Hybrids wane, diesels gain as buyers weigh real-world mpg

Wane?

Over 150,000 Prius and over 50,000 Camry-Hybrid will be purchased here this year.

Whatever!

 

Do I understand you sold your Prius and don't have one any longer?

As for the reduction in customers 'considering' a Prius, it helps that a lot of the buying customers were able to get one this year. The drought of Prius is over although they have a fairly low backlog. I find it amusing that only one model is on the minds of HALF of all buyers. No other car comes close.

As for diesel, no doubt a hybrid diesel will show up soon enough and we'll all be happier.

Bob Wilson

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(HiLaker @ Jul 17 2007, 04:27 PM) [snapback]480441[/snapback]</div>

In the US we have a shortage of refining capacity period. Refining diesel should become more expensive over time as a larger percentage of crude oil is sour (more sulpher).

 

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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(HiLaker @ Jul 17 2007, 04:27 PM) [snapback]480441[/snapback]</div>

I'm so grateful that yet again, you have taken time to come down from the dizzying heights of wisdom and all-encompassing experience to explain to us that in our ignorance and foolishness, we have completely misunderstood everything and are in so much need of such knowledge and guidance you so magnanimously offer us.

It's clear that every one of us on this side of the Atlantic owe you a debt of gratitude for correcting our mis-perceptions. How lucky we truly are. Blessed, no less.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(catgic @ Jul 18 2007, 02:28 PM) [snapback]481224[/snapback]</div>

Separate from the eau de diesel, there is also the problem of particulate emissions. There is plenty of evidence regarding carcinogenic properties of diesel soot, that I am not going to re-hash the debate. Suffice it that California and a number of other states in the U.S. have effectively banned diesel cars until the particulate problem is resolved. Even with the latest generation of diesel engines from Mercedes and VW, they still are not able to meet the particulate emission standards for California (and the states that have adopted the California standards) - even with ultra low sulfur diesel fuel. I doubt that you will see a diesel-engined hybrid - especially since the vast majority of hybrid sales in the U.S. are in states that have adopted the California emission standard. Better chance for a direct injection turbo-charged ICE plus lithium ion battery technology than a diesel.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(apriusfan @ Jul 19 2007, 10:52 AM) [snapback]481699[/snapback]</div>

The Merc Bluetec is as good as any SULEV gas car. It is the definition how CA defines how the diesel must pass emissions that is in question. In CA, the car must have 15 years of maintenance free service and still sustain emissions standards. The only problem with the Bluetec system is that, it is like your windshield washer fluid, needs to be refueled. And CA will not allowed this, so we will not see it.

I would have love one if made by Honda. Too bad politians are so dumb to change their ways, just like Georgia's DMV claiming Prius failing emissions test.... :lol:

 

The problem with arguing that particulate pollution is the reason we haven't seen and won't see an increase in diesel powered cars is that almost every corner of the US has seen dire levels of pollutants from diesel trucks, black soot pouring from their exhausts, going almost entirely unchecked - perhaps because the 'transport lobby' claim that fixing these things would cripple the economy by leveraging prices for all goods and services dependent on shipping via road transportation.

In reality, with states largely in control of pollution regulation and the socio/economic bias towards the needs of commerce and industry and so little concerned with environment, the issue of particulates and potential carcinogens is simply not on the radar in the same way it has been in Europe for many, many years.

The problem with HiLaker's proposition is that it ignores the fact that diesel power for passenger vehicles has never been popular here as much (or more) because of the big three's manipulation of the market rather than anything else. Detroit had many reasons to push large, heavy, petrol-fired vehicles and created the marketing tools to ensure that's what the public thought it wanted.

That's why the premise that 'hybrids wane as diesels gain....' is off the mark in the reality of the north american marketplace. Our entire market is skewed towards petrol, and while we are now becoming more aware of fuel efficiency as a desirable goal, we're at least 30 years behind Europe with a market that until recently (not least due to the Prius) was heavily tilted against coherent design for better fuel economy.

