Featured BMW Comes Out With Huge Batteries

I've heard they demolished the previous scroll-type building, just after VW got caught.

 

I heard that building was designed by VW, & it emits tons of pollution, once it rolls off the dyno.

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Toyota, please wake up and take notice. 1 million BEV's by 2030 ain't gonna save your company.

 

Toyota is sure, paying attention to what's going on!

 

Agree....hybrids will still give more profit than BEVs, and they aim to build 5.5million.

 

Maybe right now they do. The # of parts needed to do hybrids is huge - expensive and complicated in the long run. I'm sure they must know by now that the number of parts to make a car are about 10,000 less in a BEV than in an ICE/Hybrid. GM has recently decided to dump the Volt (in a few years) and massively grow their BEV's. Smart and timely. Toyota seems to think ICE engines will still be 5+ million of their current 11 million cars and trucks even in 2030, even if that means hybrids ("electrification" they call it). The world will have moved on by then to mostly BEV's, I'd think, and spurred on by China's lead to do that by 2022 for all passenger transportation. Toyota's future road map seems to be off the mark by a half decade. I honestly believe they'll get caught with their pants down if they do what their press releases indicate.

 

The future is electrification, but it will come progressively, and 2030 is too soon for that. Can you name a US State that has been voting for banning ICEs before 2030?

 

Calm my friends about predicting the dawn of electrification. I remember the optimism of 2005 when fuel efficient hybrids showed up only to see the Prius peak sales September 2013 and a slow decline. Even today, hybrids are just over 2%, plug-in hybrids ~0,6%, and BEV ~0.6%.

When Tesla production reaches 5000 units per week, ~0.7%, as a straight add, it would bring the BEV up to ~1.5% of all vehicle sales. But so many Teslas will also cannibalize other sales and we know many are those who already have efficient cars.

Bob Wilson

 

Even as today, diesel cars still make up for half the european sales, which shows how fast things go...

 

you kidding? As long as there are renewables to burn, & pistons to exploded down the cylinders' path, there will be a lobby ready & anxious to ensure its financial perpetuity.

But fear not! The plugins' increase in numbers has been faster than the growth of hybrids - so there is hope!
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A BMW i3-REx owner raises his hand.

Bob Wilson

 

.... and you meant that in a good way -

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IMHO 2018 for plug-ins will be like 2005 for hybrids. Companies will not be able to make enough. Yes plug-in market share in the US is only 1.1% of the light vehicle market for the first 11 months of the year (its more if you count december 2016-november 2017) and hybrids (not including phevs) are at 2.1%. In 2015 plug-ins had a 0.66% market share, hybrids 2.2% - making the 2016 and later plug-in growth entirely from non-electrified cars. When we get to the end of 2018, we can see if its irrational expectations of plug-ins. Right now in the US and China they are going to early adopters, but 2018 the early majority may start buying.

The talk is of 5000/week of model 3 production. That is approximately 250,000/year for the model 3. The model S and X will do 100,000 this year, with slightly less than 50,000 going to US customers. In the last 12 months plugins have sold 199 thousand units in the US. Lets say tesla makes 250,000 cars next year with 50% going to the us, that would be an increase of about 75 thousand bevs. With 400,000 model 3 reservation holders there would be a lot of people not recieving cars but waiting until 2019 or switching to something else. Likely the bolt and leaf will increase sales in 2018, as will the prime (with more availability) and clarity phev (its new) taking away sales from perhaps the volt, fusion energi, etc. That probably puts plug-in market share at 1.6%. My guess is at least 75-150K additive sales next year, with lower tax credits for gm and tesla plug-ins in 2019. Tesla will still probably grow sales in the US in 2019 if they ship less than 175,000 vehicles to us customers in 2018. I would expect there would be some back tracing in 2020, but much higher sales in 2022 - at least 3% of the US market and 6% of the larger Chinese market. By 2022 battery pack costs should be less than $140/kwh, meaning a 10kwh phev with a 25% margin on the pack would add only $1900 to sales price. This makes hybrid SUVs and Trucks look bad compared to phevs, as battery torque becomes less expensive to add than engine torque. If 2025 cafe standards remain in place, the least expensive way to meet them is to sell a larger proportion of the fleet with a plug.

 

I appreciate the optimistic forecast and agree we have to look beyond the USA borders, especially now. Just I was trying to caution, to 'manage user expectations'. We've heard this optimistic tune before and I hope a year from now to be wrong. Just the numbers don't yet add up for the USA.

Bob Wilson

 

One week ago, I'm out doing a "cart run" at the store. I had just walked by one BMW i3 parked and two Teslas. Not unusual to see a Leaf or two at the same time. And Prii all about - constantly. I pass a Bolt that just pulled in, talk to the owner, started a conversation about her car, my Prime (the first she's seen), her other car (a Volt) and she invited me to sit in the driver's seat, start it up and perhaps drive it around the lot. Our customers are very trusting of us when they see the logo on our jackets I guess. I thanked her for the invite since I was working. Just then, another Bolt pulls in and parks two spots over. We both just looked at that situation and nodded. I had never seen a Bolt before that. She had never seen another one besides her own.

It is happening.