Featured Not alone in feeling that Toyota is missing the EV-boat (article)

We've heard the narrative over and over. There are some who simply detest their approach, insisting upon rapid results. So, they undermine by omitting, selecting, misrepresenting. It's really sad.

For those who have the patience to wait for a more refined product, we see the first of Toyota's upcoming BEV brand being prepared for production.

Search for "bZ4X". You'll be surprised how well planned out Toyota's strategy actually is.

 

Don't search for "electric boat".

Electric powered outboards for boats - Torqeedo

 

If you create distortions like part purchasing cars for people ... you often get unintended outcomes .. however they still should get good CO2 reductions in other countries.

 

I want a SSB in a Toyota with 500 miles range for $30k with zero reduced battery capacity over 12 years in a SUV form factor with all the accessories and features of a current top of the line Lexus with a $15k tax rebate.

And in reality I'll buy in 3 years what is available then that fits my perceived needs and wants then.

 

In the US, Toyota's non-hybrid models do not stand out from the rest in terms of fuel economy and emissions. The Land Cruiser, Sequia, Tacoma and Tundra are actually some of the worse for their segments. Lower fuel economy targets meant that Toyota didn't have to release their latest engine and transmission technology in the US right away, and thus reap the profits of using older technology for longer.

Even with the success of Rav4 hybrid, hybrid sales in the US are still a tiny part of their total. Keeping up their current profits means trying to hold increases to standards back.

Their current BEVs look to be a generation behind the rest of the market. I am unaware of an actual release date for their next BEV. Until it does come out, Toyota will work against them in general, and specifically any incentive that won't fully benefit them.

With two car models planned to get an hydrogen engine in the near future, it seems Toyota is still actively supporting hydrogen as a car fuel. Engined cars will let them get more hydrogen using cars out on the road for less loss on their part. Fuel cells make better use of the hydrogen, but the cost reduction from large scale production doesn't happen until 100k units are made a year. Toyota is only making 30k, and current refueling infrastructure may not support more.

 

i'm not waiting for a toyota ev, and i doubt many others are either. i'm waiting for an ev that fits my needs, and the selection just isn't there yet. i don't care if it is toyota, honda, nissan, kia, ford, gm, hunday or some chinese model, it just has to work for me.

as for toyota's lobbying, i hope they lose. we need more bev encouragement. we crossed the hybrid bridge years ago.

 

It's interesting how some use lobbying as a distraction. If you can keep attention on a cherry-picked activity elsewhere, your big mistake unfolding will hopefully go unnoticed.

Naysayers can spin whatever they want. It won't stop the Toyota juggernaut though. We already see how much practical experience they have accrued through a variety of limited real-world rollouts... all that prior to a widescale dedicated model offering. Something others would have benefited from.

People always feared GM would screw so bad, delivering a rushed offering with such confused messaging, that it would negatively setback the entire industry. Sure enough, it happened twice... with Volt and Bolt. That was actually their third very expensive failure, but Two-Mode was tiny in comparison.

Reality is brutal, especially when challenges aren't taken seriously. In other words, don't waste time on narratives. Seek out detail to confirm the bigger picture.

 

Know your audience. Mainstream consumers have different expectations. They want a robust battery. No replacement. No risk of fire. It has been that way for entire decade now. History of Volt makes that very easy to confirm.

For perspective, think about how many people will actually care what was offered when. That's completely pointless for someone shopping before we even have a DC fast-charging standard established. How long will that take still? Speed... Location... Pricing... None of that means anything to such an audience yet.

As for results, look for substance. Notice how flawless Prius Prime has delivered EV driving? That rollout was so successful, we now have a RAV4 Prime too. Think about how much of that same technology will be shared with bZ4X.

 

GM's failure with the Volt was in not expanding the drive train to other models in the US. They did so in China. If the three sedans made along side the Volt hadn't been cancelled, and the plant closed, the Volt might still be available here.

The problem with the Bolt isn't GM, but the battery supplier. Which is negatively affecting Hyundai also.The new model is in the price range of BEVs with under 200 mile ranges, and a larger, crossover option is available.

If solid state batteries come to cars, the cost will be back up to where they were when the Volt and Leaf first came out. IIRC, Toyota claimed the PiP's pack was $1500 per kWh.

Isn't the Lexus UX300e available to you? It's a Leaf with a luxury price tag, but still a Toyota BEV.

 

What is the attraction of a 200 mile range vehicle? Maybe as a second commuter car to drive to the local school, station or grocery store?

But my world includes many 50 mile one way trips after doing other things. Doctors, hospitals, grandkids and even many stores. No chargers seen at any yet. So factor in battery degradation over time, the effects of cold (or even the 91 days a year it is in the 90s), rain or snow and 200 just doesn't suffice for those.

And what about resale after 8 years of battery degradation?

Yes there are folks for whom 200 would be enough but are there enough of them at the price point?

 

I would say yes.
Numerous studies have shown the average driver travels far fewer miles than you.
For me, 200 miles would work great for our main vehicle. 125 would work for our second vehicle.

Most two car families I know have one vehicle they prefer for trips.
I would guess about 2/3rds of cars are sold to a two+ vehicle household. Even if that means only 1/3rd of vehicles sold don’t go on trips, that is still a lot of room for the EV market to grow.

 

I think GM has to bare some responsibility in that they chose this supplier and battery type. They are now paying the price in terms of the cost and damage to their reputation and that is something Toyota is very conscious of.

What is interesting is that Tesla have fires as well, but there are no voluntary recalls yet and it does not seem to impact their sales so much. The reason I think is that Tesla buyers are much more accommodating of things like fire risk, whereas Toyota know (and now GM does as well) that their target market will not accept fire risk and would also demand a recall if this occurred.

 

The reality is that the economic benefit of EV subsidies mostly go the people who can afford expensive cars. I can't see how this can be changed other than providing greater subsidies to people on lower incomes.

However EV subsides are not really about providing equatable benefit and from my experience they are also an expensive way to reduce CO2 emissions. You solar panels would probably have a much lower CO2 $/tonne cost than an EV purchase.

 

Going with LG Chem let GM get packs into the first Bolt for a few dollars more than $100 per kWh. GM bears some blame for choosing a supplier, but it isn't like LG Chem was a small company with no experience in the field.

There have been twelve Bolt fires, and three Model S ones. Far more traditional cars have fire from faulty 12V switches. More have been recalled for such switches, and more owners warned about parking them in garages because said switches. There are plenty of ignition sources and fuel in any car. EV ones make the news because they are the new thing.

GM is doing the right thing in recalling the Bolt, but a recall, even massive ones, don't make a car model a failure.

 

90% retention after 10 years is what Toyota is targeting. With LFP batteries, that would seem to be realistic.

 

Do you have a source for non crash Telsa battery fires? NHTSA opened an investigation into Model S & X fires in 2019, but I can't see any results of that investigation.

Added - "The Washington Post has documented at least five fires involving the Model S, including the blaze on Dec. 30, 2020, that destroyed much of the Vindums’ home in San Ramon." ... however these 5 may are probably only in the US and would not include the recent Model S Plaid fire.

 

How's about a Rivian:

EV start-up Rivian beats Tesla, GM, Ford as first automaker to produce electric pickup

I'll be in the new vehicle market eventually and this is at the top of the list.

Can't wait forever so the audience can be determined.