Are hybrid sales running out of gas?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(steve10b @ Apr 14 2006, 07:57 AM) [snapback]239686[/snapback]</div>

Seems like this article predicts the opposite of many other articles being headlined in priuschat today (ie, 57 percent in a gallop pole said they would consider buying a hybrid to replace their existing car).

I think the noted slowdown in sales is due to gas prices dipping a bit and the up front hybrid higher price than their non-hybrid counterparts. But that is short term thinking. In the long run gas prices will be going up and hybrid prices coming down and there will be a greater demand for high gas mileage cars.

I do think the auto industry or the EPA needs to fix the problem of the overstated estimated MPG since it is disappointing to some hybrid owners that never get close the stated EPA MPG. The overstatement of the EPA numbers pertains to most cars but my guess is that new hybrid owners pay more attention to gas mileage than non-hybrid owners and since they paid more for their car they expect to meet those EPA numbers.

 

I think the hybrid market is much larger than people realize, it just hasn't been hit yet.

I would run out and buy a 'fun to drive' hybrid in a heartbeat. Give me a Jetta with something like IMA, give me 40mpg, and I'd jump on it. I'd willingly lose a few MPG for the 'fun' factor.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(TonyPSchaefer @ Apr 14 2006, 08:37 AM) [snapback]239702[/snapback]</div>

Even farther than that, I read where someone said that you'd get a Prius to make a statement and a Honda hybrid in order to "fit in" (ie not draw attention to yourself). The article implies this as well.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(steve10b @ Apr 14 2006, 07:57 AM) [snapback]239686[/snapback]</div>

I guess this article is not so bad, but it seems to me to have the same sensationalism flaw that most of these kinds of articles have. The headlines read like a doomsday prediction, then when you look at the article, the message is clear: the real serious hybrids are doing just fine, thank you very much, it's the cars that basically look just like more expensive versions of the same car, (with only slightly better gas mileage) that aren't doing so well.

I think it's tragically ironic, that the MpG perception works this way, because if you actually do the math, it turns out that the savings in gas from moving from 20 MPG to 21 MPG is much greater than moving from 60 to 61. (In terms of how much gas you spend to go a fixed distance). Or, even if you think in terms of percent increase. Going from 10 mpg to 11 mpg (10% increase in MpG) you save about .9 gallons to go 100 miles. Going from 50 to 55 mpg (still 10% increase) you end up saving only .18 gallons to go 100 miles!

Don't get me wrong, I think getting 60 mpg is awesome, but in terms of savings, the people who would benefit the most from improved efficiency are the ones who start with the lowest efficiency.

Anyway, back to the article, it starts to read like a doomsday prediction, but when you look at it, it sounds like Honda was expecting too much too soon. And the Nissan guy, well, he should take all the credit he can, now, because when hybrid tech gets going, he very well could be left in the dust, wondering why he didn't get in gear sooner.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(TonyPSchaefer @ Apr 14 2006, 12:03 PM) [snapback]239813[/snapback]</div>

yeah, well if you're trying to decide between increasing from 10 to 60 vs. increasing 10 to 11, yeah, you'd have to be pretty brain dead not to be able to figure that one out. But, if I had to choose between improving a 10mpg vehicle vs a 60mpg, I'd do the 10mpg one first. BUT, really the implication of this is that the *first* cars we should get rid of are Hummers!

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jonnycat26 @ Apr 14 2006, 12:06 PM) [snapback]239722[/snapback]</div>

I am about as mainstream as you can get (drove my last MG about 25 years ago, now its Subarus and Hondas). I put a deposit on a Camry hybrid two months ago and can't wait to take delivery, I hope next month. I knew that gas prices would start to spike as soon as Spring came, and I am also worried about spot shortages. I am not alone, on my little street two neighbors just bought a Prius.

I have to believe that there are lots of us out there. The Accord hybrid is not selling well because it doesn't appeal to the average hybrid buyer who wants a family-hauler with the best possible fuel economy and would enjoy fewer visits to the gas pump.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(TonyPSchaefer @ Apr 14 2006, 02:09 PM) [snapback]239859[/snapback]</div>

it was kinda funny (not in a haha way) reading that thread and seeing some of the resistance to the "improve the worst guzzler first" math, because, I'm guessing, they associated that math with the bad guys in Detroit trying to excuse gas guzzling. I think a couple of posters suggested the math was not valid because it was 'too abstract' or didn't really apply when you take into account the real world.

But the math doesn't lie. If, in the real world, you had cars at every level of efficiency, and you had to pick one class to improve, and you could only improve cars in that class by a fixed percentage, it's undebatable that you should fix the lowest MPG class first.

That's not to say that it's the optimal situation. Clearly the optimal would be for everybody to move to the most fuel efficient vehicle available for their actual needs. BUT, we don't have the ability to make this happen because we (i.e. the efficiency advocates) aren't the only ones making the decisions. There are people who want to buy Hummers and monster trucks, and all kinds of annoying vehicles, and we can't stop them. (sure, legislation, but those people have a say in legislation, too, as well as the automakers).

So given that we're not going to all of a sudden all start driving Priuses, it seems to me like a good thing to put hybrid tech in some of the lower efficiency vehicles. What's ironic to me is that the while the effect (on MPG) of hybridizing a guzzler may not seem to be as dramatic as hybridizing an efficient car, because of the funky math the actual impact in savings will be much greater for the hybrid.

If I was going to make predictions, I'd guess that the hybridized versions of the midsized sedans won't take off in sales until the added cost comes down a bit, but the hybridized versions of big vehicles like trucks and suvs will really take off, because at those low MPGs, people will really see some big savings, and recoup the premium costs much quicker.

