Featured Emission Study; EV's Beat ICE, Cradle to Grave

Assuming this is one's concern when buying a vehicle...add to that take note Ford, GM, Chrysler, ect., and even...wait for it...Toyota.

 

The problem is battery life, IMO. The rest of the vehicle should have a much longer life than an ICE car.

Mike

 

Two key take away I see from the chart, and backing information.

The sales weighted plug-in mix in 2014 got 102 mpge. The mix in 2015 has probably been about the same, but the cars for 2016 will likely be better with improved mpge on volt and tesla.

Using 102 mpge, all of the best 7 states in terms of plug-in sales volume are now all lower in ghg than a 50 mpg gasoline car, these states had over 78% of sales in 2014 according to doe.

On top of these Washington is ghg equivalent of a 94 mpg gasoline car, and california at 87 mpg.

At the bottom are Georgia and florida at ghg equivalent of a 51 mpg gasoline car. Georgia has been beat up for selling a lot of leafs with high ghg. A leaf in georgia gets the equivalent ghg of 56 mpg. With the clean power plan both of these states will reduce ghg/kwh a great deal by 2030.

I think now that we have 2012 grid data, and 2014 sales data available, I think we need to put to bed that plug-ins are going to be a lot dirtier ghg wise than hybrids or fcv.

 

These numbers are fine. At the 15k miles a year average, a car will be 10 years old when it hits 150k miles. That mileage seems to be what the car companies are using when they speak of life time for their products. 'Life-time' isn't the point at which the wheels fall off, but more where the depreciated value of the car bottoms off. It also may factor in the costs of upcoming repairs in relation to the car's value.

 

Here is a cool article. I hope it is accurate.
Ignore the haters: electric cars really are greener - Vox

 

The report from UCS is concise but I noticed one issue. In one section, Volt was called an EV. In the others, it was a plugin hybrid.

Volt's EV consumption was used to average all EV efficiency. The sales were weighted as if an EV with Volt's EV efficiency was sold. It is not the case since Volt also has a gas engine.

The report did highlighted this:

The Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid, which can travel about 35 miles on electricity before having to switch to the gasoline engine, has slightly higher global warming emissions compared with the battery-electric LEAF and “i” when operating in electric mode, given the Volt’s lower efficiency (0.36 kWh/mile). When the gasoline engine takes over, it delivers a fuel economy rating of 37 mpg. Te actual ratio of a Volt driver’s all-electric versus gasoline driving will change the vehicle’s overall global warming emissions.

In Table 4.2, the Volt’s overall global warming emissions estimates are based on the assumption that 64 percent of its miles traveled are on electricity alone. This percentage derives from the split between electric-powered and gasoline-powered miles expected from a plug-in hybrid with a 35-mile all electric range, as determined by the Society of Automotive Engineers’ analysis of gasoline-vehicle driving data. Volt owners who are able to drive 64 percent of their miles on electricity alone can expect to have global warming emissions equivalent to a gasoline vehicle of about 60 mpg (in the cleanest-electricity region).

In the region with the highest electricity-based global warming emissions, the LEAF, “i,” and Volt achieve emissions levels similar to gasoline vehicles, with fuel economy ratings ranging from about 33 to 38 mpg.​

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By looking at below, one can conclude that 55% of the 'EV' buyers don't deserve the $7,500 tax credit, as 50 MPG Prius gets zero incentive.

And, how many of the 45% that are in the "Best" category are Volts? Remember, Volt would get in the 45% because only the EV miles were looked at. If both electricity and gas are counted, Volt emit more than the 50 MPG Prius. The overall percentage should be lower.

 

Of course that is your opinion based on exclusively considering CO2 emissions, right?
What about inner city air quality, diversity of fuels, domestic vs foreign fuel, etc etc.?

Although the gas-only Prius mpg can (and will) improve a bit in the next few years, there is a distinct benefit, IMO, in establishing a diverse and robust EV market because the grid can and will (IMO) get much cleaner than it is today. In 5, 10 or 20 years I don't expect gas only cars to improve more than 10-20% fleet wide for the same class/size of car. Solar, wind, and nuclear can far exceed that if we just have the will to do so.

Mike

 

The data you showed there is old.
Perhaps you would like to read the updated paper using 2012 data rather than 2009 data?

To sum up, in 2012 66% of the population lives in areas where the GHG emissions from the grid is lower than the GHG emissions from a Prius.
And in all areas of the country, EVs are cleaner than the average gas car.

 

That is a good point to work over. Replacing a battery can be much more like replacing spark plugs than replacing an engine. Tesla (thinking ahead) made it a five minute operation. Other car makers may wake up to this big EV advantage. Once the battery life issue is "solved" with quick battery replacement, what then limits the life of an EV?

