Featured Possible uptick in new car mileage

I'd say that it's more than just the one-way clutch - it merely allows MG1 to contribute power along with MG2, without spinning the engine backwards. That means that there's actually the power available to actually do 84 mph with the engine off, but a smaller battery wouldn't be able to supply that much power anyway.

There's also the higher RPM MG1 (10,000 RPM), which mechanically enables higher speeds, and the Liftback gets that too (fun fact, the Liftback could hypothetically do something like 95-98 mph with the engine off, with its taller gearing - the control laws don't allow it, but it is mechanically possible).

And, finally, there's the electric transmission oil pump, which helps keep the transaxle cool even when running at high speeds with the engine off. (The Liftback's version of the P610 uses an engine-driven pump, and that's why the control laws start the engine even when it's not needed for propulsion power above somewhere between 68 (Toyota's claim) and 73 (my experience) mph.)

Back on the original topic, though... one thing that might be informative is to look at the HybridCars.com dashboard, and its highlighting of the changes in take rate - take rate affecting CAFE - for efficient vehicles.

Hybrid take rate is 2.18% for April 2017, 2.10% year to date, compared to 1.85% year to date last year. (Also, hybrid sales have increased year to date, despite a declining market. And, they didn't decline as much as the industry this month.)

PHEV take rate is 0.50% for April 2017, 0.49% year to date, compared to 0.33% year to date last year. (Same trends on the PHEVs, although they've increased significantly year to date.)

BEV take rate is 0.42% for April 2017, 0.50% year to date, compared to 0.37% year to date last year. However, you have Tesla reporting in here, which makes the month-to-month take rate look weird - Tesla's sales have cratered, but Tesla sales figures are merely guesses. I also feel like you've got a market that's waiting for new product, affecting sales. The BEV market is up significantly YTD, but down significantly in April.

Diesel take rate (it does affect CAFE) is 0.66% for April 2017, 0.53% year to date, 0.79% last year. The reason for the spike in diesel take rate is... a bunch of new 2015 TDIs got sold in April, and the Cruze Diesel and Jaguar XF diesel are rolling out. It being down from last year is likely fallout from Dieselgate. Edit: I forgot, both Daimler and FCA failed to certify some of their diesels for 2017. That'll take a lot of sales out.

 

Overlay gas prices and you may see why it plateaued.

From 2013 to 2016 gas prices have dropped quite significantly in the $/gallon
2013 = $3.505
2014 = $3.358
2015 = $2.429
2016 = $2.143

That has definitely put more people in SUVs because they don't see the extreme cost of operation. Several coworkers have bought quite fuel inefficient cars/SUVs recently. I still remember the $4.15/gallon I paid to fill my 2006 Chevy Blazer. That thing got 15 in the city. I hated it and got rid of it ASAP. Some folks may just have amnesia. For now I will enjoy my $20 fill ups.

Overall, cars are becoming more fuel efficient just from technology improvements. It is sad the Obama fuel requirements are dead in the water. The only real way to change it is to use our wallets as consumers.

Awesome write up about this tech. It will be interesting to see how much this will affect efficiency gains.

 

Makes sense to me. My wife's 2015 Outback AWD gets better real world mpg (30) than her previous, tiny 09 Honda Civic 5sp coupe (29); both hwy commuters.

 

(I agree with your comments and analysis), but...
The Prius plug in can go up to 62 mph (100 km/h) in EV mode.

Mike