2010's Not Jumping Off the Lots Everywhere

Good Point!

 

Unless they start charging over MSRP.

 

Hopefully, the competition from the Insight and the Jetta TDI will help keep prices reasonable.

 

Prices will probably remain reasonable, but if gas prices go up (which looks likely given the spiralling cost of crude) you can expect month long waiting lists and mandatory dealer added 'options'.

 

Good for the enthusiasts who want a car right away!

Toyota's advertising campaign is not helping them. I really have no idea how anyone else would know there's a new model out based on what I've seen. No one I talk to about my new car is aware of it until I tell them.

 

The dealership probably is already trying to get some big markups over MSRP and that's the reason they haven't sold.

 

Gas prices will likely rise over the summer and drop again later.
Supply of the new Prius is very poor now but in 6 months, Toyota will be able to produce a huge number if demand warrants it.
6 months from now will probably be the best time to buy.

 

Certain models are not selling as well. For instance, I have a III gray, gray, base on the lot right now.. available. I have a few orders for IV and V's.

As far as the market goes, I don't think you will see prices dropping until the 09's are off the lot. IF Toyota drops the 0% next month, that will keep the 10's at MSRP. If they don't, it will keep the MSRP price until the 09's are gone.

 

IMO, I just don't see gas prices going up to "alarming rates" like in the recent past to force a premium or waiting list scenario. At $3/gallon it's not going to happen...probably not even at $3.50/gallon. Waiting lists on the 2010 Prius are not going to happen....not this summer.

While the Prius is still the benchmark for hybrid technology and highest mpg there are now many other options out there (and at a lower cost...appealing to cash-strapped consumers who prefer a $300/month payment vs. $400/month if they are buying a "new" car). There are far more new cars available than consumers looking to purchase new cars than in past years...and who's to say consumers are buying new cars vs. used cars.

A year ago, wallets were "alot" looser than they are now (job losses and unemployment rates were not as rampant as they are now) and people were still in the "new car" buying range financially.

Right now, panic is not affording gas...it's affording your mortgage at this point in the game...

Google - public data

April 2009 US unemployment rate = 8.6%
April 2008 US unemployment rate = 4.8%

And further proof panic is not going to drive people to the local Toyota dealership to buy a 2010 Prius...or go on a waiting list for one...

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

May 25, 2009 avg. US gas price/gallon = $2.43
May 25, 2008 avg. Us gas price/gallon = $3.93

 

Agreed.

I saw that lame spot where the Gen III tows the sun last night during the Lakers / Nuggets game. It ran during the 'Toyota Halftime Show.' You'd think Toyota USA would have produced a male targeted spot for this event. They should have ran something cool, like the Superman spot or Bossdowner's Blue Man Group spot.

And has anyone seen the billboards? "Butterfly Approved!" Really? They said they want to go mainstream with the Gen III, but clearly the ads are geared for older ladies.

 

I forgot dealers still have '09s left to sell as a priority before 2010s.
So, 6 months will take care of that too. Toyota should be capable of building the 2010 at full production capacity by then if there is a demand that justifies that much production.
There would really need to be a huge and quite sudden turn around in the economy for Toyota to not be able to build them fast enough to keep up with demand.

 

I'm starting to feel like Toyota has been doing some good PR work in the media to keep making it sound like demand is higher than it is ... my preferred dealer has been sitting on his for over a week (Pkg V in Winter Gray) while the one here just happens to have a Pkg III in Blizzard Pearl sitting on the showroom unclaimed. Both said they had waiting lists a month or two ago.

Tough times for the general public!

 

Just my guess - I doubt msrp (without dealer nonsense) will last much more than a couple of months, and maybe less. The skyrocketing unemployment is going to dampen new car sales for a long time. In conjunction with Honda Insight II competition, the few buyers who exist have the upper hand.

Don't let any dealer convince you otherwise. If I was car shopping I would send out emails offering to buy today at $1000 off msrp, and I wouldn't agree to pay any local advert fees or higher than minimum title and licensing.

 

Can you imagine Toyota execs last year anticipating the launch to the new 2010 Prius, expecting gas prices to be $4 or $5 a gallon and not knowing the economic downturn was coming?
They must have thought they had a license to print money!

 

It's a catch-22 for the auto industry and Toyota. Even if gas hits $4/gallon...

No unemployed consumer is going to purchase a 2010 Prius (they are in "circle the wagons mode").

No recently "back to work" consumer is going to purchase a 2010 Prius (they are in "collect as much cash as possible and stockpile for the next emergency").

No employed consumer with a mortgage is going to purchase a 2010 Prius (unless they are downgrading from a more expensive monthly payment).

Of course, the 2010 Prius is going to do very well vs. other hybrid vehicles...it's a great car. The thousands they sold on pre-order are Prius/hybrid enthusiasts that were going to buy the car anyway (despite the economy). There will be several other thousands that are in the market for a new car, do their homework and decide the Prius is a better investment than other hybrids.

But, Prius sales (2010 or otherwise) will not approach last year's numbers...not even close. With a world crisis in effect a new car is not at the top of everyone's priorities right now.

http://bioage.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c4fbe53ef01156fd010dc970b-800wi

** From Green Car Congress April 2009 report comparing March 2008 vs. March 2009 Prius sales (will be interesting to see June/July/Aug 2008 vs. 2009):

Toyota. Sales of the Toyota Prius were off 56.8% by volume from March 2008, down to 8,924 units.

 

I believe the cars that "we've all been waiting for" to arrive are III with sunroof, IV with sunroof or NAV, and V package, with or without AT.

The II's are going to be the slower sellers, as they are much like the old II's in the sense of "what ya get" w/o higher tech goodies to punch up the car and - no back up camera (whoopie, in my opinion) and only 1-door smart key... and the III with no options is just a II with JBL and a few extra goodies anyway.

That said, those are the cars with the worst profit margins so what's sitting is apt to go at MSRP without many dealerships adding junk to them.

Dianne

 

I remember going to the dealership last year before the price of gas shot up. There were at least 10 Prius at the lot at the time. When gas shot up to around the $4.00, you couldn't find one

 

Much of the sales of new cars will also depend on how hard-hit the economy is in a particular region. The OP is in or near Chicago, which has been hit pretty hard by the recession. I would expect that new car sales are lower there than in other regions where employment has been less affected.

 

This link below that I posted before breaks down unemployment rates by state and if you click the "+" box next to each state you can break it down further by county in each state. Interesting little bit of info...

Michigan is scary...Mackinac, Baraga and Presque Isle counties are 23-28% unemployed...combined population in those counties (accoring to Wiki is about 35,000) meaning about 9,000 people in those areas are jobless...pretty much wiping them off the map.

Google - public data