More Details and Photos Released for Prius Plug-In

Based on your stated daily mileage, even with a 50-60 EV capacity, a PHEV is not worth the extra premium. (IMHO).

 

Indeed - we would have the same problem here in Québec. And that is in addition to the fact that battery power usually decreases significantly in cold temperature (I dont know about Li-ion though).

One thing I will be curious to know is the total lifespan of the battery pack. Can it be recharged 300+ times per year for 10 years before needing a replacement?

 

PHEV is great and I am very interested.

The list of features listed in the OP would defiantly put it in the running.
But since I drive a long distance each day (125 to 150 miles) I would like to see that the system is recharged during those long drives so plug in could be a weekend thing for short trips around town.

However the big consideration is cost. If it's 2 or 3K it's doable but at 10K plus, it won't happen for me.

 

After months on this forum, this is the first thread that I must say I agree with 100%. This is exactly how I use my car, for the same mileage, and exactly how I rationalized buying it.

 

At those two 'triggers' that's when the PHEV's begin to be interesting for me. As with the Prius and the other hybrids there are other considerations which also have value such as...

• supporting the technology of the future
• weaning myself and others off the use of petro-fuel
• improving the quality of life.
• not supporting Big Oil and the market price of petro-products

It's not purely a dollars and cent's calculation.

 

See, to me, those triggers mean nothing to me from an analytical standpoint. They are purely psychological.

Any time you drive more than 12 miles, you are maximizing the EV capabilities of the car, and getting the biggest bang for your buck!

In fact - you are doing more in terms of reducing overall fuel consumption and all your other bullet points by replacing your Prius with a PHEV than someone who drives less than 12 miles a day.

Now, your fuel consumption isn't going to go down a whole lot as a percentage of your total fuel consumption (about a quarter gallon a day out of ~3 gallons) but you will be driving over 4,000 EV miles a year. More if your driving isn't non-stop and you have charging opportunities.

Your suggestion that a PHEV Prius will cost $5k more than the regular one is totally off base, IMO.

It's pretty clear that Toyota is aiming to keep the cost of the PHEV low by keeping the battery small. We're probably talking about a 4-5kWh pack here (~3kWh is needed to travel 12 miles). By the time they are ready to start selling it in volume, I'd expect the premium to be in the ballpark of $2,000, though I expect the "early adopter" price to be a bit higher.

 

I don't hear many talk about the following, but

one might need to use fuel stabilizer in a good plug-in hybrid.

But, that wouldn't be such a bad thing.

Do you get it?

 

I'd love a PHEV Prius. Like many others - there is a large cost consideration here too so the price would have to be right.

Where I live, many trips are either 5-10 miles or you have to go over the mountains. When you travel down the mountain, the current battery gets topped off only about 1/4 of the way down - so lots of opportunity to charge it up more on a trip. In general - the charge on my battery tends to be 50% or greater unless I try to run it down (using EV mode or other driving techniques to try to run on battery as much as possible). I'm sure Toyota did some studying of how much storage and charge capacity would be most useful and decided you didn't need all that much - I find the system extremely balanced as is. It would be nice if the GM's were able to generate just a bit more charge - but that's a different problem, isn't it. However - those all electric trips are not currently possible and would be nice.

One nice feature that could easily by put into a PHEV is an engine block heater for cold weather. That would improve mileage too, and fairly simply to do if the power was all there already.

My understanding of the mileage projected for the Leaf - apparently the battery on the Prius only discharges to about 40% of capacity and then only charges to about 60%. On the Leaf it sounds like they intend to operate from about 15% to about 85%, so they are getting more charge out of the battery - at the possible risk of shorter battery life. Currently Toyota could tweak those numbers on the Prius too - but for most it wouldn't do any good unless your could fill it up via plug. They use a different battery and it sounds like the Li battery for the Leaf my itself cost $10k or more. They were talking about selling the car and leasing the battery. Much the same deal with the Volt from what I've read.