It's somewhat like the market for safety. It's not long ago that one of the big three proudly claimed that 'no-one buys a car for safety', when refusing to incorporate safety features that would have increased the base cost of their cars by relatively small amounts. Gradually public perception has changed, firstly in Europe and latterly in the US, thanks in no small part to companies like Volvo and Saab. Even so, we still have these ludicrously erroneous notions commonly spread that 'bigger cars are safer', that 'SUVs are safer than saloon cars'.....

HiLaker is right in the general thrust that in Europe, the fuel consumption of a Toyota Prius is not hard to approach, equal or beat with a number of non-hybrids. My first ever car, bought in England in 1975 and which was 10 years old at that point in time, did a little better than 60 MPG. Fuel costs have kept pressure on car manufacturers selling into that market to produce increasingly fuel-efficient vehicles in order to maintain volume sales against a backdrop of widespread public transport networks and a culture less enmeshed in car ownership. In the absence of high-efficiency petrol engine designs capable of moving tin boxes at reasonable speed, even when loaded with people and luggage, there was little option but to develop better diesel engines, which due to the lower levels of taxation on fuel, meant that diesels gained a popularity they never could have in the US where socio-economic conditions have been fundamentally different.

The result is that while here, hybrid technology is in a very practical sense in the lead in terms of consumer adoption for fuel efficient cars, in Europe it's late to the game and lagging in both appeal and technology. It's a cultural thing, a market-driven thing and a matter of historical development, nothing more, nothing less. Where HiLaker goes off the rails is in drawing European conclusions to apply to the North American market, and biasing the argument around the perception that what works there would work just as well here if only the public weren't so stupid as to pretend otherwise.

 

I am skeptical about diesel being a real solution to anything. It takes more oil to produce a gallon of diesel than it does to produce a gallon of gasoline. So, is the increase in fuel economy of a diesel engine really an decrease in oil usage?? And, aren't CO2 emissions from per gallon of Diesel higher than that of gasoline? My gut tells me it is all about the same whether you use gas or diesel engines as far as oil consumption and global warming emmisions, and if there is a difference, it is probably fairly minimal. Hybrids though do bring a real increase in fuel economy, and probably work better with gasoline engines, which are easier to start and stop several times during a trip than a diesel engine (right?). I haven't seen anything about diesels other than that they are more 'efficient' per gallon of respectively refined dino product and are cleaner than before, which doesn't really translate to more efficient per gallon of raw dino product and cleaner than the alternatirve of gasoline engines. Anyone have more insight into this matter than me??

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dipper @ Jul 19 2007, 11:07 AM) [snapback]481706[/snapback]</div>

Well, yes and no. The Bluetec requires the use of a particulate trap to meet the California particulate emission standard. Yes, California requires that any auxiliary emission control technology (such as a trap) have a "free" (otherwise known as no cost to the owner) operating cost. Mercedes does not want to offer "free" maintenance, so no ability to sell the Bluetec diesel in California (or the other states that have adopted the California particulate standards, because the maintenance requirement is incorporated in the particulate emission standard).

My basic point about diesels not being sold in California and states adopting California's emissions standards remains, which is why I don't see a diesel-engined Prius anytime soon.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(ZA_Andy @ Jul 19 2007, 12:20 PM) [snapback]481741[/snapback]</div>

The prodigious amount of soot that has poured out of diesel-powered trucks over the years is precisely why diesel particulate emission standards have been adopted - even during a time when the regulatory charter of the U.S. EPA has been scaled back. If there was no reason (regulatory imperative) for refining ultra low sulfur diesel, it wouldn't be produced. Perhaps you could provide something in the way of substantiation for your claim?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(apriusfan @ Jul 21 2007, 03:55 PM) [snapback]482889[/snapback]</div>

It also requires urea, which must be resupplied from time to time. It's not maintenance free so it's a no go.

