Experts: Petroleum May Be Nearing a Peak

ah yes Hubbert's Peak. for someone who was ridiculed in his day, his all his predictions have been spot on.

we are not headed for a crisis... we are already in a crisis...unfortunately, too few of us realize this.

 

And then there's some that are in denial. They complain about how small Prius is, never imagining how anyone could fit comfortably inside.

It's as if the 80's never happened. Prius is large & comfortable compared to what was available then. Prius is dramatically safer, as well as cleaner and more efficient too.

Remember the recent past, where many thought permanent gas prices around $2.00 per gallon would be absolutely horrible. They'd panic when the price went up 20 cents, pushing it all the way to $1.59 per gallon. Some Prius owners even fought me about using $1.65 as a baseline price for the "Selling Points" document. They said using a value so high would harm our credibility. Boy was that ever wrong! Now some are simply biting the bullet and filling up their tanks anyway, not changing their driving habits either.

Those are interesting observations. Unfortunately, that's it. I don't have any good suggestions to go with, other than just keep telling people about your Prius.

 

Yup, I've heard this in another forum. They are also re-examining what the actual source is for oil, and are currently questioning the belief that it is from dead dinosaurs. Also I watched a documentary on Discovery Channel a while back, that discussed the building of offshore oil rigs. It was mentioned then, that we are only extracting about 20% of the known quantity of the oil fields being utilized, with current technology. If an emerging technology comes about that allows the oil companies to extract that other 80%, then the current models of when oil is supposed to run out, will all have to be thrown out the window.

 

Hmmm. I thought oil came from partially decomposed oceanic plankton. Hence oil's regular association with salt domes.

 

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ya know John what you say is tragically funny. many people voice unnecessary concerns (granted they are mostly media people who seem to have other agendas controlling their opinions) about the Prius. electrical shocks, cost of traction battery replacement, inaccurate fuel gauges, not meeting the EPA, the list is nearly endless... but all the issues really dont amount to a hill of beans.

i remember when you were getting flack from your high gas price estimates...that was LESS than a year ago. my how things have changed. i remember seeing news reports about businesses like delivery services and taxi's going out of business or suffering massive layoffs due to the increased cost of doing business.

it all points to a fact that we have had it waay too good for waay too long. its obvious that we can sacrifice much much more. but most people would rather continue to put it off in hopes that some miracle solution will pop up as it has so many times in the past.

well, this problem is a bit different. its simply too pervasive in our lives to solve quickly. when showing my car at the Alternative Fuel Fair in Lacey earlier this month, one thing i got from the people who werent PriusNuts like us was

oh i know we have a problem, but someone will figure out what to do when the time comes

or

the oil companies have already figured out another source of energy but they want to maximize their oil investments first

well all i got to say is, they got the 2nd part of that statement right

 

I'm going to have to do some digging later for the articles that I've referred to. It was interesting to read. The reality is though, that we simply don't know exacty where the oil comes from, and how much is left.

 

This may be a little late but one of my favorite websites is
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

That website is one of many reason why I bought a Prius

 

Oil prices could easily go to $100 a barrel -- or $30 or lower! There is no exact way to predict this. The only certainty is that future oil prices will NOT be what most people forecast today. There is reason for this. When everyone says it will be high it then justifies more investment to find oil and implement newer technologies to pump more out of existing wells. When this happens supply starts to rise above demand and prices drop. When people see very cheap oil (as we did a few years ago at $13 a barrel) they stop investing and supply drops and then prices rise.

I have heard much about China and how that will cause prices to be high forever. BUT I just heard on the radio today that China will be building 10-12 nuclear power plants to produce electricity thus reducings its total demand for fossil fuels.

The simple answer is it will be what it will be and you nor I can accurately predict it.

 

building 10 to 12 when needs required 500...doesnt even qualify as a dropin the bucket

 

The trending price of oil is totally predicatable. The fact that supplies are limited and demand is rising triggers price increases.

A particular car needs to be end of lifed before it stops consuming gasoline, which is, on the average, 17 years after it is built.

Predicting which way the price is going is very easy. Measure consumption rate increases today, measure supply capacity today, factor in the average age of the fleet (all cars in the USA) and now you know for how long prices will rise.

Even if no new drivers were added to the population (guess what? We know who is about to turn 16 in this country!) and no new cars were added, it would still take almost a decade to reduce consumption because of the fleet age.

