Prius Prime YTD sales vs Tesla

Source: Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Bob Wilson

 

i think most prime buyers are prius owners or new to the market. there is a discussion about where tesla buyers come from.
the biggest problem is the lack of growth of the overall alt fuel market, and sales of ev's outside cali, which has the highest incentives.

love what tesla is doing, and discouraged by toyota's tepid approach. market penetration away from the coasts is almost nil

 

Basing judgement on anecdotal observations is the mistake people made with Prime.

Don't do the same before knowing what mid-cycle will bring.

 

There is absolutely nothing anecdotal about Toyota's stance (read: overall effort) on EV's. It has been slow and with much resistance. They are clearly attempting to squeeze as much out of their hybrid tech. that they possibly can. They've been outspoken and negative about EV's, and that is clearly reflected in their product line.

At this point they are 3-4 years behind TESLA, at a bare MINIMUM.

 

It will be several years before we really know how well Tesla models are selling (long term basis). Currently many of the Model 3 sales are based on a back-log of pre-orders which have been strategically priced well above the promoted $35k/200 mile base Model 3. (Bait and Switch comes to mind.) Give it another 5 years plus the growing lower priced competition and it will be interesting to see how Tesla sales fare.

 

While I do agree with the wait and see approach with Tesla longterm, I do not agree with the bait and switch comment. If you don't want it, don't buy it. People are still waiting for the SR model 3 to come out next year with their original deposit. If they don't want to wait they can cancel and get their money back or pony up for the LR model. Nothing as shady as people want to make it seem. It's a startup company trying to get above water, nothing more, nothing less.

 

i can only judge by what i have seen so far. if things change after a mid cycle refresh, i will reconsider.
for now, i see prime as a compliance car

 

That's exactly what it means to be anecdotal. You can't just ignore the design & infrastructure being staged.

Since when does a legacy automaker have to align with a startup?

And how exactly are you measuring that? They have 2 very different markets.

 

charging infrastructure? haven't seen any from toyota, gm, nissan, vdub, ford, chrysler, mb, etc

 

That's quite damaging to some of the efforts we set forth, because it feeds a narrative. It is the very problem Volt suffered from. Not heeding lessons-learned advice from that is unwise. Some call it turning a blind eye.

 

if you were more transparent, perhaps people would be less judgmental.
your silence brings rain on your own head

 

The numbers pointing to Model 3 sales as upgrades/trade-ins of Prius vehicles would suggest otherwise.

The fact that Toyota could have entered into the EV market and took on an early loss to get going only hurts their position more. They have the capital to take this on and have stuck their heads in the sand instead.

 

Using early-adopter data (which is clearly identified by tax-credit subsidized sales) doesn't reflect what could happen with mainstream sales.

Know your audience.

 

Dont forget the strides Toyota has made on their hydrogen model. While it doesnt make sense in the US as there is basically no infratructire outside of California, on an island where all fuels need to be shipped in it is an understandable development path. Prioritizing development for their home market is different than simply being negative EV, especially when hydrogen is a much more promising technology path than current BEV. But yes, if we aren't going to have a hydrogen pump at every gas station any time soon, I would love a full electric with long range and Toyota reliability, and wish they would get on it already.

 

can you point us to scientific evidence showing hydrogen to be a much more promising technology?
i understand solar, wind and etc., to make electricity, but i don't understand how you make hydrogen

 

A BEV does not need public charging infrastructure to be a viable second car in many households. Hydrogen cars need the infrastructure, and it costs more. Then battery prices came down faster than fuel cell ones.

 

Batteries take time to charge, 3-4 hours, yes solid state battery's will shorten the time, when they are available, Hydrogen takes minutes to refill, if I lived where Hydrogen pumps were available I would prefer it to bev, or hybrid, when the temp drops Bev's lose 1/4 to 1/3 of their range, and require more coddling, charging just before use, not heating the cabin just the seats while driving, etc.


There are a number of ways to produce hydrogen:

• Natural Gas Reforming/Gasification: Synthesis gas, a mixture of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and a small amount of carbon dioxide, is created by reacting natural gas with high-temperature steam. The carbon monoxide is reacted with water to produce additional hydrogen. This method is the cheapest, most efficient, and most common. Natural gas reforming using steam accounts for the majority of hydrogen produced in the United States annually.
  
  A synthesis gas can also be created by reacting coal or biomass with high-temperature steam and oxygen in a pressurized gasifier, which is converted into gaseous components—a process called gasification. The resulting synthesis gas contains hydrogen and carbon monoxide, which is reacted with steam to separate the hydrogen.
  
  
• Electrolysis: An electric current splits water into hydrogen and oxygen. If the electricity is produced by renewable sources, such as solar or wind, the resulting hydrogen will be considered renewable as well, and has numerous emissions benefits. Power-to-hydrogen projects are taking off, where excess renewable electricity, when it's available, is used to make hydrogen through electrolysis.
  
  
• Renewable Liquid Reforming: Renewable liquid fuels, such as ethanol, are reacted with high-temperature steam to produce hydrogen near the point of end use.
  
  
• Fermentation: Biomass is converted into sugar-rich feedstocks that can be fermented to produce hydrogen.
  

 

if you lived where hydrogen pumps were available. that is your first mistake, there is no such fantasyland except in disney world, and even they don't have hydrogen pumps

fyi, you can fill a tesla to 80% in 30 minutes, and you can leave your house with a full charge every morning.
try that with your home hydro station

btw, none of your hydrogen production sounds efficient