 

I also think people get way too hung up on the PHEV range. In general short range PHEVs make sense for just about everybody, long range only for those who drive long distances on a regular basis. You are only getting your money's worth out of the PHEV if you regularly deplete the battery and re-charge it from the grid as often as possible. For the first generation, short range PHEVs will be of benefit to a much larger percent of the population.

Here's a simplified/extreme case to try and visualize the situation. Lets say 2kWh of grid energy stored in your battery should take you about 7 miles, saving ~ 0.15 gal of gas. This is equally true if you drive 7 miles, or 70. Lets say this pack cost $1000, and for the moment assume the cost of electricity is negligible and that the pack will last 10 years. In this case, the 7 mile driver sees inf MPG, but the 70 mile driver will only see his mileage increase 2mpg from 46 to 48mpg. However, both drivers saved 0.15 gallons of gas, worth 37.5c at $2.50 a gallon. Over 10 years both earn an annualized ROI on their $1000 of 3.7% if gas stays flat at $2.50, 6.4% if gas averages $3.00/gal, and 9.2% if gas averages $3.50. If we flip the situation, where now both drivers are driving a 70 mile PHEV that cost $10k, the 70 mile driver would earn the same ROI (10x cost, 10x savings), but the 7 mile driver would get no extra benefit for the extra $9k spent, killing his ROI.

Next you have to consider the distribution of how many people typically drive how far. Here is the 2003 distribution of round trip commute distances.

> 10 miles: 71 %
> 20 miles: 49 %
> 30 miles: 32 %
> 40 miles: 22 %
> 50 miles: 15 %
> 60 miles: 10 %
> 70 miles: 8 %

Based on the above example, we can say that this is also the percent of people for whom a PHEV with the listed range would return the maximum possible ROI. For the remainder, the PHEV cost more than required to meet their needs, decreasing their likelihood of their choosing to purchase it. With a 10 mile PHEV, 71% of the population would get their money's worth out of the battery. With a 40 mile range, only 22% would get their money's worth and for over half the population the battery would be twice as expensive as it needs to be.

Eventually battery costs will continue to fall, and this will be less of an issue. Its also pretty clear that there will be room in the market for many different PHEVs of differing ranges. But when it comes to the decision of where to balance the first PHEV on the cost/range scale, it seems pretty clear to me that short range makes more sense.

Of course people are not necessarily logical or rational, so when it comes to what will actually sell thats a whole different question.

Rob

 

That would indeed be cool - however in cold areas (such as here ) the amount of heat required to keep the cabin warm is enormous. My sister had an electric cabin heater, a kind of hair dryer (1000 watts) that you would plug in an hour before leaving home in the morning, that was supposed to warm up the cabin. In cold weather (e.g. -20C and lower), the heater on for half an hour, the cabin was still very cold, perhaps just a few degrees above outside.

I have not done any calculations, but I believe a sufficiently powerful electric heater would just drain the battery too rapidly. A propane or natural gas heater would probably be a better idea for very cold countries.

 

There is a good deal of heat from the inverter if that can be brought into the cabin maybe around 300W. Its not enough to heat the cabin but its free heat.

 

1000w is nothing.

The Tesla has a 3kW heater.

It takes about 15kW just to maintain a steady 60mph, so at full blast, the heater will reduce your range by about 17%. Not too bad for extreme cold.

 

I have found Miscrms´s reply quite interesting. If the problem looks to be battery technology and battery cost, why can´t automakers sell a car with upgradeable battery kits? So we can decided how much we want to pay in order to get EV extra miles. Also in the near future we will see battery price fall and battery technology improve so we can just upgrade our battery instead of getting a complete new car.

 

Apparently the current Prius (III) is already equipped with an electric heater... Can you confirm?

 

The Gen3 Prius comes with 495W PTC heater as supplement.
It is said the Prius plug-in comes with heat pump A/C which works as the main cabin heating.

Ken@Japan

 

Interesting - I guess they will need an electric heater as well for colder climates (heat pumps dont produce much heat below -22C)

Thanks for the info!

 

I think a conventional heater by engine coolant is used under extreme cold condition, so the engine has to run in this case.

Ken@Japan