GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA LARGEST IN HISTORY DEC 31,2013

Real Science..."Real" Science...Real "Science".

 

This is a duplicate thread!

Please combine the two, or work on one!

Icarus

 

I cannot access Goddard's wordpress, so I don't know if he uses NSIDC data. I mentioned that in the other thread.

Since 1979, antarctic average extent 11.3 million km^2, increasing by 2% per decade
Arctic average extent 13.1 million km^2, decreasing by 3.5% per decade
Combine N & S and get global net decrease.

But if we say it again, louder, to the opposite, confusion might set in. Perhaps that is the point, I really don't know.

 

How about this site

Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area

when I click on the highest spaghetti, it says 2007.

 

Since we seem to be playing in this thread:

"“Steven Goddard” is a pseudonym used by an anonymous climate denialist crank, so incredibly sloppy that he even embarrassed arch climate denier Anthony Watts, as shown in this link, and as I showed in one of last year’s “sea ice wrap-up” videos."

"What’s really refreshing and amusing is how “Goddard” was immediately taken to task by none other than Julienne Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center researcher whose iconic graph of accelerated sea ice loss I recently featured in a post. See here:

“Steve chose a graph that shows what he wants to portray while ignoring all the other institutions that show either a record low for 2011 or a “tie” with 2007. University of Bremen already announced it is a new record low. In my opinion, given the error margin of the measurement and algorithms, 2007 and 2011 basically tied in their extent this year. NSIDC will likely show 2011 as the second lowest, but again it’s within the error margin (which is about 50,000 sq-km).”

New Lows: Sea Ice and “Steven Goddard” credibility | Climate Denial Crock of the Week

New Lows: Sea Ice and “Steven Goddard” credibility | Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Next!

Icarus

 

Please elaborate. And please do it without telling me to STFU this time or anything about my BS poll.

As best I can tell, the title of your post and of the linked article contradict the numbers in the link to which it refers. Those numbers are graphed at: Global Sea Ice Area

According to the linked numbers, Global Sea Ice Area on December 31, 2013, 18.149 million km^2, wasn't the record for even that month, let alone all of 2013 or all recorded time. It was the lowest coverage of the whole month.

It was even less than the year-round average over the covered interval, as calculated from the numbers imported into my spreadsheet.

2013 Dec 31 (2013.9973) -- 18.149 million km^2
2013 Nov 2 (2013.8384) -- 22.556 million km^2
1988 Nov 6 (1988.8466) -- 23.413 million km^2
Year-round average (1979-2013) -- 18.907 million km^2

 

a couple of months moldy, but the "climate scientists" in the room seem to be at odds. Some claiming natural variation, others saying we don't know why its expanding but its expanding.

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday

Which IMHO simply means that its expanding That is the antartic, the artic is contracting. If you are of the political bent that you want to blog send $5 to a government agency to stop the ice from melting, you will ignore the antartic and only report the artic. If you are of the other political blog personality you will ignore the artic and only concentrate on the antartic.

Now me I don't really know what matters. Is it thickness? Is it area? Do you add it up every day, or do you take the peak artic and peak antartic on different days? Is it the number of penguins if the black feathers absorb the sunlight and warm the antartic. What ever it is, I gues if you put a bunch of climate scientists on a boat with tourists, they don't seem to have enough sense to respect the weather. If they had any respect for nature at all they would have turned back before they got stuck, instead of needed to be rescued by helicopter.

We can tell the earth is warming because of thermometers. We can tell the ice is expanding in the antartic by the satelite images. Here is the data
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/

 

the Antarctic ocean is definitely warming. Whether the periodic/seasonal sea ice is expanding in area I don't know. haven't seen any data. I do know that huge areas of old ice are calving off and reducing the total amount of water trapped in the Antarctic.

 

Some people don't understand the difference between ice area and ice mass. They also don't understand the difference between continental ice (antarctic) becoming part of the sea. Antarctica is essentially one large glacier, with multiple rivers of ice flowing into the sea. The ice is always moving down hill, from the weight of the ice higher up. (the south polar plateau is ~9000' above sea level) eventually, all this ice returns to the sea (over many millenia). The question then becomes, has human influenced climate change, changed the historical rate of this ice flow? How does that rate of flow, effect the surrounding sea ice. (remember, the Antarctic is, to coin a phrase, the polar opposite of the Arctic. That is to say, it is a continent surrounded by sea) Intuitively, it would seem if you increase the rate that continental ice is advancing to the sea, it might only be reasonable to assume that fact might well have an effect on the surrounding sea ice.

Ice is pretty complicated stuff!

Icarus

 

I have no idea what the columns are or what it means.

 

^It is gibberish, just like his (goddard's) whole shtick.

Icarus

 

That is because Mojo and Goddard don't want you to look at the real chart with labels:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

 

Thanks Mojo, I am glad that the site you linked is using at least some version of NSIDC data. I think we could all take to heart the message that global sea ice patterns are different (remain different) than the recent precipitous decline in the arctic.

I think it matters because sea-ice area is a big deal for global albedo, and for the ability of the water (and critters) underneath to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Even in Antarctic summer it is pretty darn cold there, and from what I have read, surface winds matter a lot for ice sheet dynamics. I have never read anything authoritative on the idea that Antarctic grounded ice melt (from the continent) could increase the formation of floating ice. It simply occurred to me, and if anyone has read about that (one way or the other) I'd be interested.

 

^According to whom?

Icarus

 

Even now, that is not how I parse your thread title, and Goddard's headline.

 

Ok, but this is about a 1 day record, wouldn't albedo also be averaged by the amount of radiation on that ice, so a weighted average for the year? Or at least a winter average in the antartc, and a summer average in the artic (as we don't get upset about more mild winters, its more about the hotter summers). Given all the uncertainty about clouds, deforestation, and urban heat islands on albedo, I would not think ice would be the largest area for uncertainty.

I'm ceratinly no expert, but it seems from the articles I have read most of the experts are confused by the antartic patterns in the satelite era, and we don't have much good data earlier.