Featured Japanese automakers warm up to EVs

sounds like they have as much intention of making an electric car as i have. i'll have my own out in 8 or 10 years as well.

 

"By then for the customer to buy petrol or EV it will be practically same cost"

That might actually happen in the next two years, if the consumer looks at operating costs.

 

but no one can predict this, next two years or next 20.

 

From the article

Sounds like they are still using power point slides from 2008 (yes, I've got the old toyota presentation ;-)).

Perhaps those analysts have not noticed that the lighter, faster, and roomier, less expensive tesla model 3 long range only is 2 miles short of the mirai's range (epa 310 versus 312). Given the same costs and today's technology, toyota could build a longer range mirai with batteries, than its fuel cell one. If toyota really produces a bev with solid state batteries, then charging will even be faster than the 170 miles in 30 minutes that the model 3 does, and the batteries will take up less room in the car.

Faster refueling? Nothing goes much faster than plugging in at home or work, versus find a hydrogen station. Faster on the road if someone pays for the infrastructure? Sure. But then, if that is important, toyota has the prime and honda the clarity phev. These are much faster to fuel than the mirai or fuel cell clarity. IIRC the prime actually has lower ghg emissions than the mirai in japan and california given the current hydrogen fueling infrastructure. Perhaps they just need bigger batteried, and better designed phevs. In May alone prime sold 7400 prius primes in Japan and the US, and would have sold more if they had made more. Toyota expects to lease about 5700 mirais between 2015 when it started until the end of this year. Mirai is by far the best selling fuel cell vehicle ever.

No wonder Japanese car companies are looking at plug-ins ;-)

 

Why would a Japanese car maker with significant sales in the home islands be focused on producing a car that requires an electricity infrastructure given the fairly recent local weather events, their impact on electricity generation, the pressure to phase out Nukes, the need to import gas and oil to power electricity production? Go green and solar and wind takes a while to install in quantity and are subject to weather (storm blocks solar and forces feathering of wind) plus storage for overnight EV charging.

 

hyperbole. keeps you relevant in the industry.

 

Although Japan funnels a lot of money to japanese auto makers, their profits mainly come from outside the home market. the largest car market in the world is china, and china is buying more plug-ins than any other country. The second biggest car market is the US, and this is the most profitable car market for japanese car companies. you guessed it, the US is the second biggest market for plug ins.

why coal and lng imported to japan instead of oil? Its less expensive per mile. Pretty simple stuff.
In the home market plug-ins are playing a bigger role also. It is much cheaper to generate electricity and run plug-ins versus use coal in australia to generate hydrogen then ship it to japan.

If your question is why bevs versus phevs for japan, well yes phevs sell much better in japan than bevs which sell much better than fuel cell vehicles. Fuel cell vehicles are subsidiesed by about $70,000/vehicle in japan if you include infrastructure subsidies, which explains why they are building thousands instead of hundreds.

 

There are over 7000 chademo chargers in japan. The japanese government plans to have 360 - 10,000 psi hydrogen stations in 2025. Is it any wonder why estimates are for many more bevs and phevs than fuel cell vehicles for at least these next 8 years. Slow charging makes it look better to have phevs, but leaf is older so there are many more bevs, but prime is selling very well.
Japanese Map – Chademo Association

 

Ah, if only there was the widespread infrastructure available for quick charging! For one reason or another, those that do get installed then cost as much as fossil fuels per mile to replenish your car at. For any driver in a rush, the 30+ minute it takes to reach 80% SOC is usually too long and counter-productive.