So that's my prediction, but I don't like it, because it would mean more big trucks and monster vehicles

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Andyshap @ Apr 14 2006, 05:29 PM) [snapback]239874[/snapback]</div>

I bought my Prius for FE as well.. but I reiterate, I'd jump on a fun hybrid in a second, and for me it'd be something I want to drive as opposed to something I feel I have to drive.

 

IMHO, a hybrid Durango (hemi-engine) is not gonna sell. It will STILL cost an arm and a leg to fuel, whereas a 'standard' hybrid sedan that does the same thing will be the lower cost.

More people do NOT tow things with their over-sized 'trucks' than those that do. In fact, I can count on one hand the # of times I've seen an SUV towing something. Why would they still want to pay for that thru the nose...

Well, the mentality will be the hardest to change. The fact that the consumer thinks they need a bigger, badder vehicle is so caveman-like. And what hits the pocketbook most often (gas fill-ups) should curtail those wasteful ways.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(finman @ Apr 14 2006, 03:22 PM) [snapback]239894[/snapback]</div>

Maybe it won't sell, but there are people who actually need a truck, and will appreciate good FE, and also appreciate some extra torque, and if the added cost isn't too much, would go for it. It depends on the price of gas, the more it goes up, the quicker a hybrid pays for itself. If people are convinced that a hybrid truck will pay for itself in a few years, I predict they'll buy them in droves.

 

Fun factor? You want fun factor? Here's fun factor: today I loaded
up the Pri with 500 pounds of lighting gear, cable, and sandbags.
Hauled it about 20 miles and dropped it off at a town hall, and then
headed off toward home in height-of-rush-hour traffic. Playing the
"average speed" traffic-waves game most of the way around 128 was
awesome; said average was a little under 40 mph which is where a
prius really shines. I'm consistently floored by how many people
just don't get it about stop-n-go traffic management, but maybe if
I'm out there setting a good example and being quite calm about it
they'll see that it's not about the car you drive, it's how you
control it. The Prius just makes that a whole lot nicer because
you don't sit there idling and you probably get much finer control
over accel/decel when you're out there mixing it up with the
yupsters in their Acuras and the knuckle-dragging construction
guys for whom traffic is simply between them and their beer.
.
But maybe I'm deluding myself, because as I opened up a nice long
gap in preparation for merging across one of the many onramp/offramp
clusterfux that the area is famous for, somewhere off to my right
I heard "SCRICH! ka-bunk-a-thump!" from the bumper-to-bumper lineup
that was being the usual clueless about getting on. Yup, someone
had just caused a minor pileup over there. Me? I had *nobody* in
front of me other than a couple of folks who popped off the front
of that same line and crossed over, with plenty of room to do so
because I was nowhere near them, and I merrily tooled off into the
cloverleaf and onto a somewhat less-hosed piece of highway for the
rest of the ride home.
.
Arrived home showing 68.something average in the MFD since my fillup
earlier in the afternoon.
.
*That's* fun factor.
.
_H*

 

Dodge Charger R/T Hybrid....it burns gas AND rubber !

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(daver969 @ Apr 14 2006, 06:05 PM) [snapback]239885[/snapback]</div>

I think the larger issue here isn't what cars the automakers choose to make into hybrid vehicles. I believe that Toyota will begin hybridizing their larger vehicles soon, and GM is certainly going to do that as well with the Tahoe.

The larger issue is cultural. Americans have grown too accustomed to cheap gas and cheap but huge trucks and SUVs. It's a matter of reining in the vast American glut.

I disagree that we can't stop people from buying big vehicles. It won't happen overnight, but eventually market forces will wake people to the foolishness of the single-occupant-big-SUV lifestyle that they've enjoyed for so long.

Lately there have been many articles that have blasted hybrid technology as not economically sound... but I think we have to reiterate something which may be all to obvious : big trucks and SUVs are MANY orders of magnitude worse economically for most people.

Hybrid technology represents a new frontier for all automobile technology, but it may not be a viable solution for everyone... but that does not mean that there is no solution. The impact of someone with a huge 10MPG truck switching over to something like a 40 MPG corolla (that he only really needs) is FAR more dramatic than hybridizing that truck.

If a handful of people put down their big SUVs for a midsize or a compact car, or adjust their lifestyle accordingly by moving closer to work, etc, then I'll be very happy.

We are headed into tough times. Fudging numbers aside, the twilight of the SUV and truck era is coming because the cultural change is coming.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(finman @ Apr 14 2006, 06:22 PM) [snapback]239894[/snapback]</div>

One of my coworkers asked me the other day if I was ready to sell my Prius yet His wife drives a Durango and the mileage sucks big wampum. He drives a Hyundai six-cylinder so they're really getting it with the price of gasoline. They have kids who play hockey all over the place so he drives a heck of a lot. He's a friend of mine and I know that he's hurting but he still wanted to know and I told him that I'm getting 54 MPG and it cost $22 to fill up a couple of days ago. It costs him $40 to fill that stupid Durango and he can go, what, 300 miles with that? For $40, I can go at least 900 miles without trying. Perhaps Ford would sell more hybrids if they had one that competed directly with the Prius.

 

I hang out on an SUV web forum (I've actually got two SUVs right now) and whenever the topic turns to gas prices, I love to taunt the other readers by writing things like, "This is insanity - with these gas prices, I'm now spending as much as $10 per week on gas!!! This is crazy, when will it end???"