Featured Grading CAFE

She (former EPA) said

• Elecetric cars are here to stay
• The 200,000 limit for Fed Credit should be increased
• Electric cars are a Global Leadership issue for US
• US cannot afford to give up Global Leadership of EV's

The was rebutted by the panel who said all the technology was coming from Korea (exception is Tesla).

In any case, this is what I keep trying to say that EV is not an eco justification for our government. It is a business strategy.

 

I thought the government was clear about the tax credit being about improving American competiviness when they wrote the law.

 

Note- above I am not saying that I necessarily agree with Margo Oge, I am just saying what I heard her say. She is former EPA and currently sits on a lot of green car committee's. I am just saying the mindset.

 

The proper rebuttal to this was that there was an US battery company with the technology, but the government was fine with letting it go to China during bankruptcy instead of another American company.

 

We are experiencing a repeat of the 1990 economic cycle again when low crude oil prices spawned the SUV era. So Congress has to decide if they are going to wait for the next high gaso price cycle, or somehow force the high MPG by 2025.

The way I look at it, the CAFE could be met if each family had one Prius and one SUV, instead of 2 SUV's. Read my lips: not gonna happen...Congress does not want to mandate Japan-made hybrids.

 

It's worth noting that the average new car (is that mean or median?) doesn't need to be affordable to the average household. A car that meets the household's needs needs to be affordable to the average household. You've got things like the Mitsubishi Mirage that are very cheap and reasonably efficient, after all. (Yes, it's a terrible car, but it is a counterpoint to the argument that efficiency must be expensive - you could do something just as efficient that's nicer for a couple grand more easily enough.)

As far as Japan-built hybrids... Ford sells power split hybrids, today, that are built in Michigan. They could easily do a Focus hybrid with the same powertrain, or even use a downsized or further detuned ICE (use the 1.6 liter Sigma motor, or further detune the 2.0 liter Duratec motor) in that application.

Similarly, GM has Michigan-built hybrids. Chrysler even has one now.

And, Toyota has the Camry Hybrid made in the US, too...

Really, some of CAFE can be met just by pushing people to buy what they need, not what they want, and constraining supply of trucks and SUVs.

 

A tax on petroleum or fuel could do wonders for car companies' ability to meet CAFE.

 

Oh, and let's also look at the hybrid premium - how much does it actually add to the car, for the Americans?

I'll look at it a few different ways - base model of the car, the cheapest hybrid model, and the equivalent trim level of the car to that cheapest hybrid model. These will all be mainstream vehicles, not premium/luxury vehicles, so I'll be looking at the Fusion and the Malibu. I'm also not looking at PHEVs, so that rules out the Pacifica (which is trying to be premium anyway).

2017 Ford Fusion, US market:
S: $22,120 (2.5 I4, 175 hp, 6-spd auto, 21/25/32 MPG, 36.276 CAFE MPG)
Hybrid S: $25,185 (2.0 I4, 188 hp, eCVT, 43/42/41 MPG, 61.194 CAFE MPG) (has dual zone climate that the S and SE don't have, has 17" wheels that the S doesn't have, missing LED headlights and spoiler that the S does have)

So, that's a $3065 upgrade for that car.

2016 Chevrolet Malibu:
L: $22,500 (1.5T I4, 163 hp, 6-spd auto, 27/31/37 MPG, 41.133 CAFE MPG)
1LT: $25,895 (same powertrain and MPG as L)
Hybrid: $28,645 (1.8 I4, 182 hp, 2-mode eCVT, 47/46/46, 61.457 CAFE MPG) (adds dual-zone climate to 1LT)

There, it's a $2750 upgrade from a comparable trim level, but $6145 from a base model. That's not terrible from the comparable trim level (and the L is a pretty dire trim anyway), but it's a rather expensive upgrade. Then again, some of that will be due to the complexity of the 2-mode gearbox...

Also, the reason for CAFE MPG being so similar between the hybrids, despite a large difference in window sticker MPG, is due to window sticker MPG being tested on the 5-cycle method, whereas CAFE MPG is tested on the old 1978 2-cycle method. (1985-2006 window stickers were rated on the 1978 method with a fixed downward skew (22% city, 11% highway, I believe), for what it's worth.)