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Featured Model 3 VINs at ~10% of Reservations

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, May 13, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My understanding is Tesla Model 3 reservations exceed 400,000. Then I started following the VIN tracking of Model 3 production.

    Source: Tesla Model 3 VIN Registrations Blow Past 40,000

    Tesla registered an additional 3,661 Model 3 VINs with the NHTSA on Friday. Now, the highest recorded number jumps to 42,942. This is a whopping 8,000+ new registrations inside of one week’s time. For comparison, let’s not forget that it took the automaker from July to December of 2017 to register its first 8,000 Model 3 VINs.​

    Of course this could be Tesla having a little fun with the skeptics and VIN counters. But it does fit the "S curve" learning model: The learning curve

    [​IMG]
    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, May 13, 2018
    Last edited: May 13, 2018
  2. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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    The block of Canadian VIN are out of sequence.
     
    #2 JimN, May 13, 2018
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  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    bob we still are in the slow beginning, only its slower than we thought, but also started earlier than I thought it would. The steep progress really starts next month on production, and july in sales. There will then be a hiccup in January and feb, as the tax credit drops and they learn to make the less expensive standard pack. Normally down time would be next quarter, but they are taking it now, and I am betting they take some in january, with a blow out second half of this year.

    There were approximately 450,000 deposits at the last call. Many will cancel when the tax credit drops, but new orders will come into tesla.
     
    #3 austingreen, May 13, 2018
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I look for inflection or 'knee in the curve.' Seeing VIN numbers (a simple count) that approaches the 10% the reservation count got my attention. But there were two news items:
    • Contract labor scrub - it may work in a crop field, on the line making cars ... NO.
    • Planned down time - this means they are tweaking the line and that is good!
    Bob Wilson
     
    #4 bwilson4web, May 13, 2018
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i read the lead engineer is taking some time off.
     
    #5 bisco, May 13, 2018
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    That is what happens when the design is done. I've seen it before and it is not a pretty sight.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #6 bwilson4web, May 13, 2018
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thanks! i thought it was the production engineer.:oops:
     
    #7 bisco, May 13, 2018
  8. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    If only one guy knows what is going on around there then this company has no chance at all. I highly doubt that there aren't others that can step in for these various departures. I'm still very bullish on the company. It is my single largest stock position and I sleep well at night.
     
    #8 markabele, May 14, 2018
  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    #9 austingreen, May 17, 2018
  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    considering last weeks' statement from Musk;
    Musk: Orders Open Next Week for Dual Motor Model 3
    Yea, that would pretty much be a given.
    .
     
    #10 hill, May 17, 2018
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