It takes more oil to make diesel, but it takes more energy to create petrol. I don't know the exact numbers but if you look at the number of steps to go from oil to petrol, it's more than to diesel. Also, I think there are hydrogen inputs as well (steam reformed NG).

I think that this is not much of a problem anymore. One drawback to a hybrid diesel is that the cost would be even less competitive vis-a-vis a standard petrol car. A diesel hybrid would probably get off the line quite quickly with all of that low end torque.

A series hybrid featuring a diesel genset would probably be a good combo, at least until full EVs are affordable.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(apriusfan @ Jul 21 2007, 06:11 PM) [snapback]482897[/snapback]</div>

What claim? I observe huge billowing clouds of crud from a significant number of quite apparently poorly maintained trucks in my area, and wonder why these are left to pollute with foul-smelling soot. Whatever regulatory controls may or may not exist appear quite ineffective in this regard.

 

Here are some numbers to consider. The first image is a comparison between a gas Jetta, a diesel Jetta and a Prius The second image is a comparison between a gas Mercedes SUV and its diesel counterpart.

Arrive at your own conclusions....

 

I guess I'll jump in here since I have both a Prius and a diesel.

First on emissions.

Particulates:
Particulates are no longer a factor. I REPEAT, PARTICULATES ARE NO LONGER A FACTOR. The particulate traps used on current European diesels and 2008 US diesels remove particulates from the equation. These diesels produce no more particulates that gasoline cars and actually less, because gasoline care produce a lot of very fine particulates that the EPA doesn't bother to measure. The reason diesel are delayed until 2008 in because ULSD is not yet commonly available in all areas. ULSD is necessary in order to to destroy the emission systems in diesels. This is not different than running leaded fuel in a gasoline car with a catalytic converter.

NOx:
NOx is the issue for diesel. It is inherent to the nature of diesel combustion to have high NOx emissions. In general the higher the compression ratio you run and the higher the combustion temperature, the more NOx will be created. This will be the challenge for diesel engine manufacturers going forward to 2010 and the next level of emission regulations for diesels.

Visible soot from diesels:
If you are referring to Semis, dump trucks, and other heavy duty diesel, this is because until very recently there was almost no regulation at all for particulates for this class. Recently their has been new EPA standards but the pre-buy by fleets was huge in order to not have to spend the money for the emission equipment and increased maintenance. The cleaner diesels were also in general less fuel efficient than the old diesels.

If you are referring to private cars and trucks than the soot should be very minimal and only visible at start-up and under full throttle acceleration and still be very minor. However, performance chips are very popular especially among owners of medium duty truck owners. For a couple hundred bucks you get a chip that will increase horsepower and torque about 20 to 30% and usually increase fuel economy as well. The chip does this by varying fuel injection timing and volume and turbo pressure. This effectively defeats the emissions controls to increase power and economy.

To clear some misconceptions:

You WILL see a diesel car in California in 2008. VW will be selling their new common rail 2.0 TDI in the Jetta sedan and wagon in all 50 states starting 2nd quarter of 2008. This engine down not use urea injection of NOx control. VW is claiming 40/60 mpg for the city/highway fuel economy on the new EPA standards. Those that have driven the car also claim a significant reduction in noise and vibration such that inside the vehicle you cannot tell the difference between the gasoline and diesel cars and absolutely no visible soot from the exhaust under any conditions.

You can start and stop a diesel. This has been incorporated into pretty much the entire line of BMW diesels and I'm sure diesels from other manufacturers as well. The days of diesels being hard to start ended when electric fuel injection replaced mechanical fuel injection back in the late 80's / early 90's. My TDI has started in all conditions, weather and temperatures from -5F to 100F.

