Featured More hybrids and less EVs to reduce emissions

Tesla, & Kia/Hyundai are selling 100's of thousands quarterly with no apparent downside from others Supply constraints. Would it be better to penalize those that prepared for the future - by adequately securing Supply chains? Or - let those who viciously and arrogantly fought the impending tsunami of plugins - all the while dragging their feet so they could eek every dollar out of old gas burning Tech.
This tactic isn't too dissimilar from when industry change was forced onto manufacturers regarding installing catalytic converters, airbags etc.
"it's too expensive"
blah blah blah
always with the victim mentality excuses
follow the money
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If there was truly a resource constraint, the best use of batteries to reduce emissions would be in mild hybrid diesels. That was the conclusion of research from several years ago. The limited resources it was presuming never came to pass. There is a lag in supply now, but it isn't a limit, and will be sorted out in time. The use of LFP in EVs is expanding. That chemistry doesn't use nickel or cobalt, which are the real limiting minerals. An EV using Na-ion may be on the road in China by the end of the year.

Toyota is hurting because they ignored the signs, didn't secure battery supplies for themselves while many others did.

Now hybrids can do a lot of good, but they simply don't sell in the US. They don't have an appeal to most people beyond reduced fuel costs. Many run the numbers are conclude the ICE model is a better deal. EVs have more appeal. Tesla had no trouble selling cars when they weren't eligible for federal incentives.

Why do people seem to forget the credit covers PHEVs? The federal tax credit has a minimum battery size of 7kWh. If Toyota had moved Prius production to the US as they once planned, the gen4 Prius Prime could have qualified for the $7500, $3000 to $3500 more than it got under the old law. The capacity limit may increase in a few years, but not enough to exclude the gen5 Prime. All those ICE 'bans' also allow PHEVs.

It wasn't EVs that prevented the expansion of hybrid options in the past 25 years.

 

the problem is, other than toyota, who has the capability to hybridize the whole fleet. much easier to leap the hybrid technical bridge and go straight to bev's.
you can call it greenwashing if they are only making compliance cars, but for those manufacturers actually committed, it's best for the environment to reduce fossil fuel use and increase renewables.
an example of greenwashing is the bz4x, or selling primes in carb states only

 

Consumers dont care about emissions. Maybe some of you do, but i for sure dont. What matters to majority of us is cheap fuel cost, spacious car, aesthetics, powerful engine, long range, convenience, and long lasting with little maintenance. Different people value them differently, but car manufacturers sell based off those factors.

Rav4 is toyotas best selling SUV because everyone wants a SUV that has space, good on fuel, and overall good car. The statistics speak for themselves and Toyota is wise to not waste money on EV bs that will hurt their reputation 5 years down the line like its already hurting Tesla and so many others that are full EV.

But yes, Hybrid seems to be the way to go for Toyota in having their cake and eating it too. They pretty much implemented it in all their models because theres more advantages than not. As for emissions, its probably better too since ICE is more energy efficient when traveling 60mph than converting mechanical to electricity and back to mechanical that EVs do.

 

May not be the best example. The Tesla Model Y has outsold the RAV4 (worldwide) in the first half of 2023.
The 25 Bestselling Cars, Trucks, and SUVs of 2023 (So Far)

 

i agree about what many consumers want. but if you look at the top ten best selling vehicles (excluding trucks) it doesn't play out. teslas, camrys and crv's do quite well. they can easily be pure ev someday.
government has to play a part as consumers and corporations will rarely do the right thing on their own.
toyota is making bold statements about bevs in the near furure, do you think they are being disingenuous?

 

Isn't Tesla Model 3 also outselling Camry now in some US markets? Like its biggest Market California?
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very possible, but does it matter? us/na/world depends on what you're trying to accomplish. pollution, fossil fuel reduction, climate change?
localities have incentives, states have incentives, feds have incentives

americas-top-10-bestselling-cars-of-2022-tesla-makes-the-cut.html

 

Toyota has like 10 different models of car that are all selling on equal levels. Tesla on the other hand does not. I think unfair to compare the two without combining all the brands models in total and then making the claim. I dont really consider california a representation of the entire country, and i fully believe it that the type of people that choose to live there are also the ones who drive up the EV market. They have more money than sense, and they're not that high on the money part.

But toyota is very correct about EVs. Will see as the narrative flips in a few years when EVs battery expire and people feel cheated. Toyota on the other hand will keep their rep of producing lasting cars that are reliable. Its good that they dont get bullied into making EVs. Just my 2 cents

 

You still haven't answered my question. How do you define 'mass adoption'?
As for your prediction above, care to elaborate?
Which EV batteries will be expiring? All non-Toyota batteries? Cylindrical? Pouch?
How long? Is a "few years" 3 years, or 30 years, or something in between?

 

Maybe more fair to compare Lexus to Tesla, for your purposes?

I look to Tesla to prove out some manufacturing technology and inspire the real wave of EV adoption, rather than to be it. (GM's Mary Barra is on record for suggesting that wave will hit around 2030) That said, I'm very impressed by the strength of their sales. Plenty of economists look to California to see where America is headed. It isn't completely accurate, but it rhymes. I've lived enough places (including California) to say there's something to it.

Managing battery lifecycles and expectations thereof will certainly be a big topic. Unfortunately lots of Americans are dumb enough to think Colgate has a conspiracy against them just because they ran out of toothpaste, so I bet there will be a steady stream of interesting takes on that topic.

