Featured California plan: 80% EVs by 2035, 50-mile plug-in hybrids, tighter tailpipe emissions

Yeah, I saw that. I'm going to try to submit to CARB a good argument for PHEV as opposed to large battery packs in BEVs. I find it wasteful to mine the materials for over a thousand pounds of batteries in a car just in case the owner wants to make an occasional cross country trip. I also see it as wasteful to promote long distance commutes in crowded areas like Silicon Valley.

While it's also wasteful to include an ICE in a car that's used infrequently, It can be argued that the iron and aluminum that make up the majority of that device are 1) plentiful and 2) easily and readily recycled. You can't say that about any of the current Lithium battery designs.

It's been documented that the biggest drawback for PHEV is the 'lazy' factor. The same impulse that pushes some BEV owners to only charge once a week at a supercharger station also results in some PHEV owners neglecting to charge since they can always fall back on the gas motor. I suspect that a there are ways to structure the electrical fees and taxes such that people who use the PHEV in its cleanest mode will be properly rewarded, and those who only use it like a hybrid are not.

As for long commutes... California geography and economics are the reason that people work in crowded cities where jobs pay over $100K but houses cost over $1,000,000 for a modest neighborhood. So they live 30 or more miles away in areas where the housing is cheaper.

But the year of Covid has shown us that MANY of the high tech workers can easily telecommute. They've done it for the last year.

 

I figured this would result in the extension of increasing ZEVs in a car company's sales mix.

 

Minnesota officially become a "clean car" state (following CARB rules) yesterday.

 

That appears to be what it is designed to do. It will be interesting to see what happens with the PHEV segment. It will allow 20%, but not sure if that only applies to sales in Calif or country wide. I wonder if we will see a market for zero mile used PHEV models that are no longer allowed to be sold as new, sort of like the market (in the 70s) for muscle cars that did not meet CARB standards but were available in Oregon.

 

It would apply only to states which elect to follow Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), regulations still in the planning stage. So this doesn't even apply to California itself yet. That means each of the current 12 states, plus the new entrant of Minnesota, will need to go through another approval process... complete with their own fight against the oil industry, dealerships, and Republicans. It's a long & ugly process.

Complicating matters is the lack of understanding and the constant flood of PHEV misinformation. It's bad enough having to deal with propaganda efforts, like that recent study which was blatant attempt to undermine. We also have the problem still of early-adopters who don't really know how the technology actually works. A prime example (pun intended) is Volt. Still to this day, some believe it was a plug-in series hybrid. Marketing rhetoric was so effective, some never came to realize how different it actually was from an actual plug-in series hybrid, like BMW i3.

It all started with a campaign to set GM's design apart from Toyota's by misrepresenting what the US06 drive-cycle for measuring efficiency actually told us. It was brutal. That was the "big lie" of its time. There were a few Volt enthusiasts who peppered green websites to stir false assumptions by twisting data from that source... the same drive-cycle that has been proposed for ACC II regulations. You would be surprised how easy it is to feed a narrative. Always insist upon detail when a vague claim is made.

Looking at the expectations, we can see a phased approach based loosely upon projections of dropping battery costs: $100 per kWh in 2026, $81 in 2030, and $63 in 2035. Targets are being aimed at 26% in 2026 for combined BEV & PHEV sales and 76% in 2031. Those combined minimums shift to a PHEV maximum in 2035, capping those sales to 20%.

It's an interesting reminder of a long ago past, back when CARB started to push mandates. Anyone remember phase-1 of the original effort? It had quite a bit of pushback following agreement to abide by what the plan had established. The initial ZEV regulation in 1990 was a mandate for the major auto companies to produce and sell electric or fuel cell vehicles in California starting in the 1998 model year, ramping up sales of pure ZEVs to 10 percent of total vehicle sales in the state by 2003.

 

thank goodness only a miniscule number of PC members will attempt to turn this legislation into a Chevy Volt blame-fest. whereas most understand that such rules fly in the face of what Toyota would rather do. change much much much more slowly - be able to wring every last ¢ from prior ICE development advances. It does not bode well for that side of the gasser plugin philosophy. That said - most phev drivers (including yers truly) really like their rides .... whether they get few or lots of ev miles out of 'em. choices - good.

 

The plan sounds more aspirational than practical. If they actually implement it, then they will keep more old gasoline only cars on the road longer raising pollution.

I do like the idea that a phev needs to complete US06 in pure ev mode to qualify. I can definitely see people doing fine with smaller batteried phevs that go less than 50 miles aer. A 25 mile phev like the prime if the battery could stay off in US06 seems fine, and definitely the 42 mile aer rav4 prime should qualify. I'd say maybe sub 50 mile phevs that can do US06 in ev mode at 20% is a good goal. Those 50+ mile range ones probably don't pollute much and may be preferred for getting out of California ;-)

I don't see much harm in 10% of vehicles being ice only especially if the driver is only going short distances.

 

Is the 50 mile range window sticker or CAFE?

The Prius Prime and other PHEVs of similar ranges do have the engine fire up at some point of the test.

 

I was assuming epa but really have no idea.

EPA says 0.0 gallons of gas but yes I think it does kick in on the US06 test today. They should be easily able to do the test without turning the engine on by 2035 ;-)

 

The problem with defining a particular range minimum for a PHEV is not everyone's needs are the same. Take me. I live within 2 miles of almost everywhere I shop. I'm 11 miles from the office. I'm 22 miles from my farthest in-city family member. This leads to 99% EV miles on my Prime when I'm not on a vacation.

A friend of mine had a 110 mile each-way commute.

Again, not everyone's needs are the same.

 

There it is. Reason for bringing up the past was to address this very situation. Even though we already have the detail (it does *NOT* kick in) and that has been repeatedly discussed, someone inevitably stirs an uncertainty anyway. That was the "big lie" and it very well could be again. History repeats.

When the pedal is pressed for hard acceleration, the engine will not start. The system is designed to allow pedal-to-the-floor operation all the way up to 135 km/h (84 mph). That speed is in excess of US06 testing cycle criteria. So, there is no doubt. We can confirm it is available today, in 2021.

 

In 2017-2018, my first model year 2017 Prime, was 'sensitive' to turning on the ICE below 50 F. Careful driving minimized but did not eliminate the risk of turning on the ICE. It is a good thing if the more recent Prime closed or reduced these weaknesses.

I have no way to retest today's Prius Prime to check the unexpected ICE operation. It is getting too warm and in SouthEast Toyota Region, Prius Primes are not easily found for test drives.

Bob Wilson

 

Car companies are free to make PHEVs with shorter ranges. They just won't qualify for ZEV credits. Assuming the credit will work as in currently does, a company earning 100% ZEV credits can still sell some non-ZEV cars as the credits earned by each ZEV car is greater than one.

The EPA doesn't label PHEVs with 0.0 gallon gas use on a whim. At some point, the lab Toyota uses for EPA testing got the Prius Prime to fire up the engine on one of the test cycles.

 

My son commutes to work 35 miles each way in a prime and has averaged 94 MPG. SET region bought used Bob. So you can find 'em.

 

You can find them, but usually they need to be ordered, and they don't have the dealer or Toyota incentives seen in other regions.