People can go to FuelEconomy.gov all day a show the little charts. What I know from driving both vehicles is that my VW TDI has always without fail outperformed the EPA estimate, both on the old calculation and now even more on the new standard. My TDI is rated at 35/39/45 mpg. As you can see my average is about 45 mpg and that is just since I started keeping a log in January. This is mostly suburban / city driving. On the open highway driving a steady 75 mpg with the A/C on the TDI will return an easy 51 to 55 mpg. I have repeated that many times on trips from TN to MI to visit family.

My Prius has constantly underperformed the EPA estimated on the old calculation and now is just about spot on for the new calculation at 48/46/45 mpg. The Prius is used almost exclusively for suburban / city driving.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(HiLaker @ Jul 17 2007, 03:27 PM) [snapback]480441[/snapback]</div>

Interesting. At this page on leftlanenews, they have an additional paragraph:
<blockquote>The study did find that more and more consumers are putting diesel cars on their lists, however. In '06, just 12 percent of buyers were looking at diesels; now, nearly twice as many, 23 percent, have diesels on their shopping lists. Interestingly, the number of diesel cars on the new car market has dropped since then. The Volkswagen Jetta TDI, one of the biggest volume diesel cars in the U.S., didn't meet 2007 regulations. Volkswagen will be introducing a 50-state diesel car shortly. Jeep offered a diesel Liberty in '06; it didn't meet the '07 regulations, but a diesel Grand Cherokee with a Mercedes-Benz-developed engine was released in Spring '07.</blockquote>

So what both articles tried to overlook, is that despite a recent upswing in diesel interest and less of a downturn in hybrid interest, hybrid interest is still double that of diesels.

FYI: a gallon of diesel has 12% more BTU than a gallon of gasoline, so you would expect 12% more MPG. I think the diesel engine does add some efficiency so it's more like 25% more MPG typically, with different characteristics (less RPM and HP, more low-end torque). Also diesel engines have typically been used on large trucks which are often exempt from CAFE and pollution controls.

Honda is planning on introducing a 50-state diesel in 2009, but hasn't said on which models yet.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nerfer @ Jul 24 2007, 10:32 AM) [snapback]484140[/snapback]</div>

Yes, IN THE US, hybrids are more popular than diesels. I don't think many people will argue that. However, in the next 2 to 4 years with diesel cars and trucks announced from quite a few manufacturers, diesel demand will go up quite quickly. People in the US just don't know about modern diesel cars. Most people still have images of semis and 80's GM smoke pots when then think of diesels. I've had quite a few people ride in my TDI and not know that it was a diesel until the notice the 50 mpg sticker on the back window and challenge me if the car really can get that mileage. My car is a 2003 and used a engine from the mid 90's. The 2006/2007 diesel that I have driven in Europe are worlds better then my car and the next TDI is suppose to be even better. If you can get someone to drive a modern diesel it will be an easy sell.

Honda had announced plans for a diesel version of the Accord in 2009. This is the only vehicle that they have formally announced plans for. There have also been rumors of diesel options in the Ridgeline and Pilot and well as a possibility of a diesel Civic in 2010 or 2011.

 

To the diesel fan out there.... I have been down the path of a claimed 50 state diesel car before. Mercedes was telling their dealers in California that there would be diesel cars available starting with the 2007 model year. Now it seems that VW is making similar claims for the 2008 model year. When I can go into a showroom and see a diesel car with an emission certification tag that shows both U.S. Federal and California emissions compliance, I will believe the claims. Until then, it is all just so much noise. And I am not against diesel cars; my first car that I bought new was a 1978 Diesel Rabbit that I put north of 250,000 miles on before the engine overheated and cracked the block. It is just that emissions requirements have evolved and part of the idea is to reduce the carbon footprint of the cars I own.

 

hey i dont live where you live so i wont judge your decision AND if i had the choice of vehicles you have, i might have considered other vehicles as a possible 2nd vehicle. but i dont. so my only real option in my mind is to simply get another Prius.

dont get me wrong, i would love to get a compact high performance diesel that gets 70 mpg. but simply dont have em here.