 

What do you think should happen at this point for both Tesla and Toyota?

We have been through this too many times in the past to continue playing the cherry-pick game. Selectively sighting Corolla, Camry or RAV4 to compare against Model Y only serves to feed a narrative at this point.

Tesla is showing signs of weakness from new pressure. The effort to promote NACS was clearly a hail-mary attempt. It will take years to find out if it pays off. The "win" as a standard may not prove to be profitable. Same goes for the price increases, then dramatic decreases. There's big pressure growing to finally address the entry-level segment.

In other words, it's time to look at the whole picture. We see BYD as a black horse in the race, that Tesla already feels their lead slipping away. So what if Toyota isn't fast? Toyota is well prepared. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids provide a means of staying in the race.

Don't think the other automakers are just going to give up either. Cybertruck is about to face some serious pressure from Ford and GM, in what could become a niche. There's no guarantee the high-price, high-profit BEV segment will be large. Automakers could be scrambling to compete with low-price, razor-thin-profit vehicles.

 

The best solution will be mix of all possibilities and each person will do the labor of choosing for himself. Some people will get regular cars some will get hybrids some will get electric and some will get diesels. The free market will sort itself out. And sometimes we may look at someone driving a diesel pickup empty as a commuter car and shake our heads. But we have to allow him to do that because we have to respect his freedom to choose to waste his money. In the end one size never fits all and that's ok it doesn't have to. That's why I have several cars motorcycles mopeds scooters and bicycles. Taking the boat out tomorrow. Freedom is great. Allow others to choose too as we have, even if their choice is wrong

 

Id say when EVs compose 50% or more of vehicles driving on the road, making them the majority.
And all batteries expire. Lithium, NiMH, lead acid, etc. They all have a life cycle. Some faster than others. The difference is, its only 2kw you have to replace on the hybrid and even thats a lot of money for some people vs 200kw for a full EV which is the entire value of the car at that point.

I know with lithium its around 10 years usually. Or 4000 charging cycles. It really depends how well they are maintained in terms of exposure to overheating, or freezing temps and forced to charge. As well as if theyre left low all the time or kept full. NiMH on the other hand last long only if theyre left between 20% and 80%. But they suffer too from overheating while in use.

 

That is a very high bar. According to The Number of Cars in the US in 2022/2023: Market Share, Distribution, and Trends - Financesonline.com, no vehicle type crests 50% of vehicles on the road.
SUVs come closest at about 40%.

Since ‘adoption’ generally refers to the present, might I suggest a percentage of sales, rather than history of sales?
Or, we could turn the question upside down. What vehicles would you say have reached ‘mass adoption’?
It may be easier to approach the question from that direction.

 

Just yesterday on our long drive my wife (a super liberal) said she likes our hybrid as the future, is that OK?
I advised her that was a highly politically incorrect comment for U.S. liberals. Even plug-in hybrids are a crime against humanity. .

 

ICE vehicles have reached mass adoption. I am not talking specific brand or type of vehicle, im strictly talking between ICE and EVs. And if you want to bring hybrids into this and make them a seperate category, we can. Pretty much all car manufacturers have one or two full EV models, not just Tesla. Similar story to hybrids. But they are a very small percentage of what they make. When most car manufacturers make EVs compared to ICE or hybrids, then it would be considered mass adopted. And yes im talking about present, not history of sales. Do EVs make up 50% or more of cars being made in the year 2023? If not, then theyre not mass adopted because people dont want them or cant afford them so manufacturers wont make them. Simple as.

 

Toyota has admitted they are losing to Tesla on the manufacturing cost front, and is investing in those technologies to compete.

Plug ins have been out for over a decade now. An average reported failure rate for BEV batteries is 1.5%. That number is pulled up by the Leaf with poor cooling, and the first year of the Model S. It wasn't that long ago an ICE car going past 100k miles was seen as an exception.

The Model Y vs Rav4 comparison was brought up because Rav4 sales was cited as an example on why Toyota was right to forgo EVs. Since that comparison of a luxury priced EV to an ICE shows that the public is willing to buy EVs, shifting model to company comparison is moving the goal posts. That said, Tesla sold over 1.3 million cars last year, and numbers continue to increase. They were just 19 years old. How many cars did Toyota sell at 19? Were they selling outside of Japan then?

NACS wasn't a hail mary for Tesla. It was a win in that they can avoid the costs of converting to CCS, but what it really is is more proof of support by the public and other car companies for EVs. The Supercharger network is the largest and most reliable charging network in the US. It is a big selling point for Tesla. The others signing on is acknowledgement of what their customers want.

Tesla might never shift to massive quantity, entry level cars. Their sales volume right now shows that people are willing to pay for EVs, and that there will be a market for that entry level EV when someone does bring it to market.

Hybrids are part of the solution, but we needed the model selection of today a decade ago. PHEVs are also part of it, and I expect them, as range extender, to be a large part of the fleet.

The hate directed at them by some is misdirected. Their issue wasn't with the PHEV, but with the incentives for them. The incentives just focused on getting them on the road, with nothing on getting people the plug them in. Posters bought the PiP just for HOV access in California. The popular PHEVs in Europe weren't the best hybrids in terms of efficiency, so didn't happen to help with carbon emissions without being charged. It was the same situation as what happened in the US with E85 and flex fuel cars.