Those oil deposits that are too expensive to draw from? That "expense" is measured in energy, not dollars. So that means it takes a gallon of gas to pump a gallon of crude out of the ground. What does that net you? Nothing! There is no price point (dollarwise) that makes it worth pumping.

The price of oil is very predictable. It's going to continue to trend upward, in peaks and valleys, until it is gone.

Nate

 

Sorry people, When was the last time you saw energy <ANY kind of energy> prices drop and STAY there? Electricity is up 250% from 5 years ago, Gas is up 125% since 5 years ago, Diesel is up 150% from 5 years ago, Coal is up 136% from 5 years ago. California pays currently in excess of 2.65 a gallon for unleaded. The party is over and you can look forward to 5$ a gallon by the end of the decade.
Do everything you can to reduce your energy consumption. Buy condensing 95 % furnaces and 15 seer ac units, use compact florescent bulbs, refit to tankless hot water heaters, and drive a Prius. If we all did these things we may put the timeline off a couple of years but we, as a nation, don't.
Look on your highway when you drive... Do you see more SUVs then hybrids? Do we have more or less reliance on imported oil? When China and other heavily populated underdeveloped countries requiring oil come on line in the next 20 years, that will only squeeze an already finite supply of oil.
We have an OIL man in the white house that makes money every time oil prices climb, and a Mandate to fight terrorists in oil producing countries. Do you REALLY think oil will hit 30 dollars a barrel again? NO chance!
-Paul R. Haller-

 

Oil aka Gasoline is dirty cheap. The price of gasoline has dropped (although not steadily) over the last 40 years. Around 1965 gasoline sold for about 30 cents a gallon, factor in inflation and it is much cheaper today than it was then. In 1981 gasoline was more expensive by quite a bit than it is today on an inflation adjusted basis. I remember thinking the world would end in 1981 when I had to pay close to $1.60 for gasoline -- but the price dropped. Do you remember about 4 years ago when in the summer here in NJ you could get gas for $0.83 a gallon -- that was when crude was down around $13 a barrel.

These things cycle based on supply and demand and on perceptions. When everyone believes that prices will continue in only one direction they generally end up going the opposite direction - that is the way most commodities work. The majority opinion on most topics is usually proven wrong over a period of a few years.

 

I hope you're right, kirbinster, I really do. Of course, the U.S. ought to be moving out of the 19th century and lead the world in to the 21st. Wouldn't it be better to concentrate on getting ourselves away from fossil fuels and show countries such as China what they should be shooting for? Whether there is limitless oil in the ground or not, it's time to move on and prove that burning fossil fuel is something that third world countries do and, more importantly, that the U.S. isn't one of them.

 

It just amazes me that people think that oil will continue ad nauseum...until such a time that the USA and Canada and all developing countries realize you cannot continue to drive your vehicles like race cars and expect good mileage. Peoples driving habits, if they would just modify, you could gain a bit more time with oil; however, i dont think driving habits will change...the rich dont care how high oil goes...they can afford it, the poor will be riding bikes, and the middle class will cease anyway. Another item which just makes me wonder ,is comparing gas prices to 1970s -80s and adjusting it for inflation...if you are going to do that...then you must adjust your income for inflation with the same % parameters...given everything ,if you say gas is inflation adjusted and cheaper than the 70s, then my paycheck should be adjusted in the same manner, and if that is the case, id be making 100s of thousands...yea right...just my 25 cents worth(of course adjusted for inflation)....

 

wb9tyj - sorry to hear your paycheck has not kept up with inflation. I know mine and my wifes and anyone in a union has had theirs increased based on inflation.

You are right that oil will some day run out, but so will water and land and everything else on the planet. That is a long long time away. Everything is finite, and to panic and try to totally replace our entire infastructure in a few years is shear madness.

 

i aint gonna worry about the price of gas until its more expensive than water... bought the Prius so i wouldnt have to

 

The scope of change required to arrest climate change is way beyond what most of us are willing or able to do with present technology. I think many more Americans than we realize, are aware of this at a subconscious "herd" level but, not knowing how to deal with the problem, pretend there is no problem.

Driving a Prius helps, but sometimes it feels like the environmental equivalent of trying to empty the ocean with a bucket.