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More sea level rise potential

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Oct 15, 2022.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My understanding is the current global sea level rise remains a product of surface water temperature. Don't get confused by local subsidence or emergence. But the elephant in the room remains polar ice leaving the land and slipping into the oceans.

    Source: East Antarctic glacier melting at 70.8bn tonnes a year due to warm sea water | Antarctica | The Guardian

    The Denman ice shelf in east Antarctica is melting at a rate of 70.8bn tonnes a year, according to researchers from Australia’s national science agency, thanks to the ingress of warm sea water.

    The CSIRO researchers, led by senior scientist Esmee van Wijk, said their observations suggested the Denman glacier was potentially at risk of unstable retreat.

    The glacier, in remote east Antarctica, sits atop the deepest land canyon on Earth. It holds a volume of ice equivalent to 1.5m of sea level rise.

    Until relatively recently, it was thought east Antarctica would not experience the same rapid ice loss that is occurring in the west. But some recent studieshave shown warm water is reaching that part of the continent too.

    The Australian scientists used profiling float measurements to show how much warm water was reaching the deep trough that extends beneath the glacier. They had been intending to study another glacier – the Totten – but when the float drifted away it approached the Denman.

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    and yet, they will rebuild fort meyers for the next disaster and federal relief
     
  3. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    We have the problem in Virginia/Maryland etc.
    Actually 3 problems:
    (1) Regional subsidence due to land mass rebounding (sinking) from ice age glacier period
    (2) Ground water extraction for drinking/industry
    (3) Sea level rise

    Right now I believe 1+2 ~= 3 in other words are seeing 2x effect of sea level rise itself...
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    @wjtracy post-glacial rebound normally leads to land rising not sinking. So I do not understand your statement. What was maximum ice thickness around there, during the previous glacial? Not so thick I would presume.
     
  5. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I understand the thick mass of glaciers to cause the land immediately underneath to sink, which in turn causes the uncovered land a ways beyond the terminus to rise a bit. Also known as a forebulge. As the newly unloaded crust under the former heavy ice rebounds, the forebulge collapses.

    See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-glacial_rebound. This map shows both rising and falling crust:
    upload_2022-10-18_19-2-25.png

    "A model of present-day mass change due to post-glacial rebound and the reloading of the ocean basins with seawater. Blue and purple areas indicate rising due to the removal of the ice sheets. Yellow and red areas indicate falling as mantle material moved away from these areas in order to supply the rising areas, and because of the collapse of the forebulges around the ice sheets."
     
    #5 fuzzy1, Oct 18, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2022
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  6. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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  7. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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  8. RRxing

    RRxing Senior Member

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  9. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    We have, and are getting quite good at it.
    Problem is, we are running the experiments when we don’t want the warming.
     
    #9 Zythryn, Oct 19, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2022
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  10. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    #10 John321, Oct 19, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2022
  11. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Individual countries will never be able to control the climate.
    However, they can, and currently do influence the climate.
    And the climate is simpler than economies.
     
  13. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    The Complexity of Climate Change | Cornell Research

    "Climate change is one of the pressing issues of the twenty-first century. The factors contributing to it are complex, and the more we know, the more complicated the situation becomes. There are no easy fixes"

    The climate crisis is complicated – taking responsibility is not - Compensate

    It’s Complicated: The Solution to Climate Change | Adirondack Park: Conversations about Conservation (middlebury.edu)

    A person can easily control their finances and manage the effects of an economy the same as a responsible country can manage their money reserve, monetary flow and economic factors.

    I am interested how a person or country can easily control the weather or climate - think dinosaurs, volcanos, meteor impacts, earth's rotation in relation to the sun etc.. Might all lead one to believe the climate is unpredictable and dangerous with results that can be catastrophic and planet/life changing, hardly simpler than economics.

    Remember the time man has been on the planet earth is an insignificant blip on the radar- the earth will likely be here long after man's time has passed.
     
    #13 John321, Oct 19, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2022
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    We covered this yesterday, over at https://priuschat.com/threads/boston-u-lab-creates-a-covid-variant-with-80-lethality.236444.

    The original, ancestral, unaltered covid virus had 100% lethality in these test subjects, a particular strain of mice, so this research produced a less-lethal variant (though more lethal than the omicron variant). But a Brit tabloid took it out of context and ran a scare story. Now it appears that a domestic outlet followed suit, without checking with other followups.


    https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/10/17/boston-university-covid-researchers-combine-omicron-spike-protein-with-original-virus-test-strain-on-mice/

    "The scientists in BU’s National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories found that all mice infected with only the BA.1 omicron variant had mild cases and survived, while the combined omicron spike protein with original COVID-19 virus strain inflicted severe disease with an 80% mortality rate.

    When mice were infected with just the original, ancestral virus strain, 100% of the mice died.

    “First, this research is not gain-of-function research, meaning it did not amplify the Washington state SARS-COV-2 virus strain (original virus from 2020) or make it more dangerous,” BU said in a statement following online reports that the university called “false and inaccurate.”

    “In fact, this research made the virus replicate less dangerous,” the university added.

    This study provides important insights into omicron’s ability to cause disease, according to the researchers.

    “Consistent with studies published by others, this work shows that it is not the spike protein that drives Omicron pathogenicity, but instead other viral proteins,” said lead study author Mohsan Saeed.

    “Determination of those proteins will lead to better diagnostics and disease management strategies,” Saeed said."
     
    #14 fuzzy1, Oct 19, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2022
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  15. RRxing

    RRxing Senior Member

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    And this straddles that line...
    https://improbable.com/
     
  16. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Climate is simple, but not easy.
    More greenhouse gasses, more heat.
    Cut CO2 emissions (and other greenhouse gases) less heat overall.
    The effects of heat on weather patterns and events, that is far more complicated.

    The greenhouse effect has been known about for over 150 years.

    The US has been effecting world climate for many, many decades. Other countries are also doing this.
    It has been very simple, add more CO2 (and Methane) to our atmosphere than the earth absorbs.

    The exact timing of the consequences are very complicated to figure out, but the broad strokes are simple and devastating.
     
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  17. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Yes that's it! We are the region *not* under the glacier, so our land was pushed up and is now going back down slowly.

    @tochatihu you need to live in Virginia/Maryland to hear about this...
     
    #17 wjtracy, Oct 19, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2022
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  18. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Might be a probem: we may be out of fossil fuels by then, but maybe we could reverse the carbon sequestration that is about to happen as we start to pump CO2 underground soon?
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    CO2 sequestration by pumping underground is already happening. But there are few areas available for upscaling, unless it is to be done at much higher costs.
     
  20. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Some papers have suggested that absent AGW, we'd already be slowly sliding into the next Ice Age. But we have managed to halt that natural process cold. Or rather, Hot! Very seriously overshooting any current balance point.
    The last I heard, Peak Oil was long dead, the proven fossil fuel reserves were something like 3X to 4X the amount of carbon that many believe the atmosphere needs to be capped at. Though some carbon sequestration methods do quickly turn it into rock, in the form of calcium carbonate, making it less easy to re-release during a cold period.
    Has anyone estimated how much carbon the various flood basalts and basalt traps could sequester?

    Though the energy cost of extracting carbon from the atmosphere will always be high.