CleanTechnica: two articles of interest

As long as gas is cheap nothing will change.

 

Yeah, the high-profit margins on pickup trucks and SUVs and low maintenance on electric cars (loss of service revenue) will drive dealer motivations. In a meantime, the current administration is not helping the EV shift. So, shortsighted. Sigh.
US saw the largest increase in CO2 emissions in almost a decade

 

Around here, dealers don't even try to sell the Prime. With tax credits ($5000 in Colorado) a Prime is far cheaper than a standard Prius. But go to the dealer and they won't even tell you how the tax credits work. For "liability" they say to talk to a tax professional.

One problem with going all in on the prime is it's too expensive without tax credits. The Prius is already an expensive vehicle, and the larger battery makes the prime more expensive. Tax credits help for now, but they aren't as good in every state, and they might not always be there depending on politics.

Finally, we want SUVs. Why are there almost no plug in hybrid SUVs on the market? There's the Outlander PHEV, or the Pacifica hybrid, which no one wants because it's a minivan from Chrysler. The Crosstrek hybrid is interesting but not widely available yet, and a little too expensive and still a little too small.

 

there are already threads hereabout it's funny how advocates can never understand the other side of the issue.
97% of the population does not want electric cars. they make it sound like it is the other way around

 

I think a majority of people wouldn't care if their car was electric, as long as it works without thinking about it. They'd probably appreciate the instant torque, quietness at a stop, savings on fuel, and reduced maintenance cost. It just has to be easy enough to charge to use it without thinking about it. And probably the biggest deal breaker is that it can't cost significantly more than a normal car.

 

I don't know the validity of their assessments, but according to CR "About 20 percent of Americans say they're likely to buy an electric car in the future, a new AAA survey shows"
More Americans Want Electric Cars | AAA Survey - Consumer Reports

Edit: I found another article. According to CarGurus 34% of Americans Expect to Buy an Electric Vehicle in Next 10 Years | CleanTechnica

 

that's when toyota will start making them

 

When people accept the autonomous vehicle concept, electric will be accepted by default.

 

true. we have to move beyond the 'rednecks throwing rocks at them' stage.

 

CleanTechnica (and the users who post there) is a thinly veiled Tesla fan community, where Musk is the Messiah and everyone must follow his lead, or be doomed. Their users vigorously downvote *any* criticism of Tesla. What they fail to realize is just how big the incoming wave of competition will be. It doesn't matter that Tesla is first to market (how many have been first to market and eventually die?). Even by this aggressive estimate of 25% electric share by 2025 (https://www.electrive.com/2018/12/13/all-electric-car-market-share-on-the-rise-worldwide), that still leaves 75% ICE in 6 years, combined with VAG (VW, Porsche, Audi), BMW, MB, Ford, Hyundai, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, and many others (and eventually Toyota Toyota, Panasonic announce battery venture to expand EV push | Reuters) flooding the markets with plug-ins and BEV's within the next 2-5 years, while still having ICE alternatives.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not wishing or hoping that Tesla fails - the more choices, the better for consumers. Just that CleanTechnica and their users honestly feel that Tesla will succeed and everyone else is "legacy" and will fail. But the reality is actually the reverse. Everyone else's hammer is in the motion of swinging down, and I hope Tesla can survive it. Their first true test will come from VAG's pincer attack: Porsche/Audi at the high end with the Taycan/eTron, and VW at the low end with the ID line. One source says up to 50 different electrified models in 3 years. 50 - from VAG alone. Followed on the high end by new electric and plug-ins from Mercedes and BMW, while the mid to low end will be 16 new Ford plug-ins/bev's in only the next 2 years, Nissan/Mitsubishi revised plug-in/electric lineup consisting of the all-new Outlander and Rogue (Nissan says 7 new electrified models in 3 years), and in 2-3 years time, the full weight of Toyota's just announced partnership with Panasonic. And I haven't even mentioned the Koreans (Hyundai/Kia with their obviously closer ties to LG Chem/Samsung SDI/SK).

"Everyone else is doomed" says the Tesla fanboys. Uh-huh.

 

​

Osborne Effect alone could have such a huge impact, likely turning the already highly competitive market into a mess. Besides that stall of current sales and potential for long delivery waits later, excitement could stir ill-informed purchases. That risk of reputation from customers not really understanding what they buy can have serious negative consequences. That's where the doom comes into play. It's actually a reflection of their own support failing.

Think about how risk is perceived. A majority of posts you'll encounter identify range as the measure of progress. They see it as only a factor of kWh capacity. It's sad that miles/kWh is disregarded as important. And that's an factor of EV travel too. It makes discussion of other risk nearly impossible to address. Think about the risk Toyota has taken by not making safety an upgrade package option; instead, they made it standard even on their lowest priced models.

Doing more research into the electrification business, you discover battery chemistries & implementation vary dramatically. Those fundamental choices of approach will have a major impact to outcome. It's an exactly complicated collection of things to learn about. That's why moving ahead cautiously will limited market rollouts isn't such a bad idea. Some people will spin a narrative and spread FUD, but they are the ones who will face eating crow later.

I battled Volt enthusiasts for years, expressing concern about the business choices GM was making. They mocked, belittled, and offended as much as possible to shut me up. Now, there's a long record of my observations confirming the terrible path GM decided to take. That type of vindication isn't rewarding though. It's really a trail of disappointment about so much opportunity being missed. That's why I'm thankful about Toyota's comprehensive exploration of choices and the wisdom to not rush to market.

Waiting is painful. That's why I suggest a deep exploration into the business of electrification. It requires quite a bit of self-educating, doing lots of searching & reading. But if really is a rewarding way to fill the time. You will then be able to shrug off the exclamations of doom and understand the answer why.
​

 

GM's mistake was marketing relatively expensive plug-in and BEV vehicles with cut-rate interiors to the low end market through Chevy. At the end of the day, the Volt and Bolt are still $33k-40k small vehicles, where the similar sized Chevy Cruze could be had for 16k-20k, about half the cost. There's a reason why almost everyone including Tesla is entering the BEV market through the high-end - battery costs are too expensive at this point compared to the relatively low-cost ICE.

 

i doubt anyone at clean technica would be happy with an $80,000. toyota bev

 

Probably not, and they'll probably sweep this under the rug: https://nypost.com/2019/01/22/tesla-jacks-up-recharging-prices-for-electric-cars

 

that means things are looking good for tesla. get rid of the free loaders

 

I think it's the opposite. In 3-4 years, if still around, Tesla will be very different

 

We agree on that, my old EV used about 150wt/hr per mile at reasonable city speeds without regeneration.

That is why I keep it around along with my Honda Insight,
if the laws in my area continue to become more regressive I may be forced to put it and the Honda on the road full time again and I’m looking patiently at the Honda Insight PHEV efforts, 80mpg and 15 miles EV @ 160wt/hrs per mile highway is nothing to sneeze at.

Also explains why I drive conservatively as shown

 

with every automaker in the world ignoring ev's except for lip service and compliance cars, tesla will be so far ahead, they won't be able to catch up

 

Catch up to what ?