Featured Anti-Plugin War is Heating up Fast

I would not expect sanity from this epa or doe. Scott Pruitt often did frivolous lawsuits against the EPA in his role of AG of oklahoma. He looked more like a paid lobbiest of the oil and coal industry, he even put a lobbyists issues against the EPA uncensored on his own letter head, which in texas is felony, but business as usual in Oklahoma. Will low oil prices I would expect pruitt to try to get the US more addicted to OPEC oil.

My ex-governor is now in charge of the DOE. As governor he did let through popular provisions that vastly increased renewable energy, but as a presidential candidate he wanted to destroy the DOE. He is not as bad as pruitt, but plenty bad. I do not think he will put up a fight as pruitt moves to hurt the national economic security by pushing oil and coal over plug-ins and renewables. He did have the government censor scientific papers that predicted consequences of global warming on Galveston (an island twice destroyed by huricanes, and rising sea levels make it likely it is destroyed again).

 

The whole concept of government support through research money and tax rebates for ANYTHING is in danger. This administration is dominated by industry insiders who have very different agendas than encouraging alternative energy development.

 

i don't expect much progress in the next 5-10 years. in fact, i'm not sure i'll see it in my lifetime.

 

I word - China
There will be much progress in the next decade regardless of US policy. Low oil prices combined with falling battery prices (thanks US DOE, policy appears to have paid off).

• China: car sales 2008-2017 | Statista
China Targets 800,000 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales In 2017
Even if chinese growth is only 6% their cars should grow at 3%, from 24 million last year. That means 32 million cars 10 years from now. With congested city traffic, and high tailpipe pollution, there is good reason that the government there is promoting plug-ins. Tesla, BMW, and GM will all be fighting for market share, and there is plenty of reason to think PHEVs and BEVs will be part of the luxury market.

These R&D dollars will be well spent, but of course these are global makers and technological improvements will go to domestic markets in the US and Europe. Japan and England, who knows, probably not plug-ins, but for the US, the second biggest car market their is good reason to think that plug-ins will be much bigger sellers as technology gets less expensive. First test the tesla model 3 ;-)

 

actually, the tesla model 3 may not be a good test. there's no way to know who will be buying them. all we can measure is % of total vehicle sales. it will be great if that goes up, outside of california.

 

Made in china, brought here.
Cadillac | 2017 CT6 Plug-In

 

All rebates could disappear tomorrow and it won't kill the electric car.
Would it slow down adoption? Absolutely, but it won't kill them this time around.

The genie is out of the bottle, the horses have left the barn.
Electric cars simply have too many advantages, and more and more people are learning this, experiencing it first hand.

If the U.S. wants to be less competitive in the world marketplace, so be it.

 

Q1 why do you need to know who will be buying them. Probably me ;-) goodcarbadcar will have good stats for the US. Most of the initial ones in 2017 will be california because shipping is fast, so revenue can be recognized faster.

If tesla profitably can build 200,000 of these a year (probably 80,000/year us) in 2019 that tells me bevs have arrived. Those will be worldwide not just california. Point of interest the prius liftback did 99,000 in the US in 2016, won't that mark a major mile stone. 2016 was 76,230. If they do 75,000 X and S and 200,000 model 3 that is growth of 260% or 53% growth per year. Tesla thinks they can beat those numbers, but I'm more conservative. Build an SUV based on the 3 and another roadster and tesla should be 500,000 BEVs by 2021. That is much faster growth in the one company than all companies in hybrids.

 

The NYTimes was not realistic. He paints minor fees by states (substitutes for gaso tax) as some kind of aggressive conspiracy against electric cars. The real story is more and more (blue) states adding incentives, and yet he paints this as more states removing incentives, because Georgia did this 3 years ago. Admittedly we don't know what is coming but I've heard Elon has Donald's ear so what we are hearing (in NYTimes) is hysteria not based in fact.

 

There has been some turnover in staff and business history suggesting neither a contract nor an ear has any permanence.

Bob Wilson

 

it's an american factory, that will be perceived as good. now, on to the workers.

 

okay, i guess the jig is up.

 

I think the best thing that can be done to promote sales of more BEVs and PHEVs is ... make better ones. To me, the choices are not so great.
Sure, Model S is nice, but $75k+ forget it. Bolt? $35k before incentive, Big bucks for pretty small car.
Leaf and all the other 100 mile range choices (eGolf, etc...). No interest here.

Volt, little small and expensive, but not a horrible choice. Prime. Good for those who like Prius.
Fusion Energy with trunk FULL of batteries, nah. CMax Energi with bunch of battery back there, ehhhh.

Few months ago, needed to buy lawnmower as I took over our gardening. Glad I bought an electric rechargable mower. Little more expensive than gas, but it's a nice mower, easy to charge, easy to start and easy to tip on side and clean underneath.

 

Yes, it's about choices, but I think more people will choose an EV when the choices of cars available are better. ....

I'm looking at Feb. '17 US EV sales ...

#1 Model S - to me, cha ching, expensive $$$
#2 Leaf - $30k starting price (Can you drive this thing more than about 100 miles in a day??)
#3 Bolt - 238 miles range, cool, but $35k before incentive and size of a Fit, ... need to really want an EV
..... sorta downhill from there.

WhenTesla get $35k Model 3 out, which looks very sharp, should be a nice boost for EV sales here, maybe with or without tax credits.
Their site says 215 miles range for $35k. With that, it should sell better than Bolt.

 

I am glad you posted. Any chance you might visit an Ioniq and do a trunk/rear, 'load test'?

Also a seat comfort test?

Not trying to sell one but you have a credible reputation.

Bob Wilson

 

Don't confuse "not right for me" with "not right for anyone".
Market share is a continuum, not an on/off switch.

The latest group of EVs started with:
a very expensive, very small little roadster, then
a small sized, short range, $35k hatchback, then
a small plugin hybrid hatchback ~$38k

Prices came down and more plugin hybrids were added and less expensive (but still expensive) more practical long range cars.

And as more options appear, marketshare grows.
As more options continue to appear, marketshare will continue to grow.

Does that mean there will be one for everyone? No, of course not. But growth in marketshare continues to grow, which is a good thing.