Commuter car Dilemma - trying to do the math - a bit long

I don't think you'll save any money getting the Prius. You are better off driving the Lexus.

On a monthly commute, you will be using 53 gallons of gas on the Lexus and about 17 gallons with a Prius. The difference x $3.50 for gas is about $125 per month. $1500 a year in savings.

The Prius and the Lexus combined will depreciate more than $1500 a year. You still have maintenance expenses for 2 cars, repairs for 2 cars, insurance, registration....the list goes on.

I don't see the savings.....if anything it'll just give you another car to drive and expense to cover, but you won't see any savings.

I also want to add at 130k miles, there can be some surprises that can surprise you. Toyota lists the Prius with a 180,000 mile expected life. But that does not mean it will be a trouble free 180k miles.

 

Welcome to PC.
In the UK fuel is getting close to $10 a UK gallon so savings are much bigger here.
You will likely find if you buy a Prius it will get used for more than the commuting run and save even more on fuel. Servicing is also minimal on the Prius, but frequent oil checks are a must even if the oil does not appear to be used, and tyres should be specific low rolling resistance tyres to get the best MPG. The difference between non LRR tyre and LRR tyres will pay for the tyres.
Not knowing the level of depreciation in the US makes this one difficult for me to answer in the UK , but from prices I have seen the Prius holds it's price well particularly if fuel costs go up.
Putting you location in your avatar will enable us to give more advise.

John (Britprius)

 

I find the depreciation in a Prius is about $1000 every 10,000 miles you put on the car. It's a very rough estimate but it's not far off. But there's many costs besides the depreciation to calculate. After 200k miles, I don't think there's much beyond the salvage value....won't depreciate anymore beyond $3000

 

For a rough guide at what a 2006 depreciation will look like in 2 years, look at 2004 versus 2006 prices now with the same equipment. In 2 years it will be a 10 year old car. The curve from 10+ years could go anywhere depending on what condition the car was kept in and gas prices. Resale values jump and fall with gas prices in general.

In my case I was able to make the justification work because of getting rid of a vehicle with a similar expected depreciation curve.

Best of luck with your choice.

 

It has been said that you should not buy a Prius if your justification is to save gas. You buy a Prius because that is what you want and it will fill your need for transportation needs. The fuel savings is really just the icing on the cake.

If I were in the market for a used Prius today, it would be one that at least is a CPO (certified pre owned) no more than three years old and no more than 50,000 miles on the odometer.

 

Why not sell the minivan and get a Prius? Seems like it would be the car without a purpose if a Prius replaced the Lexus as a commuter. Truck would still be for truck things, company car would still be your commuter, Prius would be her commuter, Lexus and minivan would both cover the kid hauling duties, with the Lexus having the bonus of 4WD for the winter trips. That makes the minivan a redundant vehicle, unless there is some reason you would prefer it to the Lexus for kid hauling. The Lexus probably gets a little worse mileage, but you would also save on insurance, registration, maintenance, plus whatever you get from selling it.

 

What he said

 

Playing with numbers on KBB is probably about the best you can do for depreciation estimates.

I would consider that the Lexus will depreciate less if you are not putting an extra 10k miles per year on it. For example, the KBB private party value for a 2008 GX470 with 117k miles is $1300 higher than the same vehicle with 127k miles. So $1300 per year is probably a reasonable estimate of the annual depreciation savings from not commuting in the Lexus. Using the Prius values of a 2005 with 140k miles and a 2006 with 130k miles it looks like $1000 depreciation is a good estimate for 1 yr and 10k miles. So it seems like depreciation should be a wash, to several hundred dollars per year savings.

Your maintenance and repair budget should also (hopefully) go down by putting the miles on the Prius rather than the SUV. I've also known people who have been able to put a car that's not being driven on a special insurance plan that was almost nothing, but allowed you to turn full coverage on and off with a phone call over the course of the year. Not sure if all insurance companies do that, I think the plans are usually targeted toward seasonal resident, families with college students etc, but may work here too for seasonal usage.