(On ICE based vehicles, and even future FCVs, there are a lot of big items driving the car into the scrap heap.)

 

What page is Table 4.2 on, I can't find it?

Thanks.

 

CO2 is the greenhouse gas that causes global issue. So, it doesn't matter where CO2 is produced. I think you were referring to smog related emissions.

Diversity of fuel and domestic vs foreign matters for national energy security and keeping money in the country.

Equally, refueling time and driving range matters as well.

In those regards, FCV has a combination of the best of both gas and EV features.

That site was updated to link to the latest report. The old report that was linked is here. The table is on page 33.

 

Rust and wear.

Or more accurately, environment degradation and material fatigue. Aluminum and carbon fiber solve the actual rust problem, but they aren't immune to the passage of time or regular flexing. The synthetic rubber bushings, washers, and spacers used to isolate moving solid to solid contact, and frame components will fail long before them though. Depending on where those bits of rubber are, the labor cost can climb to replace them.

While a BEV with an easy to replace battery might have a drive train that can last forever, it will be those worn out body or suspension parts, or something the AC, that are simply too expensive to repair for the car's worth. We might also see end of service dates for the airbags if people keep their BEVs on the road for longer.

And honestly, ICE cars are pretty close to that already. A poster's husband here transferred a single GM engine through three truck bodies before it finally died. The BEV just needs less input from the owner for maintaining it. But with the will and the cash they all can last a long time.

 

At first glance, the points seem valid, but I have reason to go another level deeper. Look how long aircraft last. Both passenger and military planes are subject to far more environmental extremes and have lifetimes of 30+ years. I'm not seeing any rust or environmental degradation on the 2001 Prius. I am seeing higher oil consumption and a lot of engine item replacements (spark plugs, filters, etc.) The Tesla Model S and other models are probably going to be Aluminum based. So while there is a finite lifetime to anything (and san maintenance, much shorter lifetimes), an EV has a big advantage having far fewer moving parts and bearing surfaces.

 

That is true in the drive train about less rubbing areas, but not in the suspension and body. Then EV also has many of the same auxiliary systems as an ICE type car that don't impact functioning of the it, but are important to the driver.

They could conceivably last as long as a plane, but the investment required for most new airplanes makes ongoing maintenance and repairs more worthwhile to the owner to do. The level at which something must be fixed on a car is lower, but the owner can still run into forced repairs because of regulations. The HHR I used to have failed the Pa safety inspection because of a noise from the front suspension. It was the stabilizer bar bushing. It was still doing its job; the bar wasn't rattling around in it. It just squeaked. If I let the shop that did the inspection fix it, it would have cost over $500.

So while I think a BEV will last longer the a car with an ICE(or hydrogen fuel cell), I think most sent to the boneyard will be because of issues surrounding the drive train itself. People that buy them new will mostly trade in around the same time as they would with any other car. Regardless of running condition, the cars will still start looking old. Which means they could have longer lives on the secondary market.

 

The jet engines on planes are routinely removed, replaced, overhauled and put back into service long before 30 years.

Mike



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News Flash. Your car has always going to be on the road for 10+ years...just maybe it wasn't your car any longer. The average age of cars on the road today is 11+ years...so for every new car there is one that is 22 years old.

Mike

 

Agree. However, the electric motors for a great many actuations on an aircraft do last the life of the aircraft. So if I consider the jet engines to be ICE representative and the Motors to be EV representative, my viewpoint is clearer. It is also worth pointing out the aircraft (like the Tesla) is designed for the high wear parts to be easily replaced to allow the vast majority of the vehicle to last a very long time.



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Every single point you bring up has a valid aspect. Yet EVs could be game changers in this market. The resale value before reaching the boneyard might be quite different than the usual ICE car economics. What started my thinking in this area was "What are the pros and cons of buying a used Tesla?" 99% of the thinking kept returning to the battery....even though the battery is quite replaceable. The cost of 5 minutes of labor should be minimal so only the cost of the future battery should matter. So I thought about the point where the rest of the car is not worth considering. But what is that point? That is the present discussion topic I'm thinking about.

(PS. It seems that really rare old and ugly cars become more valuable with age. Maybe my 2001 Prius is a gold mine....wait....maybe not.)

 

Used leaf and volt are probably not worth battery replacent.

The higher end vehicles likely have more valuable glider and seating. The head unit, electronics, and battery probably want to be replaced. Brakes, suspension, seats, etc, will last a long time.

I think i8 is going to be like 911s, where we will see them 50 years from now and they will still look good.