In our situation ... Buy Now or Wait?

Personally, I would wait a bit and see what happens with the '22 model... I figure we will probably hear something in the next 3 months or so? Just a guess. IMO, spring time is generally the worst season to buy a car IMO, since you are not getting the "new thing" since it has been on sale for 5+ months, you don't yet have the incentives when the next model is introduced, and in just a couple months your car will be "yesterday's news", despite likely still paying premium dollar.. And lastly, often lots of people are car shopping after hibernating all winter, which weakens your negotiating position.

Re gas shortage, I know there is talk of this as things open back up, but I am skeptical this will actually happen, and even more so that it will impact the Prime specifically (I don't think Prius are really that much in demand anymore, given the competition these days).

I don't believe there has been any specific news released yet about the 2022 models, but the regular Prius is likely due for a refresh, as Toyota has usually run on a 6-year cycle (Prius 2004-2009, 2010-2015, 2016-2021?). There was no 2016 Prime, it only started in 2017, so it is a bit unknown at this time whether it would be refreshed at the same time to bring it in sync with the standard Prius, or if they would keep it one more year.

Also, once the new model is announced, you will also be in a better position to negotiate on a '21 if you like, whether the '22 has significant changes or not.

Good luck.

 

Japanese web site says next gen Prius won't arrive until early 2023: Gen 5 Prius (possible in 2021) will we possibly see 60mpg? | Page 7 | PriusChat

 

What?? Possibly see 60 mpg?? I already get 80 mpg. LOL

OP, this is a no-brainer: The best time to by a Prius Prime is in December. You get almost the maximum rebate, the latest model, and immediately get the $4,502 tax credit.

For the redesign, it will be two more years in late 2023 (2024 model year) for the Prius Prime; so, don't hold your breath on that one.

 

I'm a pessimist... spending $30,000+ on an item that will devalue 25% or so the first year just doesn't compute for me.

if you're not concerned with depreciation, just buy when you want to. the rebates and credits lessen the blow.

 

More of a reason to buy now. 5000 in incentives. Plus 4500 tax rebate. You'll save the 25% in depreciation prettyuch instantly. Many folks who have bought the prime under these conditions in the past have sold them for more than they paid.

 

I'm thinkin

People who lease middle-shelf cars are usually either financially well off, or want to put up the appearance of being so....and you're talking about purchasing a more humbly priced car this time - so that's a plus.
Me?
I'd wait, but in your case it's a wobbler, since we're talking about two people with three cars.

Gas is going up, but then so is everything else.
Our economy is trying to digest three enormous foie gras cash meals, first thing in the morning.....and despite very mixed signaling from dot.gov, even germ phobes are running out of reasons to stay welded to their living room couches.

In other words...
We're about to experience a pretty big buying binge, travel binge, and entertainment binge, house building binge, and everything else binge following a year-long period of very significant supply disruptions.

BUT on the other hand, PPs are also going to be more expensive on the back side, and you may be able to get one before showrooms empty out and dealers start stopping to negotiate.
Just don't kid yourself into thinking that buying a new car is some kinda shrewd financial smooth move.
Cars do not appreciate.
They're not an investment.
For MOST people they are an expense that should be managed.
The rule of thumb for people (who want to retire comfortable, and on-time) is that things with motors in them should not be worth more than half of your annual salary, year over year.
Like I said...
In your case, it's a wobbler, but it's not like you're wanting to go out and buy a new boat, RV, or sports car.

If you're the type of person who buys a new car every two years whether you need it or not, and you have things like housing, retirement, college, etc already funded then....yeah.
Go forth and live your best post-Covid life.


GOOD LUCK!
let us know if you get and what you get.

 

If I were you, I would wait. Yeah, the current price of 2021 PP is attractive. Toyota just bumped the rebate in the NE region to $5500. I don't know if the current inventory will last until Oct and when the 2020 model will arrive. But I am almost sure, they will be offering similar savings. By buying it now, you will be paying for a car you don't really need for at least 5 months. I would think your saving on the purchase of 2021 PP now would be almost gone by then.

In fact, I am in a similar boat as you are. I sold my 2020 PP last year due to not needing a car working from home, but I will be needing a car if and when I go back to my daily commuting. I just don't know when that will be yet. I am going to wait as long as I can. If it happens when there is 2021 PP on the market, it will be on my short-list, but it may be replaced by 2022 model by then. However, I am seriously thinking of a BEV for my next commuter car, if and only if, the price is right.

 

A Prius generally starts to make sense when you are doing over 25k a year worth of driving even if gas hits 4 bucks a gallon it generally doesn't do so for very long and that's when the prices for prius is the highest.

The gas shortage isn't a real thing on anything other than the market side. Will there be a price spike around summer, absolutely, I'd expect to be paying more then just due to the microeconomic effects rather than the macro ones. Will there be a lot more people driving, sure, but there will also be a lot of people who aren't driving anymore due to the covid effect.

