Featured 3 Threats That Could Shut Down Prius And Other Hybrid Production Permanently

"The trifecta of change is upon us, and if you do not think so, I suggest crawling out from under the rock and taking a look.
History (for better or worse) is doomed to repeat itself, but not in the same way. These ripples in the space-time continuum are from the past, making our modern-day advancements possible."

Stoney stuff.

 

California Bans Sale Of Gasoline Cars By 2035

California has rolling blackouts because they don't have enough electricity to handle existing demand. Are they banning ownership? Sale of gasoline? After you miss work/school/appointments because you have no electric today you'll be pretty motivated to get around that ban.


The ban is a massive threat to the existence of cars like the Toyota Prius.

What, somehow this affects Toyota, but nobody else? Only Priuses? Toyota will still have the other 49 states at their disposal, so no, no real threat here.


Telsa, Battery Advancements

Any technology that creates a better battery for Tesla to use also creates a better battery for hybrids to use, so no, no threat here. They will get better just as fast as Tesla.


Affordability Of EV

We don't yet know how affordable they will be, and it is kind of hard to guess. Will EV's take over niches? Sure. Take over the entire automotive world? Uh, Elon gets a little enthusiastic sometimes... I think the author was just hard up for clicks, not a lot of substance here...

 

California just has a dream about banning gas car. The reality of the executive order is to allow CARB to keep increase the mix of ZEV cars past 2015, when the program plateaus.

if it did happen, it would only be on the sale of new cars in state.

 

Yep - it won't happen before I stop driving - if it happens at all.

 

Can I throw up now .

 

I'm all for BEVs if they build out the infrastructure enough (which they will eventually). Of course I would make sure I had a manual V8 somewhere for my guilty pleasure. If that law passed in California, I could see it becoming a huge Cuba-like scenario where people keep their cars for generations and hand them down. "I'm so stoked my Dad is letting me have the 2001 Chevy Cavalier!"

 

They won't be as stoked if the Chevy had a tractor engine in it.

Besides, California couldn't keep new gas cars being brought in from out of state.

 

I'd be happy if it just ran!

I guess my scenario would be for the post-San Andreas Fault disaster.

 

Probably would not directly keep them out.

But with new stiff gasoline taxes, license/registration, etc disincentivization they could indirectly mostly achieve that. Right now gasoline taxes remain unpopular because they are inconvenient for the majority who still drive gassers.

 

If it happens, which I don't see happening.

The current ZEV program hits 22% of a large manufacturer's new sales in 2025. It started at 4.5% in 2018. The percent required isn't number of cars, but number of credits. A 100 mile ZEV is worth 1.05 credits to a 350 mile one being 4, with FCEVs possibly getting a bonus for being fast refuelers. Note that the range could be based on unadjusted test figures, like CAFE. PHEVs are worth less, and are classified as a transitional ZEV, and large manufacturers can only use them for minor portion of their needed credits.

If CARB continues the current rate of increase past 2025, they'll only get to 40% by 2035. They'll need to steeply increase that rate for 100%.

 

If they can actually make that mandate stick, which I doubt, the main effect will be to upgrade the current exodus from CA into a mass evacuation, because people will starve if that knucklehead in the governor's mansion gets his way. They're already sleeping on the streets in depression era numbers.

 

All this is certain, the only question is when it will happen.I think

Toyota will have enough time to milk some profit from the hybrids, but eventually they will have to transition to BEV if they wan't to survive.

 

That person is the nephew of the person third in line as President of the US. She taught him well.

 

BEVs are only a part of the future, "the rest" ICEs will have a future well beyond 2035.
Personally I believe Toyota is the most prepared manufacturer for that scenario, because it still develops increasingly efficient ICEs tied to electric powertrains.

 

The cost of ICE is increasing, because of stricter emissions
The cost of EV is reducing, because of economies of scale and technological breakthroughs.

The only uncertain thing is time, it may drag into the 2050, but I doubt it, at least in the developed countries with strict emissions.

 

Are they looking into any alternate fuels for those ICEs, besides hydrogen?
VW/Audi were doing work on renewable diesel and gasoline. On their own, and with partners.

 

AFAIK there is no "alt fuels", just the leverage of an already very good efficiency engines lineup.
Well, we can fuel those with CNG, LPG, etc. and those renewable gasolines. The all-round efficiency is better suited with a fuel sipping engine.

 

A fuel sipping engine will do better sipping designed for the fuel than one adapted for it.
It was a while after the Prius arrived that Toyota provided Brazil one that was even adapted for E100. I don't think they even did an hydrogen ICE. Right now, such a car is much cheaper than a FCEV, and their presence on the road can increase demand for hydrogen fueling stations.