Good luck,
Rob

 

If you sold the Lexus and Sienna, you could use that money for a more suitable AWD Sienna. Hopefully have enough money left over for the Prius *bonus*. That way the Prius would make sense being you replaced 2 cars with 2 cars......a wash. Then you'll have a gas saver Prius to travel around, a minivan for the kids, a company car, and a truck for Home Depot. What an ideal situation.

 

Just my 2-cents. Right now you are not thinking critically about the problem. You need to step back and give it all a good hard look, otherwise just stay with the status quo.

In my opinion buying an older Prius for the gas savings is perhaps the worst thing that you can do. In a few years the car will not be worth much and the depreciation, cost of running it and any repairs are likely to far outstrip any fuel savings.

Right now it seems that you have 3 cars that are unsuited for what you really need. First off the old pickup is a bit of a red herring - unless you use it allot I'd say get rid of it and just pay the $20 for 90 minutes for the rental Home Depot truck. Even if you do this a couple of times a month you will come out ahead. This might clear the mind-block that you have to have a specific car for a specific task.

As for the minivan and the SUV - right now you seem to want it all which is your right. If that is the case just use the Lexus for the commute and leave it at that. If you are dead set on lowering the fuel bill for your commute you will likely need to make a tough decision. In your justification of each car you have a lot of wants, but no real gotta haves. The minivan is nice for the kids, but not a necessity. The suv is nice to go to the mountains, but unless there is a lot of off-road it is not necessary - to put it into perspective, we are in Colorado and head into the Rockies to ski most weekends in a fwd suv with good snow tires. If you are worried, there is nothing on road that a set of studded snows will not cover.

So, honestly either keep what you have or get rid of either the van or the Lexus and buy a commuter car. Perhaps you should open up your thinking - if you decide that you can not live without awd something like a Subaru would get you way better mileage than the Lexus for commuting. If you are worried about room, get a roof box - the Thule ones are fairly expensive, but are extra easy to put on and pull off.

 

I think you are being wise now. One thing I would seriously consider in your situation is the truck. It is a lot cheaper to rent one if you need it then to own one strictly for that use. We used to have two vehicles, but I was working then. In 2007 I was forced to quit working. The truck set for almost five years, except for a trip here and there to Home Depot. During that time I paid for full coverage, maintenance, plus damage due to thieves. I would have been better off selling it long before I did and could have put all that out going money in the bank rather then sending it to others. I sold the truck last year and so far really haven't missed it nor needed it either.

Best of luck to you.

 

The low value truck is not an issue, unless insurance cost significant.
Lexus SUV is the key saving potential. Sell it at good price while gas price still low (will go up quick in my view and never look back). Rent a SUV for mountain trips.

But if you really want to keep it and use as commute car (200 mi/week not too bad), try to glide in N gear at around 40mph, if the route condition allow. I have a 98 LS400, with mpg 25/18. When my wife use N gear on local, short drive (10 mi), she still get 22-23 mpg. On local highway at 40-50mph, I can get 30mpg easily, max 38mpg. Remember, it is a V8 4.0L.

Having a Prius is like getting a half off gas coupon for nothing. If I can have only one car, that's the one for sure. After 4 years, 100K, my 04 Prius has completely paid off by gas savings, and now I have a free Prius starting to "make money" for me.

 

If the goal is to reduce operating costs then a Leaf should handle her 20 mile trips and cost less to maintain.

 

I would have to agree on the Leaf also for his wife's commute. Even if it was just a lease, those are great for commuting around town as long as you have a plug to charge it and another vehicle for those long trips where there are not charging stations available and or time to charge the Leaf.

I am seriously considering going to a EV when the Prius departs from our family. So far the Leaf is on the top of the list. Hopefully by the time when we do change, there will be better and more choices of EV out there. I can't afford a Tesla. I could but the savings would be gone after that... I don't think the wife will let me do that one.

Maybe if I win the lottery