 

Priuses don't depreciate like that. When I traded in my 2018 Prius with 40,000 miles on it I was paid in cash more money than I paid for it after tax credits.

 

Prius makes sense at all miles driven per year. With available credits and incentives the price of the Prius Prime is less than a Corolla, and with the plugin aspect the total operating cost per mile is almost half.

 

You can always check it yourself at BuyaTyota.com. According to Toyota, the Greater NY region still has $5000 rebate ($4000 cash + $1000 bonus cash), now good till 6/1/2021.

 

One realistic thought to consider is...

With all unforseen part shortages among all auto manufacturers, how many Prime inventory will there be in 5 month?

Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.

 

OP - if you're set on the Prime, I'd buy now. The offers are not going to get much better than they are currently, especially with chip shortages possibly impacting things. The other great timing for you, is you could likely get out of the lease early due to the huge demand for used cars and their pricing spiking.
Now is the time, if you are set on buying. Between the rebates and tax credit, you'll have positive equity in the Prime also - so it doesn't make sense to wait. If you felt like you made the wrong choice - you can sell it and make money!

 

I can't speak for the factory to dealer rebate.
Quite frankly I'm surprised to see that they're still offering one for the PP, and it's probably only leftover inertia from the very slow sedan sales, and lackluster G4 sales mostly pre-COVID when gas was abnormally cheap.
Right now, the center of gravity for BEV/PHEVs is crossovers, and so it's entirely possible that PPs will stay competitively priced even THROUGH a gas price spike.

Like I said before....it's a wobbler.
If my crystal ball weren't suffering from myopia, Ida bought Bitcoin when people were using them to pay for pizza.

I'm thinking that even in flyover country, PPs make more sense than their wireless counterparts simply because of the tax kickbacks that you're getting from dot.gov.
In states that also kick over a little cheese, this mostly puts them in about the same price range as their down market cousins...BUT they will be worth more on the back side when you sell the car.

It's entirely possible - even PROBABLE that there will be a gas price spike this summer which will cause the 2021 PPs to become more scarce and perhaps a little more expensive, but there's not going to be a model change this year/next year and so I would expect that by Christmas they'll be on sale again.....and If I were not going to be "needing" a new car before then I'd probably kick back for a few and wait.
If you "HAVE TO HAVE" a certain color or trim level then I might lean towards putting out some feelers now, rather that trying to find that Sizzlin Cyan with Moonstone interior and piano-bar interior....when there's only a few hundred PPs left in the lower 48.

The GOOD news is that you're in Nebraska.
You can throw a wide net and hop on a plane, so you can avoid places where PPs are up-priced because gas is currently more than $2.40 a gallon.

Either way, it sounds like you're not going to be eating Ramen more than a couple of times a week because you bobbled the snap.
Unless of course....you LIKE Ramen a lot!

Sorry.
Not much of an answer for all that.

Usually I'm much more opinionated...
Good Luck!

 

There's a lot of moving parts and details to look at.

1. are you currently or going to be in violation of your Volvo lease; where extra charges or penalties will be applied; and can be avoided if your park it a month or two.
2. you need to drive the prime - batteries sitting idle for months at a time chips away at the long term battery life. Good news is there's a 10 year 150K mile warranty on the batteries.
3. Charging outlet 110 or 220; dependent of downtime of car and location of outlet. Will you need an electrician to rewire?
4. are we looking at another 'false start' economy? doubtful but it could happen if we don't make it to herd immunity. Most foreign countries will probably still have their borders closed. Raw materials shortages, how will that impact our restart and future Prime prices and inventory?

Just a few questions to get your Pro vs Con list started or added on to.

Another way of approaching this is to call your local rental car companies or Toyota dealerships and see if you can do a one month rental. This way you don't have to make a rash decision and make sure it fits your lifestyle. While there are slight differences between 2020 and 2021 model years; you'll get a real good feel, if it fits. The shallow trunk, did take a little getting used to and no spare tire. Haven't had a flat yet; but plan on a trip to the bone-yard for an old corolla tire & wheel. Will be carrying this on my long road trips.

I wasn't even looking at the Prime, when I went car shopping - original plan was to replace my Prius c with a Corolla hybrid, on my 10 year car replacement plan. When doing research, I stumbled upon the out-sized incentives and federal rebates. Standard hybrids no longer qualify for federal or state incentives. It was a no-brainier and win/win. The dealer and federal incentives would easily make-up the cost differential, and the additional MPG would drive down monthly operating cost even further. My utility company discounts electricity prices for owning a plug-ins. There are also incentives/discounts for installing a level 2 home charger; though I can't cost justify that - The numbers just don't pencil out....

Bottom Line; only you have a grasp of the entire picture - So only you and your wife can make an informed decision.

Good Luck