2022 North Atlantic Hurricane season

Here we are again. Some background and seasonal predictions for the pregame show.

2021 Totals recap: 21 Tropical Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes, 146 ACE. Well above average in most stats.

(Move the goalposts) Beginning with 2021 hurricane season outlooks, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) used 1991-2020 as the new 30-year period of record. The updated averages for the Atlantic hurricane season have increased with 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged at 3. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. (122 ACE)

Get yer updating OHC maps here:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html

2022 forecasts:

Forecaster … Named storms … Hurricanes … Major hurricanes … ACE
Colorado State Univ … 19 ……… 9 …………….… 4 …………………….. 160
Tropical Storm Risk …. 18 ……… 8 ………………. 4 …………………..… 138
Accuweather …..… 16 to 20 .…. 6 to 8 ……..… 3 to 5 ………………… –
Weatherbell ……… 18 to 22 …… 6 to 10 ……… 2 to 4 …………….… 160
NC State Univ ……. 17 to 21 ….. 7 to 9 ………… 3 to 5 ………………. 129
Earth Networks …. 18 …………… 9 …………….…. 4 …………………..… 153
Univ of Arizona …. 14 …………… 7 ……………….. 3 ……………………… 129
NOAA (to be announced May 24)

Linkfarm:

https://www.earthnetworks.com/blog/2022-hurricane-season-outlook/
https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/atlantic-hurricane-season-2022-forecast-mk/
https://www.artemis.bm/2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/
https://news.arizona.edu/story/experts-predict-hurricane-season-will-only-be-slightly-above-average
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/average-atlantic-hurricane-season-to-reflect-more-storms

 

Here is a nice graphic of return intervals. Over the same time period Puerto Rico had nine hurricanes by my count. It does not include San Ciriaco in 1899 (a beast) or any of the other beasts since 2010.



PR is a relatively small target. It is clearly unwise to have geography that 'sticks out', or to be Houston.

 

I forgot to mention CFAN, a climate-services company run by retired climatologist Dr. Judith Curry. CFAN provides hurricane predictions only to paid subscribers:

https://www.cfanclimate.net/products-tropical-cyclones

So if those turn up on internet, or predictions from other subscription-only services do, I'll not post them here.

There will be no links and that's my new favorite power phrase.

 

Another excerpt from Earth Networks' powerpoint. Which they posted online, so it's OK



Three numbers I circled in red are NOAA CPC current baseline for Named tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes The are in the source image, so I must tell you what they mean

I post this because not-so-many years ago, we tussled here about whether things have changed in N Atl. Now that can be answered in the affirmative for this area. Causality is not implied.

A better image (which I might make someday) would include 95% confidence intervals or some tighter metric of variation upon these 30-year moving averages. One could reach earlier, but not by much - 'BestTrack' starts in 1850.

There were some whacking years earlier (Spanish treasure ships sunk, well-dated sediment bursts, etc.) but those records are incomplete for such a comparison.

 

Let me say that I started this a few days early (no NOAA forecast yet) because I saw internet clickbait that 2022 will be a real a** kicker. So, let's get vaccinated eh? 2022 is expected by all public forecasts to kick less than 2021 did.

The truth of the matter will come along later, but CIMSS can tell you right now that no early action is on:

North Atlantic - 850mb Vorticity - Latest Available - Large Scale

Early action was part of 2021's notoriety. 2022 will be above average (unless you follow Univ Arizona), but unlikely to kick like 2021. Do seasonal prep as sensible ones always do, but don't quake in yer dang boots.

 

Rum, water, batteries and candles - in that order.

After 1998 Hurricane Georges, street power was down for months for me in Puerto Rico. I exceeded my lifetime sensible consumption of Vienna sausages (TM) and similar products. So I no longer list them as priorities. Tofu, me hearties. Aye.

 

NOAA predicts
14 to 21 named
6 to 10 hurricanes
3 to 6 majors

No ACE prediction is listed at
NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Must be said that NOAA predictions span wider ranges than any listed previously. That's how to not be wrong. I guess.

 

2016 was predicted as near normal but it turned out to be below normal.

2014 was predicted as below normal and it turned out that way.

I am unaware of any presidential effect on hurricane seasonal forecasts. Factors that are considered are interesting and possibly worth discussing.

 

I have not quickly discerned when NOAA started making seasonal forecasts but it was before 2000. William Gray at Colorado State started in 1984, and since his passing that project has been continued by Phil Klotzbach. My impression is that all such forecasters use the same predictive variables. They vary in how to weight them in different years.

They do not involve politics or womens' wear, you silly boys. How media spin such forecasts is a different matter. But I'm trying to hold the line here on data and quantitative analyses.

 

NOAA started making seasonal forecasts in 1998. So if somebody wished to 'facts and data' them, that would be the starting point.