Your claim has zero evidence to back it up. Solid-state batteries live in the land of make believe... There's no factory, there's no assembly line, there's no way to compare its production cost per kilowatt with rate at which that cost is being lowered in relation to cost per kilowatt of Lithium with rate at which that cost is being lowered. Lithium assembly lines have lowered cost of production at a steady rate and the newest design announced by Panasonic and Tesla is a huge next step in lowering production costs. Meanwhile Solid-state isn't even being manufactured at scale yet. Kinda reminds me of someone sitting in the bleachers of a ball game telling the people around them that couch needs to put them in the game because they know they can win it for 'em.

 

Solid-state batteries live in the land of make believe... There's no factory, there's no assembly line, there's no way to compare it's production cost per kilowatt with rate at which that cost is being lowered in relation to cost per kilowatt of Lithium with rate at which that cost is being lowered

Yes, and solid state battery makers currently don't even have a roof or wall or foundation for their house yet so good luck re-selling it for a profit.

Most people like to buy houses that are already built.

Solid state batteries are no more than a CAD file on an Architects hard drive right now.

 

Maybe the OP is the company founder (S)he's trying to drum up investors.

 

There is three big limitations that slow EV adoptions.

The first is cost. Li-ion has steadily declining in production cost, and it still is. Solid state is going to cost more. If new production methods are needed, prices will likely be what around what Li-ion was at when the first plug ins arrived, but there may not be incentives for the battery then. Even if solid state could be built on existing production lines, different materials means the building of new supply lines. Then the companies will want to reclaim some of the money spent on R&D up front.

The second is charging infrastructure. Fast is needed to support long trips, which is growing, but most cars don't go on long trips. They just need slow charging overnight, which is also the more economical way to do it. That needs to be addressed from non home owners. No matter the battery type, Evs will be charged mostly by slow charging. Better fast charging times of solid state might allow those that can't slow charge some where to get a BEV, but the more expensive fast chargers have to be available first.

The third is mental. People are just used to the idea of an ICE car. A fast charging solid state battery EV might get them into an EV, but after living with it, they'll likely opt for a cheaper Li-ion EV for the second one.

Li-ion is going to have an advantage in recycling. We are building the chain for that, and recycling is a proponent in cell design now. It is last, if there, for solid state now.

The comparison doesn't apply to plug ins as a patent holder denied NiMH use in a competitive manner. Then the first commercial Li-ion cell was available in the 1970's. Brief History of Early Lithium-Battery Development Solid state batteries aren't even phones yet. You might find some being used in some medical devices at this point.

 

...Toyota Motor and other companies have invested heavily in the technology, and have already succeeded in building some solid state batteries. The hard part is mass producing them at a reasonable cost. Much of the excitement around QuantumScape stems from the company’s assertion that it has found a material that solves one of the main impediments to mass production of solid state batteries, namely their tendency to short circuit if there are any imperfections.

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Still, most people in the industry don’t expect solid state batteries to be widely available until around 2030. Mass producing batteries is “the hardest thing in the world,” Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, said on a recent conference call with analysts. “Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is very hard.”...
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The Auto Industry Bets Its Future on Batteries - The New York Times

 

Have been following them and others and aware of the reports. But as the article points out, industry experts say scaled production is not going to happen that soon. I would place money on 2024 not meeting that goal as well.