Mats-Ola Larsson, their colleague at IVL, has calculated how long you need to drive a petrol or diesel car before it has released as much carbon dioxide as an electric car battery. The result was 2.7 years for a battery of the same size as Nissan Leaf and 8.2 years for a battery of Tesla size, based on a series of assumptions. New Study: Large CO2 Emissions From Batteries Of Electric Cars | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
Considering the life of a Tesla battery only lasts 10 years,You only get 18 % CO2 reduction over an internal combustion.
Anyone read Swedish? I don't. Please link a non-google, proper English translation if you have it. This has been studied extensively: http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf
These also found substantial CO2 savings: LowCVP News - LowCVP study highlights importance of measuring whole life carbon emissions http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es903729a http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media_IOE/files/BatteryElectricVehicleLCA2012-rh-ptd.pdf This one is perceived as an 'outlier' in that it found the smallest CO2 lifecycle savings by lithium EVs: Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles - Hawkins - 2012 - Journal of Industrial Ecology - Wiley Online Library +++ Leaving it to mojo to find and link a study internet-published by a financial adviser who also advised his clients to 'short' Tesla stock.
The summary appears more pessimistic than the rest of the article. Figure 2 shows a large range in the EV lifecycle CO2 based on electricity sources and they also note: For cleaner, renewable, and less carbon-intensive energy sources, such as wind energy, these benefits are intensified and accompanied by gains in terms of GWP and FDP. Wind power electricity would allow electric transportation with life cycle carbon footprints as low as 106 g CO2-eq/km. On the other hand, the use of electricity from lignite combustion leads to a life cycle GWP of 352 g CO2-eq/km, significantly worse than the comparable ICEV performance. The use of electricity from natural gas combustion seems to constitute the break-even point for EVs relative to diesel ICEVs in terms of GWP. However, human and water toxicities along with metal depletion potentials are always greater for electric transportation independent of the electricity source. Would be nice for a source on the last line there. Fracking, anyone? Most EVs are concentrated in places like California with cleaners grids and more renewables. Solar also wasn't analyzed. The article is from 2012 and solar, other renewables, and the cleanliness of the grid has come a long way since.
A Tesla batt is 85 kWh. The 'Swedish' high number is 200 kg CO2 produced in manufacture of 1 kWh batt. One can presume that amount of CO2 was all from electricity that the battery maker needed to buy. From that, that fraction of cost of Tesla-size batt would be $5000 to $10,000. Depends on how that electricity is 'made' and its price. Now, such batteries cost whatever they cost. Certainly there are more costs to them than manufacturing electricity required. But if we doubt the $5000 to $10,000, we are also obliged to doubt the 200 kg CO2 per kWh 'Swedish' number.
Tesla's chief technical officer, JB Straubel was addressing a crowd of students at the University of Nevada when he said, "We are going to build a zero-emissions facility, just like that car. So, instead of fighting this battle in hindsight, we just said we are not even going to have a natural gas pipeline coming in to the factory, so we didn't even build it. There's a heat pump technology that is way more efficient than just burning natural gas for steam--and then, we have a facility that has basically no emissions." Elon Musk's Tesla Gigafactory Launches Epic, Zero-Emission American Manufacturing Era | Inc.com
If Gigafactory does not buy grid electricity, well that's end of discussion. But - are the 'cells' made there or elsewhere? This is supposedly the CO2 maker. Tack-welding cells together and putting them in a box ain't much.
The cells are made at the Gigafactory (January 4, 2017 article): Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy through increasingly affordable electric vehicles in addition to renewable energy generation and storage. At the heart of these products are batteries. Today at the Gigafactory, Tesla and Panasonic begin mass production of lithium-ion battery cells, which will be used in Tesla’s energy storage products and Model 3. The high performance cylindrical “2170 cell” was jointly designed and engineered by Tesla and Panasonic to offer the best performance at the lowest production cost in an optimal form factor for both electric vehicles and energy products. Production of 2170 cells for qualification started in December and today, production begins on cells that will be used in Tesla’s Powerwall 2 and Powerpack 2 energy products. Model 3 cell production will follow in Q2 and by 2018, the Gigafactory will produce 35 GWh/year of lithium-ion battery cells, nearly as much as the rest of the entire world’s battery production combined. Battery Cell Production Begins at the Gigafactory | Tesla
OK, got it. Solarizing entire process makes a big difference in lifetime CO2, even starting from manufacturing figures much lower than 200 kg CO2 per kwh. +++ In most car factories, painting takes more electricity than welding and everything else. So I have seen in videos. I was surprised there also.
now we have to figure in the solar panel production, if you buy into the article's premise, as the o/p seems to.
Seems just a matter of time, go back up the supply chain all the way to raw materials extraction and recycling. Keep moving up and greening the processes along the way. We're already making great strides.
Totally in favor of full 'cradle to grave' analyses. Don't know how often such are done for thermal power plants. Would be O/T here though. I guess it remains hypothetical that electrical car batteries would serve in a substantial way to levelize power grids. But if that later happens, it could move them into negative CO2 in a different way.
From the OP link, "The calculation is based on the assumption that the electricity mix used by the battery plant is based by more than half by power generated by fossil fuels. In Sweden, power generation predominantly consists of zero-carbon nuclear and hydropower, as a result of which lower emissions can be achieved." What a surprise, how the electricity used in making things is made has an impact on the carbon emissions for making those things.
New study, with a twist that 'vehicle to grid' may extend battery life: Clean energy stored in electric vehicles to power buildings -- ScienceDaily
Quoted tweet says in part "First approximation of CO2 is production cost". This was also my approach. Odd to think one's mental process parallels that of a gazillionaire.
